@ Oklahoma · Wk 3Win prob 10%Model +19.5Schedule & Results
CMUCentral MichiganW38-7✓Wk 2vsMERCMercyhurstW70-7✓Wk 3@OUOklahoma+19.510%Wk 4@
NMSUNew Mexico State-11.377%Wk 5vs
UTEPUTEP-25.195%Wk 7@
HAWHawai'i+6.036%Wk 8vs
NDSUNorth Dakota State-9.773%Wk 9@
SJSUSan José State-19.491%Wk 10@
NEVNevada-9.272%Wk 11vs
UNLVUNLV-1.453%Wk 12@
WYOWyoming-11.075%Wk 13vs
AFAir Force-6.064%Team Leaders
Luke MogaPassing198 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Scottre HumphreyRushing174 yds · 3 TD · 6.2 avg
Cade KeithReceiving5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD
Mercury SwaimTackles10 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on New Mexico
All news →New Mexico dismantles Central Michigan, 38-7
Strip the home field and our number is 12 where the market's is 7
Roster · 115 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jack Layne | QB | SR | 6'2" | 209 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 3 | Gabriel Motschenbacher | QB | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 10 | Luke Moga | QB | JR | 6'1" | 208 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 12 | James Laubstein | QB | SR | 6'3" | 209 | Bethany, CT |
| 13 | Toa Fa'avae | QB | SO | 6'0" | 188 | Concord, CA |
| 15 | Cade Mitchell | QB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Beaverton, OR |
| 8 | Deshaun Buchanan | RB | SR | 5'9" | 188 | Chandler, AZ |
| 20 | Darrion Bowers | RB | SO | 5'8" | 200 | Arlington, TX |
| 21 | Kiefer Sibley | RB | JR | 5'9" | 179 | Waco, TX |
| 22 | Scottre Humphrey | RB | SR | 5'10" | 215 | Seattle, WA |
| 23 | Cameron Mathews | RB | SO | 5'7" | 187 | Houston, TX |
| 24 | Jerod Terry Jr. | RB | FR | 5'7" | 182 | Los Alamitos, CA |
| 0 | Miles Williams | WR | SR | 6'0" | 192 | Happy Valley, OR |
| 1 | Shawn Miller | WR | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Chandler, AZ |
| 5 | Troy Omeire | WR | SR | 6'5" | 226 | Houston, TX |
| 6 | Zhaiel Smith | WR | SO | 5'11" | 188 | Portland, OR |
| 9 | Kader Diop | WR | SR | 5'10" | 178 | Minneapolis, MN |
| 11 | Massiah Mingo | WR | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 14 | DJ Darling | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Missouri City, TX |
| 16 | Jacob Maldonado | WR | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Rio Rancho, NM |
| 18 | Evan Wysong | WR | SR | 5'9" | 171 | Rio Rancho, NM |
| 25 | Dorian Patterson | WR | FR | 6'3" | 192 | Crete, IL |
| 26 | KJ Cherry | WR | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Fontana, CA |
| 81 | Bailen George | WR | FR | 6'0" | 160 | Missouri City, TX |
| 82 | JT Jeter | WR | SO | 6'0" | 178 | Cedar City, UT |
| 83 | Mikey Beck | WR | SO | 6'1" | 160 | Farmington, NM |
| 87 | Abraham Williams | WR | SR | 6'1" | 192 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 4 | Joey Olsen | TE | JR | 6'5" | 246 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 7 | Tripp Walsh | TE | SR | 6'5" | 245 | Hartland, WI |
| 17 | Bear Tenney | TE | SO | 6'6" | 255 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 80 | Max Leeper | TE | FR | 6'7" | 228 | Claremont, CA |
| 84 | Trey Moore | TE | FR | 6'5" | 210 | Ventura, CA |
| 85 | Simon Mapa | TE | SR | 6'3" | 255 | San Mateo, CA |
| 86 | Aldin Bilalbegovic | TE | SO | 6'4" | 225 | Red Deer, AB |
| 88 | Cade Keith | TE | JR | 6'5" | 245 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 89 | Enrique Zatarain | TE | FR | 6'4" | 217 | Santa Fe Springs, CA |
| 51 | Malik Aliane | OL | SR | 6'2" | 320 | Rouen |
| 54 | JoJo Matautia | OL | SO | 5'10" | 305 | Sammamish, WA |
| 55 | Elvin Harris | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Hollywood, FL |
| 56 | Sa'Kylee Woodard | OL | JR | 6'3" | 278 | Tucson, AZ |
| 57 | Jonny Shively | OL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 58 | Jaymar Tasi | OL | SO | 6'2" | 308 | Seattle, WA |
| 59 | Kaden Robnett | OL | SR | 6'2" | 302 | Graham, WA |
| 60 | Jubilee Siitia-Tasi | OL | SO | 6'2" | 302 | Spanaway, WA |
| 62 | Sebastian Dawkins | OL | FR | 6'1" | 290 | Spring, TX |
| 65 | Brody Litton | OL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Beloit, KS |
| 66 | Markus Fetcho | OL | SO | 6'5" | 308 | Spokane, WA |
| 68 | Tyler Lawrence | OL | SR | 6'5" | 306 | Puyallup, WA |
| 69 | Jerbralon Stewart | OL | FR | 6'2" | 260 | Desoto, TX |
| 71 | Danzel Newell | OL | FR | 6'5" | 265 | Chicago, IL |
| 72 | Matheu Alderman | OL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 75 | Ty'aun Gates | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Peoria, AZ |
