Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Carolina PanthersMarket
- Book
- +3
- o47.5
- Exchange
- +2.9
- 40% CAR
- Volume
- 641k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Carolina Panthers is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- +1.3
- Panthers
- Win prob
- 54%
- Bears
- Likely range
- -18 to 15
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1399 − 1538 = -5.6 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -3.6 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- -1.3 Panthers
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1538#16
- FPI rank
- #162026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1399#23
- FPI rank
- #252026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Panthers 0–2- 2024 wk 5Panthers at Bears10–36Bears
- 2023 wk 10Panthers at Bears13–16Bears
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
7 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
1,209 trades · $26,506Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 1,209 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus +3| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 | +0.5 | +0.04 |
| Kalshi | +2.9 | +0.13 | -0.05 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 46.5
176 trades · $7,812Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 46.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 37% of the money- Carolina Panthers11,996 @ 0.40$4,798611×
- Carolina Panthers2,399 @ 0.40$960122×
- Carolina Panthers1,104 @ 0.40$44156×
- Chicago Bears666 @ 0.61$40652×
- Carolina Panthers960 @ 0.40$38449×
- Carolina Panthers714 @ 0.40$28636×
- Carolina Panthers672 @ 0.40$26934×
- Carolina Panthers600 @ 0.40$24031×
- Carolina Panthers600 @ 0.40$24031×
- Carolina Panthers600 @ 0.40$24031×
- Carolina Panthers504 @ 0.40$20226×
- Chicago Bears317 @ 0.61$19425×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $7.86), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.39 / 0.40 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.