vs Kennesaw State · Wk 3Win prob 91%Model -20.4Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Faizon BrandonPassing374 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
DeSean BishopRushing244 yds · 3 TD · 7.2 avg
Mike MatthewsReceiving6 rec · 148 yds · 2 TD
Amare CampbellTackles14 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Tennessee
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Faizon Brandon produced 7 of Tennessee's 13 explosive plays
Tennessee outduels Arkansas in a 65-point shootout, 34-31
We liked Tennessee by a touchdown-plus. They won by 71.
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ryan Staub | QB | JR | 6'1" | 204 | Stevenson Ranch, CA |
| 11 | Faizon Brandon | QB | FR | 6'4" | 225 | Greensboro, NC |
| 12 | George MacIntyre | QB | FR | 6'6" | 208 | Franklin, TN |
| 13 | Mason Phillips | QB | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Kodak, TN |
| 2 | Justin Baker | RB | SO | 5'10" | 210 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 6 | Javin Gordon | RB | SO | 5'10" | 212 | Toccoa, GA |
| 17 | Daune Morris | RB | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 18 | DeSean Bishop | RB | JR | 5'10" | 215 | Knoxville, TN |
| 24 | Hunter Barnes | RB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Memphis, TN |
| 34 | Will Rajecki | RB | FR | 5'11" | 208 | Canton, GA |
| 1 | Travis Smith Jr. | WR | SO | 6'3" | 215 | Atlanta, GA |
| 3 | Radarious Jackson | WR | SO | 6'2" | 208 | Memphis, TN |
| 4 | Mike Matthews | WR | JR | 6'1" | 198 | Lilburn, GA |
| 5 | TK Keys | WR | FR | 6'2" | 198 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 9 | Joakim Dodson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Memphis, TN |
| 14 | Braylon Staley | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Aiken, SC |
| 19 | Tyreek King | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Knoxville, TN |
| 26 | Doren Sacha | WR | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Denver, CO |
| 29 | Jack-Henry Jakobik | WR | JR | 6'4" | 198 | Brentwood, TN |
| 30 | Jacolby Cooper | WR | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Alcoa, TN |
| 31 | Lane Cope | WR | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Maryville, TN |
| 35 | Ben Petermann | WR | FR | 6'3" | 208 | Chicago, IL |
| 36 | Nathan Roberts | WR | JR | 6'4" | 209 | Morristown, TN |
| 38 | Brayden Carroll | WR | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Cleveland, TN |
| 81 | Ian Duarte | WR | JR | 5'10" | 181 | Santa Clarita, CA |
| 85 | Luke Thompson | WR | FR | 6'1" | 193 | Franklin, TN |
| 88 | Deon Hardin | WR | SR | 6'0" | 189 | Biloxi, MS |
| 0 | Ethan Davis | TE | JR | 6'5" | 247 | Atlanta, GA |
| 7 | DaSaahn Brame | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Derby, KS |
| 44 | Drake Martinez | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Houston, TX |
| 80 | Cole Harrison | TE | SO | 6'5" | 239 | San Mateo, CA |
| 82 | Trent Thomas | TE | JR | 6'5" | 252 | Mobile, AL |
| 87 | Luca Wolf | TE | FR | 6'5" | 255 | Vienna |
| 51 | Jeremias Heard | OL | SO | 6'8" | 335 | Rome, GA |
| 55 | Antoni Ogumoro | OL | SO | 6'4" | 320 | Saipan |
| 56 | Sam Pendleton | OL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Lawsonville, NC |
| 58 | Nic Moore | OL | FR | 6'3" | 313 | Talbott, TN |
| 59 | Charlie Powell III | OL | FR | 6'3" | 314 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 60 | Thomas Storm | OL | FR | 6'4" | 281 | Brighton, MI |
| 63 | Jeremy George-El | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Knoxville, TN |
| 65 | Michael Kostantonov | OL | SO | 6'4" | 322 | Northbrook, IL |
| 66 | Kamari Blair | OL | FR | 6'6" | 290 | Clarksville, TN |
| 69 | Donovan Haslam | OL | SR | 6'3" | 350 | Perry, GA |
| 70 | David Sanders Jr. | OL | SO | 6'6" | 310 | Charlotte, NC |
| 71 | Ed Baker | OL | FR | 6'4" | 322 | Baltimore, MD |
| 72 | Jesse Perry | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 74 | Shamurad Umarov | OL | JR | 6'7" | 321 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 75 | Wendell Moe Jr. | OL | SR | 6'2" | 330 | Long Beach, CA |
| 77 | Ory Williams | OL | SO | 6'8" | 330 | San Marcos, TX |
| 78 | Gage Ginther | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Fort Collins, CO |
| 79 | Gabriel Osenda | OL | FR | 6'8" | 330 | Airdrie, AB |
| 2 | Xavier Gilliam | DL | SO | 6'2" | 305 | Montgomery Village, MD |
| 5 | Daevin Hobbs | DL | SR | 6'4" | 290 | Concord, NC |
| 9 | Mariyon Dye | DL | SO | 6'5" | 270 | Elkhart, IN |
| 17 | Ethan Utley | DL | SO | 6'4" | 287 | Nashville, TN |
