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Missouri

Missouri Tigers

SEC·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1703#23
SP+
12.9#22
FPI
10.2
AP
#23
Nextvs Troy · Wk 3Win prob 96%Model -27.4
Talent #19 (808.4)Recruiting class #3442% production returning

Roster · 113 players

FR 23SO 22JR 24SR 44
#PlayerPosClHtWt
5Matt ZollersQBSO6'4"215
7Gavin SidwarQBFR6'3"195
10Nick EversQBSR6'3"195
13Austin SimmonsQBSR6'4"220
14Brett BrownQBSR6'1"185
20Jamal RobertsRBSR6'0"216
21Malae FonotiRBJR5'10"209
22Max WarnerRBFR5'9"197
24Xai'Shaun EdwardsRBJR5'9"198
26Brady HultmanRBSR5'11"201
28Preston HatfieldRBFR5'9"170
29Ahmad HardyRBJR5'10"210
31Anthony FavrowRBSR5'8"198
0Naeshaun MontgomeryWRSO6'1"190
1Donovan OlugbodeWRSO6'2"210
2Caleb Goodie Sr.WRSR6'1"183
3DaMarion FowlkesWRSO5'9"188
4Shaun Terry IIWRSO5'11"180
11Jabari BradyWRFR6'1"212
12Devyon Hill-LomaxWRFR6'3"193
17Kenric Lanier IIWRSR6'1"205
19Cayden LeeWRSR5'11"180
32Gavin WyattWRJR5'10"194
33DJ McBride IIWRFR6'3"190
80Jayden BoltonWRSR6'2"190
81Noah FlaskampWRSR6'1"200
82Karsten FieneWRFR6'2"195
18Isaac JensenTEFR6'6"240
84Adam MolitorTEJR6'6"230
86Jordon HarrisTESR6'4"268
87Brett NorfleetTESR6'6"255
88Gavin HoffmanTEJR6'5"245
89Jude JamesTEJR6'2"235
51Luke WorkOLJR6'6"310
52Zack OwensOLSR6'6"330
54Josh AtkinsOLSR6'3"315
55Will KemnaOLSO6'4"290
56Dominick GiudiceOLSR6'3"305
58Khalief Canty Jr.OLFR6'4"311
63Chace MissouriOLJR6'0"304
64Joe SchranzOLSO6'4"283
65Brysen WessellOLFR6'4"272
66Logan ReichertOLSR6'6"335
69Braylon EllisonOLFR6'4"300
70Cayden GreenOLSR6'5"324
71Ryan JostesOLJR6'6"317
72Colin SorensenOLJR6'3"292
73Tristan WilsonOLSR6'4"311
74Whit HaferOLJR6'6"310
75Jack LangeOLSO6'8"318
77Curtis PeaglerOLSR6'4"335
78DJ JonesOLFR6'6"315
10Daeden HopkinsEDGESO6'6"250
11Langden KitchenEDGESR6'6"265
12Malik BryantEDGESR6'2"240
13Jaden JonesEDGESR6'5"260
19Darris SmithEDGESR6'5"265
29Kamauryn MorganEDGESO6'4"250
52Demarcus JohnsonEDGEJR6'6"270
55Cavan TuleyEDGESR6'3"245
96Aidan DubbertEDGESR6'3"240
97CJ MayEDGESO6'3"245
3Marquis GracialDTSR6'4"315
8Donta SimpsonDTSO6'4"300
57Mark HensleyDTSR6'3"290
90Sterling WebbDTSR6'1"285
91Elias WilliamsDTJR6'3"286
92Jason DowellDTSO6'2"295
93Jocques FelixDTFR6'3"275
94Sam WilliamsDTSR6'3"301
95Jalen MarshallDTSR6'4"335
98Tajh OvertonDTFR6'3"284
99Jadon FrickDTJR6'0"270
0Robert Woodyard Jr.LBSR6'0"233
5Nicholas RodriguezLBJR6'0"225
6Jeremiah BeasleyLBJR6'0"235
9Dante McClellanLBSO6'1"227
16Bobby Washington Jr.LBSR6'3"222
17Brian HuffLBJR6'2"226
25Jason KingLBSO6'0"225
33JJ BushLBFR6'1"222
38Keenan HarrisLBFR6'0"224
46Jackson DailyLBJR6'1"235
53Tommy ReeseLBSR6'0"222
1Chris Graves Jr.CBSR6'0"187
2Sione LauleaCBSR6'4"200
20Cameron KeysCBJR5'11"181
21Jahlil FlorenceCBSR6'1"192
24Nick DeLoach Jr.CBSR6'0"190
26Jaxson GatesCBFR6'0"185
31Nasir PogueCBSR6'2"202
36Trashundon NealCBFR6'2"180
35Ahmod BillinsDBFR6'1"165
4Trajen GrecoSJR6'0"196
7Kensley Louidor-FaustinSJR5'11"190
14CJ Bass IIISSO6'2"205
15Santana BannerSSR6'3"215
18JaDon BlairSSO6'5"213
22Elijah DotsonSSO6'1"190
28Jayden McGregorySFR6'2"198
30Carter StewartSFR6'1"185
32Brody JonesSFR6'3"190
34Jackson HancockSJR6'0"200
39Maddux HermestroffSSO6'0"182
41Graham FaustSFR6'3"175
19Blake CraigPKSR5'11"200
40Brunno ReusPKSO6'0"206
48Oliver RobbinsPKJR5'10"181
34Mark ShenoudaPSR6'2"202
43John ButcherPSR6'1"213
36Sean GrossLSSO6'0"219
38Henry CrosbyLSSO6'2"190
49Brett Le BlancLSSR6'3"215

