Pirates at Cubs
PIT––
CHC–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
- Evan Sisk11d rest
- Isaac Mattson7d rest
- Wilber Dotel4d rest
- Yohan Ramírez3d rest · 4p/3d
- Carmen Mlodzinski3d rest · 10p/3d
- Gregory Soto3d rest · 17p/3d
- Camilo Doval3d rest · 26p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Tyler Ferguson11d rest
- Ryan Zeferjahn5d rest
- Aaron Civale4d rest
- Jacob Webb4d rest
- Ryan Rolison4d rest
- Caleb Thielbar3d rest · 8p/3d
- Colin Rea3d rest · 15p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.