| 18 | Tyree Weathersby | DL | JR | 6'5" | 268 | Douglasville, GA |
| 19 | Nathan Robinson | DL | JR | 6'7" | 295 | Greenbrier, TN |
| 26 | JJ Finch | DL | FR | 6'3" | 293 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 33 | Jordan Norman | DL | JR | 6'4" | 265 | Hoover, AL |
| 35 | Carson Gentle | DL | SO | 6'3" | 265 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 36 | Carter Gooden | DL | FR | 6'4" | 267 | Marion, MA |
| 37 | Kedric Golston II | DL | FR | 6'3" | 243 | Leesburg, VA |
| 39 | Darryl Rivers | DL | FR | 6'5" | 287 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 44 | Christian Gass | DL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Covington, GA |
| 47 | Isaiah Campbell | DL | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Durham, NC |
| 55 | Mike Bethea II | DL | SR | 6'1" | 221 | Maryville, TN |
| 56 | Zach Groves | DL | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Cross Plains, TN |
| 59 | Dereon Albert | DL | FR | 6'1" | 309 | Jackson, MS |
| 85 | CJ Edwards | DL | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Edison, NJ |
| 87 | Nuk Simmons | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Columbus, GA |
| 95 | Breeze Carter | DL | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Douglasville, GA |
| 97 | Hezekiah Harris | DL | FR | 6'6" | 248 | Huntsville, AL |
| 99 | Charles House III | DL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Charlotte, NC |
| 0 | Amare Campbell | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Manassas, VA |
| 7 | Arion Carter | LB | SR | 6'1" | 238 | Smyrna, TN |
| 11 | Jordan Burns | LB | SO | 6'1" | 227 | Conyers, GA |
| 12 | Jaedon Harmon | LB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Rome, GA |
| 13 | Edwin Spillman | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Nashville, TN |
| 22 | Jeremiah Telander | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Gainesville, GA |
| 27 | Jadon Perlotte | LB | SO | 6'4" | 214 | Buford, GA |
| 28 | Brayden Rouse | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Woodstock, GA |
| 50 | Ryan Scott | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Knoxville, TN |
| 51 | TJ White | LB | FR | 6'2" | 237 | Jackson, MS |
| 57 | Grier Short | LB | SO | 6'1" | 222 | Franklin, TN |
| 1 | TJ Metcalf | DB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Birmingham, AL |
| 3 | Tre Poteat III | DB | SO | 6'0" | 192 | Fitchburg, WI |
| 4 | Ty Redmond | DB | SO | 6'3" | 200 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 6 | Qua Moss | DB | SR | 5'10" | 188 | West Point, GA |
| 8 | Jadais Richard | DB | SR | 6'1" | 202 | West Monroe, LA |
| 10 | Dejuan Lane | DB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Jessup, MD |
| 14 | Kayin Lee | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 15 | Edrees Farooq | DB | JR | 6'0" | 202 | Columbia, MD |
| 20 | Tevis Metcalf | DB | SO | 5'10" | 202 | Birmingham, AL |
| 21 | Jamyan Theodore | DB | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Cleveland, OH |
| 23 | Sidney Walton | DB | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Moody, AL |
| 24 | Dylan Lewis | DB | SO | 6'0" | 197 | Atlanta, GA |
| 25 | Tim Merritt | DB | SO | 6'1" | 194 | Birmingham, AL |
| 29 | Isaiah Hardge | DB | JR | 5'10" | 182 | Hollywood, FL |
| 30 | Javonte Smith | DB | FR | 6'0" | 183 | Jackson, TN |
| 31 | Joel Wyatt | DB | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Shelbyville, TN |
| 34 | Zay Anderson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Greeneville, TN |
| 38 | Jowell Combay | DB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 40 | KJ McClain | DB | FR | 6'0" | 188 | Rahway, NJ |
| 42 | DJ Burks | DB | SR | 6'0" | 196 | Maryville, TN |
| 43 | Jackson Mathews | DB | SO | 6'0" | 196 | Franklin, TN |
| 28 | Cooper Ranvier | PK | SO | 6'2" | 199 | Lexington, KY |
| 93 | Grady Dangerfield | PK | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Charleston, SC |
| 94 | Josh Turbyville | PK | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Knoxville, TN |
| 98 | Jackson Ross | P | SR | 6'4" | 203 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 99 | Logan Foley | P | FR | 6'6" | 234 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 48 | Bennett Brady | LS | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Memphis, TN |
| 53 | Blake Howard | LS | JR | 6'2" | 222 | Cincinnati, OH |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Tennessee is in year 6 under Josh Heupel, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at moving the ball on the ground. The way in is 107th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tennessee has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#5projected