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
46.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
17.5
scoring defense
Differential
+28.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
515.5#21
Yards / play
6.9#34
Passing yards / game
324.5#17
Rushing yards / game
191.0#48
First downs / game
27.0#16
3rd down %
50.0%#33
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
32:40#36
Defense
Yards allowed / game
226.5#18
Yards / play allowed
3.8#17
Pass yards allowed / game
141.5#26
Rush yards allowed / game
85.0#35
3rd down % allowed
21.4%#12
Sacks
5#38
Tackles for loss
13#47
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#41
Takeaways
3#46
Giveaways
2#47
Penalties / game
7.5#90
Penalty yards / game
55.5#72

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Missouri is in year 7 under Eli Drinkwitz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th on early downs defensively. The way in is 111th at hitting chunk plays.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Missouri has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensefirst and second down
    #5
    projected
  • Defensethrowing it
    #9
    projected
  • Defensesacks and tackles for loss
    #9
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #111
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
7.7 – 4.3
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
5.7
of 10 games
Bowl odds
95%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
96%
vs Troy
Toughest
21%
vs Ole Miss

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (29%)Bowl eligible 95% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBAustin Simmons, Matt Zollers
+38.4 EPA
WRCayden Lee, Caleb Goodie +3
+36.3 EPA
RBJamal Roberts, Malae Fonoti +1
+6.4 EPA
TEBrett Norfleet
+5.3 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBAustin Simmons
~$1.0M
EPA +38.20.750/play51 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3274th#36
Def0.0271st#41
Explosiveness
Off1.3774th#37
Def1.871st#137
Field position
Off61.04th#133
Def74.826th#102
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.5066th#47
Def3.1157th#60
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 2
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.8295th#8
Off · rush
0.0527th#101

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0524th#105
Def0.0252nd#67
Passing
Off0.8295th#8
Def0.0185th#22

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.98#79
2nd-level / open-field
0.86 / 0.94
Power / stuff (off)
75.0% / 19.0%
Havoc — total (def)
23.1%#21
Havoc — front 7 / DB
15.7% / 7.4%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.24
Def-0.15
Pass downs
Off0.49
Def0.20

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.18#430.23#651.02#14
Defense-0.32#140.07#580.26#53

Elo Trajectory

Arkansas-Pine BluffFinal
Elo rating 1666 → 1691+25 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2864th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0852nd
  • Offense success rate47%59th
  • Defense success rate allowed29%87th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs50%52nd
  • Offense success — passing downs40%77th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs32%88th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs24%64th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.470th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.74th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.046th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.275th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.158th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.471st
  • Offense highlight yards0.8436th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.228th
  • Offense power success0.7960th
  • Defense power success allowed0.8818th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1845th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2255th

Third down

  • Third down conversion50%77th
  • Third down distance faced7.427th
  • Third down conversion allowed19%96th
  • Third down distance forced8.791st

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.3093rd
  • Net success rate — second half0.0442nd

Drives

  • Points per drive3.582nd
  • Points per drive allowed1.282nd
  • Average starting field position3590th
  • Opponent starting field position2857th
  • Available yards gained62%79th
  • Available yards allowed28%92nd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive85%61st
  • Scoring opportunities allowed67%87th
  • Points per scoring opportunity4.184th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.882nd
  • Three-and-out rate23%50th
  • Three-and-outs forced33%74th

CORE

  • CORE offense6.485th
  • CORE defense-6.088th
  • CORE overall12.489th

Roster

  • Returning usage50%59th
  • Returning EPA13358th
  • Team talent composite80887th
  • Recruiting class rank34.076th
  • Recruiting class points22576th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.319#36 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.818#8
Rush EPA/play
+0.047#105
Explosiveness
1.371#37
Pts/opportunity
4.50#47
Success rate
46.3%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.771 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
+0.021#41 · above avg
Havoc rate (total)
23.1%#21
Front-7 havoc
15.7%
DB havoc
7.4%
Big play rate allowed
1.869#137
Success rate allowed
24.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

