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Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern Eagles

Sun Belt·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1376#97
SP+
-5.8#86
FPI
-8.0
AP
NR
Next@ Jacksonville State · Wk 3Win prob 32%Model +7.5
Talent #78 (634.2)Recruiting class #896% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Georgia Southern

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Georgia Southern's front is the wrong test for Clemson

Matchup · 5d ago

Max Johnson produced 8 of Georgia Southern's 15 explosive plays

Matchup · 6d ago

Roster · 122 players

FR 22SO 28JR 26SR 46
#PlayerPosClHtWt
7Max JohnsonQBSR6'5"220
9Weston BryanQBSO6'3"245
10Charlie JohnstonQBSO6'6"215
11Harrison Faulkner Jr.QBFR6'0"190
14Turner HeltonQBSR6'2"175
17Trey TownsendQBJR6'1"215
5Terrance GibbsRBSR6'0"210
6David MbadingaRBSR5'7"190
16Jamarian SamuelRBSR5'9"205
20Ty CummingsRBFR5'8"185
27Tyrese WoodgettRBSO5'10"190
29Bre'Lan MareusRBSO5'9"200
33Bryce BakerRBJR5'11"205
35Taeo ToddRBJR5'8"195
37Foster OrrisRBSO5'9"195
2Ashton HollinsWRSR6'5"200
12Cam KingWRJR6'0"200
13King PhillipsWRJR6'1"190
15Taylor BradshawWRSR6'0"185
18Andre Greene Jr.WRSR6'2"205
19Josh DallasWRSR6'1"210
21Zay HilliardWRFR6'3"210
22Jarvis MathurinWRFR5'7"165
24Peyton PlottWRSO5'7"160
26Antavious MurphyWRJR5'9"190
38Kevin DouglasWRSR5'8"175
40Brandon PaulWRSO5'9"165
42CJ DockeryWRFR6'1"210
81Jeremiah WareWRSO5'10"190
85Kam MikellWRJR6'2"195
88Alex TaylorWRJR6'2"200
89Noble JohnsonWRSR6'3"210
48Aubrey HeathTESO6'1"210
80JQ CrosbyTEFR6'3"220
82Jackson LongTESR6'4"230
83Jack BerquistTEFR6'3"220
84JP MikhaelTESR6'3"235
86Henry GregoryTESO6'7"230
87River HelmsTESR6'4"230
50Jaylen SlaughterOLJR6'3"260
51Matthew WilliamsOLSR6'3"315
53Ty FurnishOLSR6'3"295
55Ethan WilliamsOLSR6'2"295
56Mo Clipper Jr.OLSR6'4"320
62Liam ThompsonOLFR6'4"280
63Colin AlexanderOLJR6'4"305
64Caelan WilliamsOLSR6'7"305
65Cole NorredOLSO6'3"290
66Jayvon PerryOLFR6'3"285
67Joshua FordOLSO6'2"305
68Jace MoldenOLSO6'1"285
70Jalen BurgessOLJR6'1"290
71Jaden JohnsonOLFR6'5"260
72Josh RaymondOLJR6'4"295
73Zach PearsonOLJR6'5"275
74Grady HowellOLFR6'5"285
75Kingtriton SamuelaOLJR6'2"300
76Brandon StonerOLSO6'3"325
50Caleb EllisDLSO6'1"270
55Korey JordanDLJR6'3"290
57Latrell BullardDLSR6'1"350
90O'Marion BrownDLSR6'2"290
92Marcus DownsDLJR6'5"285
93Caleb MooreDLJR6'2"300
94Elijah FearsDLSO6'2"305
95Kwon McGinneyDLSR6'2"310
96Stephone RossDLFR6'4"280
99Jeremiah TicketDLSO6'3"260
1Brandon TysonLBSR6'1"220
4Anthony BynumLBSR6'3"255
5Diego AvilesLBSR6'1"230
9Festus DaviesLBSR6'2"235
10Jacob HammondsLBSR6'2"195
11Kebba SeckaLBSR6'3"260
14Rashon Myles Jr.LBSR6'1"225
15Holden TriceLBSR5'10"210
16AJ Brown Sr.LBSR6'1"200
18MJ StroudLBSR6'2"245
30CJ Allen Jr.LBJR5'10"220
34JaMari WhiteheadLBSR6'2"235
35Caleb ButlerLBSO6'1"235
41Brandon AlfordLBSR5'11"205
42Braxtin McLesterLBSO6'3"220
43Ethan JohnsonLBSO6'3"220
44Nigel Eldridge Jr.LBSO6'2"260
45Colton VeltkampLBSO6'1"220
47Xavier BrownLBFR6'1"230
48Amari WilsonLBSO6'1"245
52Kru CaseyLBFR6'0"225
59Alec UpshawLBFR6'3"235
91DA LoganLBFR6'3"225
97Eli AndersLBJR6'3"260
98Uche IlohLBJR6'5"265
2Aaron SearsDBSR5'10"180
6Jakyri JonesDBSR5'10"195
12Tracy Hill Jr.DBSR6'2"195
13Aidan McCowanDBSR5'11"170
17Jayden JacksonDBFR6'0"180
19Fabo ChaneyDBSO6'1"180
20Jaquari BrownDBJR6'1"170
21Carlo ThompsonDBSR6'0"180
22Chace CalicutDBFR6'3"195
23Gregory Delaine Jr.DBSR6'0"180
24Phillip GladneyDBJR5'11"175
26Dariyon GordonDBFR6'1"170
27RJ IsaacDBFR5'10"170
28Tylin DrakefordDBFR5'10"175
29Devin CollierDBJR5'10"180
31Chance GambleDBSR6'2"185
32Jaylen BentleyDBJR6'0"175
36Jadaan CooperDBJR5'10"170
37Max HaertelDBFR5'11"200
38Noah ManghamDBSR5'11"195
39Temirez Williams Jr.DBJR5'8"180
95Tripp BryantPKSO5'9"180
97Blake FordPKSR6'1"215
98TJ Hartley IIIPKSR5'11"175
99Donal DempseyPKSO6'0"195
25Alex SmithPSR6'6"230
41Chason GlennLSSO6'2"235
46Gavin KurpisLSSO5'10"210
93Gaines WoodLSSR5'11"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
19.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
11.0
scoring defense
Differential
+8.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
389.5#79
Yards / play
5.4#105
Passing yards / game
297.5#27
Rushing yards / game
92.0#129
First downs / game
20.0#80
3rd down %
30.0%#125
4th down %
25.0%#107
Time of possession
32:07#42
Defense
Yards allowed / game
232.0#22
Yards / play allowed
3.5#9
Pass yards allowed / game
153.0#35
Rush yards allowed / game
79.0#27
3rd down % allowed
21.9%#15
Sacks
8#8
Tackles for loss
24#2
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#24
Takeaways
4#22
Giveaways
2#48
Penalties / game
7.0#76
Penalty yards / game
71.0#112