- Offensefirst and second down#7projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#107projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.72#21
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.50 / 1.84
- Power / stuff (off)
- 77.8% / 12.2%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 24.2%#14
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 15.2% / 9.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.18#43 | 0.46#25 | 0.90#19 |
| Defense | 0.02#91 | -0.48#3 | 0.70#115 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4087th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0680th
- Offense success rate51%76th
- Defense success rate allowed35%61st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs55%78th
- Offense success — passing downs37%68th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs41%58th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs25%61st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.366th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.175th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.288th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.728th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.787th
- Defense line yards allowed3.53rd
- Offense highlight yards2.386th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.516th
- Offense power success0.8267th
- Defense power success allowed0.5078th
- Offense stuff rate0.1280th
- Defense stuff rate0.1731st
Third down
- Third down conversion54%84th
- Third down distance faced6.853rd
- Third down conversion allowed41%38th
- Third down distance forced8.383rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1466th
- Net success rate — second half0.1473rd
Drives
- Points per drive4.596th
- Points per drive allowed1.085th
- Average starting field position3588th
- Opponent starting field position2484th
- Available yards gained70%92nd
- Available yards allowed48%55th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.590th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.463rd
- Three-and-out rate0%99th
- Three-and-outs forced30%65th
CORE
- CORE offense7.993rd
- CORE defense-5.177th
- CORE overall13.091st
Roster
- Returning usage37%43rd
- Returning EPA18673rd
- Team talent composite88691st
- Recruiting class rank8.095th
- Recruiting class points29195th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.075 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 33.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 43.3%
- Over expected
- -9.5
- Fourth down vs peers
- +1
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Tennessee is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Tennessee in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 9.2 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 9.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 2020 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 30% | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 0-8 | 33% | 3.4 | +0.6 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 8.4-3.8. Top-four bye in 9.0%. Wins the SEC in 5.9%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 6.5 points since preseason.
- At 3 losses they are 21% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.
Tennessee’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs Texas38.3
- wk11at Texas A&M37.6
- wk12vs LSU35.6
- wk7vs Alabama34.1
- wk8at South Carolina32.7
- wk13at Vanderbilt27.7
Who to root for
Games Tennessee is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia2.5
- wk9Mississippi State over Texas2.2
- wk13Arkansas over LSU2.1
- wk7Mississippi State over LSU2.1
- wk3Florida State over Alabama2.0
- wk10Washington over Penn State1.9
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 5.3-3.77 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4Texas at Tennessee11.6
- wk11Tennessee at Texas A&M10.6
- wk12LSU at Tennessee10.2
- wk7Alabama at Tennessee8.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Tennessee is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- ReliaQuest Bowl9.6%
- Citrus Bowl9.5%
- Gator Bowl9.3%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl8.7%
- Music City Bowl7.7%
- Texas Bowl6.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Tennessee a player since 2010 — 27 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Tennessee's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.