| 76 | Braden Chick | OL | FR | 6'2" | 285 | Queen Creek, AZ |
| 77 | Tevin Shaw | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Houston, TX |
| 79 | Cole Millward | OL | SR | 6'5" | 297 | West Haven, UT |
| 10 | Darren Agu | DE | SR | 6'6" | 252 | London |
| 19 | Elijah Brody | DE | JR | 6'1" | 240 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 22 | Jalen Charles | DE | JR | 6'3" | 245 | Manvel, TX |
| 32 | Trent Rocker | DE | JR | 6'5" | 215 | Booneville, MS |
| 35 | Victor Villafuerte | DE | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Hollister, CA |
| 36 | Albert Tuakalau | DE | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Redwood City, CA |
| 45 | Brett Karhu | DE | SR | 6'0" | 226 | Frisco, TX |
| 47 | Marcus Stevens | DE | JR | 6'2" | 238 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 48 | John Sierra | DE | JR | 6'2" | 237 | Las Cruces, NM |
| 91 | Brayden Ellis | DE | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Union City, CA |
| 97 | Cody Thumlert | DE | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Issaquah, WA |
| 99 | Jack Burzynski | DE | SO | 6'4" | 225 | Barrington, IL |
| 15 | Xavier Slayton | DT | SR | 6'2" | 255 | Chicago, IL |
| 46 | Jake DeVos | DT | SO | 6'2" | 255 | Vale, OR |
| 88 | AJ Robinson | DT | SR | 6'2" | 275 | Chicago, IL |
| 90 | Devin Palmer | DT | FR | 6'1" | 255 | Allen, TX |
| 92 | Brian Booker | DT | SR | 6'3" | 330 | Mansfield, TX |
| 93 | Deven Dyer | DT | SR | 6'1" | 290 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 94 | Jalen McIver | DT | JR | 6'3" | 278 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 98 | Nick Barber | DT | FR | 6'3" | 280 | San Antonio, TX |
| 2 | Mercury Swaim | LB | SR | 5'11" | 216 | Bedford, PA |
| 6 | Jaxton Eck | LB | SR | 6'1" | 228 | Brookings, SD |
| 11 | C.J. Johnson | LB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Houston, TX |
| 18 | Clay Martineau | LB | JR | 6'3" | 228 | Oregon City, OR |
| 26 | Thomas Pettus | LB | SO | 6'1" | 212 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 33 | Hayes Baum | LB | FR | 5'11" | 222 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 34 | Broden Schmidt | LB | FR | 6'2" | 227 | Tucson, AZ |
| 41 | Eli Cronin | LB | FR | 6'0" | 216 | Chandler, AZ |
| 48 | Jayden Flaker | LB | SR | 6'2" | 222 | Scarborough, ME |
| 50 | Ricklan Holmes II | LB | FR | 5'11" | 227 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 1 | Jahmir Torres | CB | SO | 5'10" | 182 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 4 | Jayden Sheridan | CB | SR | 5'11" | 182 | West Hills, CA |
| 5 | Frankie Edwards III | CB | JR | 5'10" | 178 | Moreno Valley, CA |
| 8 | Ormanie Arnold | CB | SR | 5'8" | 178 | Long Beach, CA |
| 9 | Eric McClain | CB | JR | 5'11" | 183 | Lombard, IL |
| 14 | Melaki Gutierrez | CB | JR | 6'0" | 165 | Los Alamos, NM |
| 24 | Joshua Barnes | CB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 24 | Azariah Levells | CB | SR | 5'11" | 186 | Hemet, CA |
| 27 | Brannon Hampton | CB | FR | 6'1" | 166 | Tustin, CA |
| 0 | Austin Brawley | S | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Massillon, OH |
| 3 | CJ McBean | S | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Long Beach, CA |
| 7 | Tavian Combs | S | SR | 6'2" | 198 | Amarillo, TX |
| 12 | Drew Speech | S | SR | 6'2" | 204 | Hollister, CA |
| 13 | Chris Gant Jr. | S | JR | 5'9" | 192 | Spring, TX |
| 16 | Marco Beltran Jr. | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 17 | Will Hicks | S | JR | 6'0" | 198 | New Orleans, LA |
| 20 | Kevin Longstreet | S | SR | 5'8" | 185 | Inglewood, CA |
| 21 | Josh Mensah | S | FR | 6'0" | 187 | Fontana, CA |
| 23 | Nick Wheeler | S | SO | 6'0" | 208 | Dallas, TX |
| 28 | Deriece Brown | S | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Buckeye, AZ |
| 29 | Xavier Rivera-Rogers | S | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Chandler, AZ |
| 30 | Keshawn Monroe | S | SO | 5'8" | 175 | Houston, TX |
| 39 | Jaron Liles | S | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Mesa, AZ |
| 31 | Grant Glasgow | PK | SR | 6'1" | 192 | Lawrence, KS |
| 41 | Nick Romero | PK | SO | 5'8" | 172 | Pembroke Pines, FL |
| 95 | Konner Olson | PK | SR | 5'10" | 208 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 19 | Michael Kern | P | JR | 6'4" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 35 | Charles Steinkamp | P | SR | 6'5" | 208 | Los Alamos, NM |
| 50 | Lincoln Epstein | LS | JR | 5'9" | 215 | St. Charles, IL |
