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Gridpex

CORE Ratings

Analysis

How good each team is per play, once you account for who they played and the situations they were in. Zero is an average team; higher is better. points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Built from 95,620 plays across 770 games.

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt
Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Offense against defense

Offense across, defense up. Best teams are top right. Both numbers are adjusted for who each team played, so a soft schedule does not flatter anyone.

-20+0+20-20+0+20CORE offense (points per 100 plays)← worsebetter →CORE defense (vs average)← worsebetter →
130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = -0.18(r² = 0.03)

Where efficiency and the poll disagree

The gap between a team’s CORE rank and its AP rank. This is the column worth arguing about — it is where one of the two measures is about to be shown up.

#TeamCOREOffenseDefense
11–2Alabama+49.7+29.2#2-20.5#3
22–4Clemson+40.2+16.7#4-23.5#1
32–4Georgia+38.3+24.2#3-14.0#10
44–9Oklahoma+27.6+34.4#1+6.8#100
54–9Utah State+26.8+11.1#12-15.7#5
64–11Michigan+24.6+9.5#16-15.2#8
74–12Mississippi State+23.6+3.1#46-20.5#2
84–18Missouri+22.3+11.1#11-11.2#17
96–18LSU+20.6+1.9#55-18.8#4
107–23Ohio State+19.0+14.8#6-4.3#45
118–25Fresno State+17.7+6.0#31-11.8#16
128–26Boise State+17.6+10.4#14-7.2#28
138–27Washington+17.3+7.3#26-10.1#21
148–29Florida+17.3+8.9#19-8.4#24
158–29Auburn+17.2+4.5#38-12.7#15
168–29Texas A&M+17.1+11.3#10-5.8#34
178–28Notre Dame+17.0+6.7#28-10.3#19
189–32Wisconsin+15.0+10.6#13-4.5#43
1910–32Penn State+14.2+5.3#33-8.8#22
2010–33UCF+14.1+13.3#7-0.8#61
2110–33Utah+14.0+0.5#65-13.5#11
2210–34Iowa+13.7+0.4#67-13.3#13
2310–35Cincinnati+13.4+0.3#70-13.1#14
2411–36App State+12.8-2.9#82-15.7#6
2512–39Virginia+12.0+3.5#44-8.5#23
2612–39West Virginia+11.8+12.1#8+0.2#68
2713–39UAB+11.7+4.6#37-7.0#30
2818–38Texas+11.5+6.5#29-5.1#38
2918–46Iowa State+10.4+4.8#36-5.7#36
3018–47Ole Miss+10.0+15.4#5+5.4#95
3118–49Kentucky+9.7+2.8#49-6.8#31
3219–52Washington State+8.7+10.1#15+1.4#72
3319–53Maryland+8.3+2.5#51-5.8#35
3423–54Miami+7.8-5.6#98-13.4#12
3525–58NC State+7.0+5.8#32-1.1#58
3626–59Memphis+6.5+7.9#21+1.4#75
3725–61Pittsburgh+6.4+3.4#45-3.0#50
3825–61South Carolina+6.3+6.2#30-0.1#65
3929–65North Texas+5.6+2.9#48-2.7#51
4029–65Stanford+5.5+7.6#23+2.1#80
4129–65Michigan State+5.4-10.2#115-15.6#7
4229–68USC+5.1+0.6#63-4.5#42
4329–67Oklahoma State+5.0+7.4#25+2.4#82
4429–69Syracuse+5.0-1.3#75-6.3#33
4530–71Temple+4.8+0.5#66-4.4#44
4630–73Arkansas State+4.6-0.3#71-4.9#39
4731–74Nebraska+4.2+7.4#24+3.2#87
4831–76Vanderbilt+4.0+9.0#18+5.0#93
4932–79BYU+3.4-1.2#74-4.6#40
5032–79Boston College+3.1-4.1#92-7.2#29
5132–80Florida State+3.1-4.7#94-7.9#26
5233–85Wyoming+2.5-5.1#95-7.6#27
5334–89Florida Atlantic+2.2+3.6#43+1.4#74
5435–89TCU+1.7-8.9#111-10.6#18
5535–92San Diego State+1.4-5.2#96-6.6#32
5636–91Purdue+1.3+4.0#41+2.7#84
5735–94Army+1.2+1.0#58-0.2#64
5836–93Buffalo+1.1+4.1#39+3.0#85
5939–93Arizona State+0.9+4.9#35+4.1#90
6037–93Oregon+0.9+1.2#57+0.4#71
6139–94Houston+0.3+8.2#20+7.8#106
6239–94California+0.3-14.1#121-14.4#9
6339–95Georgia Southern+0.1+0.4#68+0.3#69
6439–95Ohio+0.1+11.9#9+11.8#117
6539–95Southern Miss-0.3-10.6#116-10.3#20
6641–95Minnesota-0.3-1.1#73-0.8#60
6742–95UCLA-0.5+2.2#54+2.6#83
6842–95Arizona-0.5+0.9#60+1.4#73
6942–95Troy-0.6-3.0#84-2.4#52
7045–95Wake Forest-0.7-1.6#76-0.9#59
7146–95Texas Tech-0.8+0.8#61+1.6#76
7244–96Air Force-0.8+6.8#27+7.6#105
7347–96Duke-1.3-2.9#83-1.7#56
7449–96Marshall-1.6-6.7#101-5.1#37
7547–97Georgia Tech-1.6+9.4#17+11.1#115
7649–97Baylor-1.9+5.0#34+6.9#101
7749–97Middle Tennessee-2.0-4.0#91-2.0#54
7849–97UL Monroe-2.2+2.5#50+4.7#92
7949–97Arkansas-2.5-2.1#78+0.4#70
8052–97Louisiana Tech-2.7-6.4#100-3.7#48
8152–97Tulane-2.9-6.8#102-4.0#47
8250–97Tennessee-2.9-3.7#88-0.8#62
8353–97Toledo-3.3+3.9#42+7.2#103
8453–97Virginia Tech-3.4+3.0#47+6.4#99
8554–97Eastern Michigan-3.5-5.5#97-2.0#53
8654–97Nevada-3.5-8.1#108-4.5#41
8755–97Northwestern-3.6-7.7#107-4.1#46
8854–97Colorado-3.6-6.9#103-3.3#49
8955–97Indiana-4.1+1.3#56+5.4#94
9058–97Northern Illinois-4.1-12.3#118-8.2#25
9155–97Florida International-4.2+4.1#40+8.3#107
9255–98Kansas State-4.4-2.4#79+2.1#81
9358–99Kansas-4.8-2.8#81+1.9#79
9463–100Miami (OH)-5.5-1.7#77+3.7#88
9571–103North Carolina-6.5-0.6#72+5.9#98
9676–106Louisiana-7.4+7.8#22+15.2#123
9792–110Western Michigan-10.2+0.4#69+10.6#112
9891–111Charlotte-10.5-8.8#110+1.7#78
9995–110Hawai'i-11.2+2.3#53+13.4#120
10095–113SMU-11.5-9.9#114+1.6#77
10195–113Texas State-11.6-13.4#120-1.8#55
10295–113South Florida-11.8-6.0#99+5.9#97
10396–114Western Kentucky-12.4-8.6#109+3.8#89
10496–115East Carolina-12.6-12.3#119+0.2#67
10596–117Colorado State-12.9-3.1#85+9.8#110
10697–120Ball State-13.8-3.4#86+10.4#111
10797–120Tulsa-13.9-9.4#112+4.5#91
10897–123Akron-15.3-15.9#125-0.6#63
10997–123Illinois-15.5+2.4#52+17.9#127
11099–126Coastal Carolina-16.7+0.6#64+17.3#125
11199–126Navy-16.9-3.8#90+13.1#119
11299–127Liberty-17.0-9.6#113+7.4#104
113102–127Louisville-18.0-7.1#104+10.9#113
114103–127UNLV-18.3-3.8#89+14.5#122
115105–127San José State-18.6-15.4#124+3.2#86
116105–128South Alabama-18.8-7.5#106+11.3#116
117106–128Bowling Green-19.0-4.7#93+14.3#121
118106–128Georgia State-19.3+0.7#62+19.9#128
119106–128Massachusetts-19.3-3.5#87+15.8#124
120108–128Rutgers-19.9-21.5#128-1.6#57
121108–128Old Dominion-20.2-7.3#105+12.9#118
122108–128New Mexico State-20.7-15.1#123+5.6#96
123110–128Kent State-21.7-14.8#122+6.9#102
124110–128Central Michigan-21.9-21.9#129-0.1#66
125110–128New Mexico-22.7-11.6#117+11.1#114
126112–128Oregon State-22.9+1.0#59+23.9#129
127115–128UTEP-24.6-16.2#126+8.4#108
128128–130UTSA-31.5-21.9#130+9.5#109
129128–131Rice-34.1-16.7#127+17.4#126
130129–131UConn-38.8-2.8#80+36.0#130