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

heavily pass-leaning

Georgia Southern throws it: Clay Helton's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 137th at defending the run, and they are 137th at closing out passing downs.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Georgia Southern has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Defenserunning it
    #137
    projected
  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #137
    projected
  • Defensethe push the line gets
    #136
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
4.8 – 7.2
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
3.8
of 10 games
Bowl odds
31%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
59%
vs App State
Toughest
9%
vs Houston

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 26% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (26%)Bowl eligible 31% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBMax Johnson, Weston Bryan
+17.7 EPA
RBJamarian Samuel, David Mbadinga +2
+8.9 EPA
TERiver Helms
+4.6 EPA
WRJosh Dallas, Ashton Hollins
+3.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBMax Johnson
~$671K
EPA +15.30.169/play90 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1428th#100
Def-0.1796th#6
Explosiveness
Off1.3057th#60
Def1.0288th#17
Field position
Off76.797th#5
Def67.588th#18
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off2.185th#131
Def1.8391st#14
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 2
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.1823rd#106
Off · rush
0.0628th#99

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0628th#99
Def-0.1889th#16
Passing
Off0.1823rd#107
Def-0.0493rd#10

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.63#23
2nd-level / open-field
1.34 / 0.83
Power / stuff (off)
60.0% / 8.6%
Havoc — total (def)
27.1%#7
Havoc — front 7 / DB
20.0% / 7.1%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.00
Def-0.21
Pass downs
Off0.39
Def-0.11

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.07#1090.43#350.39#94
Defense-0.19#30-0.08#28-0.31#4

Elo Trajectory

Charleston SouthernFinal
Elo rating 1376 → 1359-17 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1022nd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2098th
  • Offense success rate36%12th
  • Defense success rate allowed25%96th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs37%6th
  • Offense success — passing downs33%53rd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs27%97th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs22%73rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.364th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.338th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9938th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.945th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.045th
  • Defense line yards allowed1.696th
  • Offense highlight yards0.6024th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.4969th
  • Offense power success0.5017th
  • Defense power success allowed0.7543rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1659th
  • Defense stuff rate0.3597th

Third down

  • Third down conversion31%10th
  • Third down distance faced7.042nd
  • Third down conversion allowed23%91st
  • Third down distance forced9.899th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1260th
  • Net success rate — second half0.0956th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.508th
  • Points per drive allowed1.571st
  • Average starting field position201st
  • Opponent starting field position395th
  • Available yards gained25%10th
  • Available yards allowed40%76th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive86%65th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
  • Points per scoring opportunity0.584th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.585th
  • Three-and-out rate57%4th
  • Three-and-outs forced27%57th