| 53 | Caden Beck | LS | SO | 5'9" | 195 | Allen, TX |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#25projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.77#23
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.47 / 1.60
- Power / stuff (off)
- 90.0% / 5.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 29.5%#5
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 20.0% / 9.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.00#90 | 0.53#26 | 0.87#29 |
| Defense | -0.36#11 | -0.16#26 | 0.24#47 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2247th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0569th
- Offense success rate49%61st
- Defense success rate allowed27%85th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs55%67th
- Offense success — passing downs31%42nd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs30%85th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs21%66th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.936th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.338th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9229th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs0.996th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.780th
- Defense line yards allowed2.845th
- Offense highlight yards0.7642nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.6752nd
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.6761st
- Offense stuff rate0.0790th
- Defense stuff rate0.031st
Third down
- Third down conversion54%72nd
- Third down distance faced5.877th
- Third down conversion allowed18%88th
- Third down distance forced7.353rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2979th
- Net success rate — second half0.2277th
Drives
- Points per drive4.187th
- Points per drive allowed0.7885th
- Average starting field position3382nd
- Opponent starting field position2664th
- Available yards gained65%78th
- Available yards allowed21%93rd
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed67%84th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.182nd
- Points allowed per opportunity1.287th
- Three-and-out rate11%81st
- Three-and-outs forced56%96th
Roster
- Returning usage57%67th
- Returning EPA17469th
- Team talent composite56819th
- Recruiting class rank87.037th
- Recruiting class points18337th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.378 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 42.3%
- Expected, given the spots
- 46.4%
- Over expected
- -4.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- +1
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. New Mexico is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to New Mexico in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 42% | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 29% | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 4.7 | -1.7 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 9.2-3.3. Wins the Mountain West in 30%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 97%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 4.2 points since preseason — won 38-7 over Central Michigan against an expected margin of +18, so +13.5 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 54% where the average Mountain West team is 51%.
- The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 9.0% of seasons, having won their league in 95% of those.
New Mexico’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Oklahoma27.2
- wk11vs UNLV14.5
- wk10at Nevada12.6
- wk13vs Air Force11.8
- wk7at Hawai'i11.7
- wk9at San José State10.4
Who to root for
Games New Mexico is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy2.4
- wk8Washington State over Boise State2.1
- wk10Sacramento State over Toledo2.0
- wk11Oregon State over Boise State1.8
- wk6Fresno State over Boise State1.6
- wk10Colorado State over Boise State1.6
Mountain West
0-0 in league play, projected 5.9-2.12 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11UNLV at New Mexico34.5
- wk13Air Force at New Mexico28.3
- wk10New Mexico at Nevada27.9
- wk7New Mexico at Hawai'i25.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
New Mexico is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- LA Bowl26%
- New Mexico Bowl19%
- Independence Bowl9.0%
- Arizona Bowl8.6%
- Frisco Bowl5.7%
- Cure Bowl4.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent New Mexico a player since 2010 — 16 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of New Mexico's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.