Reds at Brewers
CIN––
MIL–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
Model read · Reds's starter brings the bigger strikeout edge (31% vs 21%); Reds gets the more durable arm, easing bullpen pressure.
- Sam Moll8d rest
- Emilio Pagán6d rest
- Brandon Williamson5d rest
- Graham Ashcraft4d rest
- Tony Santillan3d rest · 18p/3d
- Pierce Johnson3d rest · 24p/3d
- Tejay Antone1d rest · 4p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Andrew Vaughn12d rest
- Grant Anderson6d rest
- Antonio Senzatela4d rest
- Trevor Megill4d rest
- DL Hall4d rest
- Aaron Ashby4d rest
- Chad Patrick4d rest
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.