46.0 PPG offense, 17.5 allowed — +28.5 margin/game
Points per game
46.0
Points allowed/game
17.5
Scoring margin/game
+28.5
Turnover margin
+1won 3 · lost 2
Production returning
42%
Talent rank (247)
#19

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE74thEXPLOSIVENESS74thFINISHING66thFIELD POS4thDEFENSE71thHAVOC85th50th100th
Offense
74th
Explosiveness
74th
Finishing
66th
Field Pos
4th
Defense
71th
Havoc
85th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+21.6
#13
Offense
+8.3
#24
Defense
-13.4
#8
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 13 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive3.461.17
Starting field positionown 35.2own 27.5
Available yards62.3%27.8%
Scoring opportunities84.6%66.7%
Points per opportunity4.091.75
Three-and-out rate23.1%33.3%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
43.3%
Expected, given the spots
47.4%
Over expected
-4.2
Fourth down vs peers
+7
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Missouri is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Missouri in 2026

by EPA/play distance
ColoradoSP+ +2.1
Off EPA/play +0.302Def EPA/play +0.019Elo 1406
Match
99%
UTSASP+ +2.9
Off EPA/play +0.302Def EPA/play +0.044Elo 1522
Match
98%
Air ForceSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play +0.315Def EPA/play -0.011Elo 1424
Match
98%
Ohio StateSP+ +30.0
Off EPA/play +0.355Def EPA/play +0.043Elo 1986
Match
97%
KansasSP+ +7.5
Off EPA/play +0.311Def EPA/play +0.066Elo 1473
Match
97%
Arizona StateSP+ +8.7
Off EPA/play +0.278Def EPA/play +0.057Elo 1572
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -5.7, #85 of 1282016: -3.3, #79 of 1282017: +13.8, #22 of 1302018: +22.3, #8 of 1302019: +6.7, #37 of 1302020: -3.4, #76 of 1242021: -5.2, #88 of 1302022: +3.7, #56 of 1312023: +20.7, #12 of 1332024: +6.4, #44 of 1342025: +20.9, #12 of 1362026: +21.6, #13 of 138
20152026
Now +21.6 · #13 of 138Best +22.3 in 2018Worst -5.7 in 2015

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
1.9+0.1
20258-54-4
62%
9.2-1.2
202410-35-3
77%
7.5+2.5
202311-26-2
85%
10.4+0.6
20226-73-5
46%
6.5-0.5
20216-73-5
46%
4.1+1.9
20205-55-5
50%
3.9+1.1
20196-63-5
50%
7.1-1.1
20188-54-4
62%
9.7-1.7
20177-64-4
54%
7.5-0.5

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

21%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.6-4.5. Top-four bye in 5.4%. Wins the SEC in 2.6%.

If they finish with…

100%
0 losses
100%
1 loss
99%
2 losses
35%
3 losses
0.1%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

up 4.6 points since preseason.

  • At 3 losses they are 35% where the average SEC team is 41%.
  • The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.

Missouri’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11at Georgia35.4
  • wk10vs Texas32.7
  • wk6vs Texas A&M30.6
  • wk5vs Florida27.1
  • wk13vs Oklahoma26.2
  • wk7at Ole Miss25.5

Who to root for

Games Missouri is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk5Arkansas over Texas A&M2.2
  • wk5Vanderbilt over Georgia2.0
  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech1.8
  • wk3Kentucky over Texas A&M1.7
  • wk11Kentucky over Florida1.6
  • wk11Minnesota over Penn State1.6
The full playoff picture →

SEC

0-0 in league play, projected 4.6-4.48 of 16 by title odds
2.6%
Wins the SEC
6.5%
Reaches the title game

The SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk11Missouri at Georgia8.0
  • wk10Texas at Missouri6.3
  • wk6Texas A&M at Missouri5.2
  • wk5Florida at Missouri4.5

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →

If not the playoff, then

86%
Bowl eligible
66%
Placed in a bowl
21%
In the playoff
13%
Season over in November

Missouri is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 0.8% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.

  • Music City Bowl8.7%
  • Gator Bowl8.6%
  • ReliaQuest Bowl8.4%
  • Duke's Mayo Bowl8.3%
  • Texas Bowl8.0%
  • Citrus Bowl7.8%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Missouri a player since 2010 — 9 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Missouri's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
West OrangeFL21
Ben DavisIN20
WashingtonOH20
Frisco Lone StarTX11
MillbrookNC11
VanguardFL11
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.