Rangers at D-backs
TEX––
AZ–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
Model read · D-backs's starter brings the bigger strikeout edge (22% vs 17%).
- Ben Peoples10d rest
- Kumar Rocker8d rest
- Jacob Latz6d rest
- Trevor Williams3d rest · 18p/3d
- Tyler Alexander3d rest · 22p/3d
- Robert Garcia2d rest · 9p/3d
- Robby Ahlstrom2d rest · 44p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Gerardo Carrillo5d rest
- Jose Cabrera5d rest
- Brandyn Garcia5d rest
- Jonathan Loáisiga4d rest
- Juan Morillo4d rest
- Kade Strowd4d rest
- Blake Walston4d rest
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.