CORE

  • CORE offense-10.45th
  • CORE defense-3.872nd
  • CORE overall-6.617th

Roster

  • Returning usage21%22nd
  • Returning EPA19.47th
  • Team talent composite63444th
  • Recruiting class rank89.036th
  • Recruiting class points18236th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Balanced offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.144#100 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.177#107
Rush EPA/play
+0.064#99
Explosiveness
1.302#60
Pts/opportunity
2.18#131
Success rate
38.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.112 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — top 5 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.166#6 · elite
Havoc rate (total)
27.1%#7
Front-7 havoc
20.0%
DB havoc
7.1%
Big play rate allowed
1.022#17
Success rate allowed
27.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

Points per game
19.0
Points allowed/game
11.0
Scoring margin/game
+8.0
Turnover margin
+2won 4 · lost 2
Production returning
6%
Talent rank (247)
#78

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE28thEXPLOSIVENESS57thFINISHING5thFIELD POS97thDEFENSE96thHAVOC96th50th100th
Offense
28th
Explosiveness
57th
Finishing
5th
Field Pos
97th
Defense
96th
Havoc
96th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-12.2
#112
Offense
-11.3
#127
Defense
+0.9
#79
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 14 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.501.47
Starting field positionown 20.1own 38.6
Available yards25.4%39.9%
Scoring opportunities85.7%100.0%
Points per opportunity0.581.47
Three-and-out rate57.1%26.7%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
77.8%
Expected, given the spots
62.4%
Over expected
+15.4
Fourth down vs peers
-8
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Georgia Southern is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Georgia Southern in 2026

by EPA/play distance
UCFSP+ +5.9
Off EPA/play +0.104Def EPA/play -0.106Elo 1465
Match
96%
OklahomaSP+ +21.7
Off EPA/play +0.175Def EPA/play -0.099Elo 1799
Match
96%
SyracuseSP+ +2.7
Off EPA/play +0.158Def EPA/play -0.087Elo 1288
Match
95%
Texas A&MSP+ +23.9
Off EPA/play +0.224Def EPA/play -0.179Elo 1849
Match
95%
DelawareSP+ -7.6
Off EPA/play +0.191Def EPA/play -0.091Elo 1404
Match
95%
BaylorSP+ +4.9
Off EPA/play +0.166Def EPA/play -0.043Elo 1506
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +7.3, #45 of 1282016: -15.8, #110 of 1282017: -16.7, #110 of 1302018: +0.1, #63 of 1302019: -1.3, #67 of 1302020: +9.7, #30 of 1242021: -13.2, #102 of 1302022: -8.3, #95 of 1312023: -9.5, #97 of 1332024: -8.0, #93 of 1342025: -14.7, #105 of 1362026: -12.2, #112 of 138
20152026
Now -12.2 · #112 of 138Best +9.7 in 2020Worst -16.7 in 2017

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
1.0+0.0
20257-64-4
54%
6.2+0.8
20248-56-2
62%
5.7+2.3
20236-73-5
46%
4.9+1.1
20226-73-5
46%
4.3+1.7
20213-92-6
25%
4.6-1.6
20208-54-4
62%
10.0-2.0
20197-65-3
54%
6.0+1.0
201810-36-2
77%
8.4+1.6
20172-102-6
17%
3.2-1.2

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.5%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.1-6.0. Wins the Sun Belt in 6.8%.

If they finish with…

51%
1 loss
4.2%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 51%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

up 0.1 points since preseason.

  • At 1 loss they are 51% where the average Sun Belt team is 36%.
  • The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.5% of seasons, having won their league in 97% of those.

Georgia Southern’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk4vs Houston2.1
  • wk6vs James Madison1.3
  • wk7at Old Dominion1.0
  • wk12at Troy1.0
  • wk13vs Louisiana Tech0.9
  • wk9vs App State0.8

Who to root for

Games Georgia Southern is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk4New Mexico State over New Mexico0.3
  • wk6Fresno State over Boise State0.3
  • wk11Oregon State over Boise State0.3
  • wk12App State over UL Monroe0.3
  • wk5Utah State over Boise State0.3
  • wk4Eastern Michigan over Lindenwood0.2
The full playoff picture →

Sun Belt

East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.2-3.86 of 14 by title odds
6.8%
Wins the Sun Belt
12%
Reaches the title game

The Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Georgia Southern can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6James Madison at Georgia Southern16.9
  • wk7Georgia Southern at Old Dominion11.5
  • wk9App State at Georgia Southern9.9
  • wk13Louisiana Tech at Georgia Southern9.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →

If not the playoff, then

59%
Bowl eligible
59%
Placed in a bowl
0.5%
In the playoff
41%
Season over in November

Georgia Southern is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Frisco Bowl9.0%
  • New Orleans Bowl8.8%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl7.4%
  • Boca Raton Bowl7.0%
  • Cure Bowl6.7%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl6.2%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.