Four ways to measure a team, and where each fails

This site publishes all four. That is not indecision — each answers a different question, and where they disagree is the information, not the noise.

Results · Elo, SRS

Measures: who beat whom, and by how much

Fails when: It cannot tell a good team from a lucky one. Elo moves on outcomes, and a season is twelve of them — a team that won three one-score games is rated as though it earned all three.

Efficiency · CORE, SP+

Measures: how good each play was, adjusted for situation and opponent

Fails when: It is indifferent to winning. A team can be the most efficient in the country and lose to the second-most because a punt was blocked, and the rating will not notice, because the rating is not about that.

The market · closing spreads

Measures: everything anyone knows, priced

Fails when: It is not published as a rating and it has no memory. It is the sharpest number available on any single game and it will not tell you who the fourth-best team in the country is.

Human polls · AP, coaches

Measures: reputation, weighted by results

Fails when: Inertia and brand. A preseason ranking survives contact with reality for weeks, and a team that starts unranked has to be much better than one that started at 12 to pass it.

How CORE is computed

  1. Remove the situation. For each play, predict its EPA from the game state alone — period, seconds left, score margin, down, distance, field position, home/away/neutral, pass or rush. No team identity is in those features, so what the model learns is what an average offense does from that spot. The residual is the part the situation does not explain.
  2. Remove the opponent. Offenses and defenses form one connected network across a season. Fit both sides at once — residual ~ offense(team) + defense(opponent) — by ridge regression over team dummies. Ridge rather than plain least squares because in September the schedule graph is barely connected, and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat up an overmatched opener.
  3. Report in points per 100 plays. Offense is points created above average; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is the difference.

Excluded: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS, special teams, non-scrimmage plays.

How sure is any of this? The small range under each rank is where a team would sit if its rating were one standard error better, or worse, than the estimate — about a two-in-three chance of covering the truth. It is wide on purpose: a season is a dozen games, and most of this table is one good afternoon away from a different order. Those bars are checked rather than claimed: fitting 2025’s odd and even weeks separately and standardising every team’s difference by its own two errors gives a spread of 0.93 on offense and 0.94 on defense, where 1.00 is exactly right-sized. It covers sampling error only — not the shrinkage the ridge applies on purpose, and not a team that changed in November.

What this is not. Not a prediction, not a forecast, not a projection of next week. It is a measurement of what happened per play, adjusted. The model that forecasts games is a different object and lives on the model record, where its actual edge is stated with the same bluntness.