Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia EaglesMarket
- Book
- -6
- o44.5
- Exchange
- -5.8
- 68% PHI
- Volume
- 396k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Philadelphia Eagles is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -7.9
- Eagles
- Win prob
- 73%
- Eagles
- Likely range
- -9 to 24
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1579 − 1360 = +8.8 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +5.6 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +7.9 Eagles
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1360#27
- FPI rank
- #222026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1579#11
- FPI rank
- #92026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Eagles 3–2- 2025 wk 18Commanders at Eagles24–17Commanders
- 2025 wk 16Eagles at Commanders29–18Eagles
- 2024 wk 21Commanders at Eagles23–55Eagles
- 2024 wk 16Eagles at Commanders33–36Commanders
- 2024 wk 11Commanders at Eagles18–26Eagles
From the 2024 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
5 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
1,684 trades · $67,047Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 1,684 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -5.9| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6 | -1.5 | -0.13 |
| Kalshi | -5.8 | -1.35 | +0.12 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 44.5
119 trades · $9,872Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 44.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 55% of the money- Philadelphia Eagles10,714 @ 0.68$7,286840×
- Philadelphia Eagles8,286 @ 0.68$5,634650×
- Philadelphia Eagles7,777 @ 0.68$5,288610×
- Philadelphia Eagles5,151 @ 0.68$3,503404×
- Philadelphia Eagles1,438 @ 0.68$978113×
- Philadelphia Eagles1,431 @ 0.68$973112×
- Philadelphia Eagles1,006 @ 0.68$68479×
- Philadelphia Eagles719 @ 0.68$48956×
- Philadelphia Eagles719 @ 0.68$48956×
- Philadelphia Eagles714 @ 0.68$48656×
- Philadelphia Eagles685 @ 0.68$46654×
- Philadelphia Eagles659 @ 0.68$44852×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $8.67), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.67 / 0.68 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.