@ Rice · Wk 3Win prob 75%Model -10.4Schedule & Results
MICHMichiganL12-13✓Wk 2vsMONMMonmouthW49-14✓Wk 3@RICERice-10.475%Wk 4vs
BOISBoise State+2.643%Wk 5@
BUFBuffalo-13.882%Wk 6vs
KENTKent State-19.590%Wk 7@
CMUCentral Michigan-9.672%Wk 8@
TOLToledo-3.057%Wk 9vs
BGSUBowling Green-24.895%Wk 11@
AKRAkron-5.062%Wk 12vs
EMUEastern Michigan-12.377%Wk 13vs
M-OHMiami (OH)-11.777%Team Leaders
Broc LowryPassing301 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Jalen BuckleyRushing90 yds · 3 TD · 3.1 avg
Aveion ChenaultReceiving10 rec · 154 yds · 0 TD
Justyce BettsTackles15 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Western Michigan
All news →Michigan grinds past Western Michigan in a rock fight, 13-12
Western Michigan's secondary is back; its pass rush isn't
Roster · 104 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trey Petty | QB | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Starkville, MS |
| 12 | Broc Lowry | QB | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Canfield, OH |
| 13 | Mason Reynolds | QB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Avon, IN |
| 16 | Jaxson Dosh | QB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Davison, MI |
| 0 | AJ Green Jr. | RB | SR | 5'10" | 216 | Tulsa, OK |
| 4 | Cole Cabana | RB | JR | 5'11" | 197 | Dexter, MI |
| 6 | Jalen Buckley | RB | SR | 5'11" | 225 | Aurora, IL |
| 21 | Chase Dawkins | RB | FR | 5'9" | 200 | Farmington Hills, MI |
| 22 | Donovan Triplett | RB | FR | 5'7" | 190 | Walled Lake, MI |
| 24 | Ofa Mataele | RB | SR | 6'0" | 219 | East Palo Alto, CA |
| 27 | JR Hays | RB | SO | 5'9" | 187 | Florence, KY |
| 1 | Emazon Littlejohn | WR | SO | 6'0" | 188 | Gaffney, SC |
| 2 | Aveion Chenault | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Lexington, KY |
| 3 | Keivin Boone-Nelson II | WR | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Sacramento, CA |
| 5 | Kordell Gouldsby | WR | JR | 5'9" | 170 | Tulsa, OK |
| 7 | Baylin Brooks | WR | JR | 6'1" | 207 | Pasadena, CA |
| 8 | Egypt Nelson | WR | JR | 6'4" | 200 | Norfolk, VA |
| 11 | Terence Marshall | WR | SO | 6'2" | 192 | Navarre, FL |
| 17 | Elijah Lucas | WR | FR | 6'2" | 200 | St. Louis, MO |
| 19 | Angelo Chapman | WR | FR | 5'11" | 160 | Grand Blanc, MI |
| 80 | Harper Hughes | WR | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Hartland, WI |
| 15 | Adam Parks | TE | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Overland Park, KS |
| 35 | Enese Tonga | TE | SO | 6'4" | 250 | Kahuku, HI |
| 40 | Nathan Sines | TE | JR | 6'6" | 228 | Addison, MI |
| 81 | Michael Dersa | TE | FR | 6'5" | 215 | Detroit, MI |
| 83 | Ryan Brotherton | TE | SO | 6'4" | 228 | Lawrenceburg, IN |
| 86 | Ryan Rocheleau | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Lake Orion, MI |
| 87 | Brady Rhoad | TE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 88 | Nate Levicki | TE | SR | 6'2" | 245 | Annapolis, MD |
| 89 | Brennan Wooten | TE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 55 | Jacob Bailey | OL | FR | 6'4" | 309 | Schoolcraft, MI |
| 57 | Jake Chellman | OL | SO | 6'5" | 297 | Stevensville, MI |
| 58 | Liam Vaughan | OL | FR | 6'1" | 295 | Walled Lake, MI |
| 60 | Brandon Smith | OL | SR | 6'4" | 315 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 61 | Jacob Krause | OL | SO | 6'6" | 285 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 64 | Nolan Miller | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Rockford, MI |
| 65 | Jeremy Schleicher | OL | SO | 6'3" | 305 | Overland Park, KS |
| 66 | Munachimdainanma Newman-Nwodika | OL | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 67 | Ryan Westrich | OL | FR | 6'6" | 260 | Bonduel, WI |
| 68 | Gavin Beachner | OL | FR | 6'6" | 324 | Carl Junction, MO |
| 70 | KJ Kotalik | OL | FR | 6'8" | 328 | Lykens, OH |
| 72 | Gavin Dabo | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Grove City, OH |
| 73 | Ben Roebuck | OL | SO | 6'7" | 330 | Cleveland, OH |
| 75 | Spencer Beckeman | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Rochester, MI |
| 76 | Chad Schuster | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Franklin, WI |
| 77 | Hunter Whitenack | OL | SR | 6'6" | 340 | New Carlisle, IN |
| 78 | Jacob Wilk | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Lake Zurich, IL |
| 54 | Alex Poholik | C | SO | 6'2" | 300 | Chicago, IL |
| 2 | Scoop Gardner Jr. | DE | JR | 6'1" | 255 | Long Island, NY |
| 4 | Austin Alexander | DE | SO | 6'3" | 255 | Burlington, KY |
| 9 | Will Gerig | DE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Fishers, IN |
| 15 | KJ Burley | DE | SO | 6'3" | 245 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 31 | DeJuan Echoles Jr. | DE | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 40 | Cody Haworth | DE | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Portage, MI |
| 43 | Chris Stewart | DE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Andrews, SC |
| 46 | Max Baker | DE | FR | 6'4" | 279 | Detroit, MI |
| 88 | August Johanningsmeier | DE | SR | 6'4" | 280 | Howell, MI |
| 97 | Noah Bishop | DE | SO | 6'4" | 245 | Inkster, MI |
| 7 | Gian Carter | DL | FR | 6'3" | 231 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 91 | Angelo Pugliano | DL | FR | 6'1" | 285 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 93 | Jayden Aswell | DL | JR | 6'5" | 274 | Deridder, LA |
| 95 | DeShawn Robinson | DL | JR | 6'2" | 303 | Auburn Hills, MI |
| 96 | Dalton Gustwiller | DL | JR | 6'3" | 305 | Dayton, OH |
| 98 | Dakari Frazier | DL | JR | 6'3" | 280 | Columbus, OH |
| 41 | Zavian Tibbs | DT | SR | 6'1" | 290 | Killeen, TX |
| 55 | Blair Alexander | DT | SR | 6'2" | 270 | Cary, NC |
| 90 | Jori Benson | DT | SR | 6'3" | 290 | New York, NY |
| 94 | Ahmed Tounkara | DT | SO | 6'0" | 292 | Dublin, OH |
| 0 | Brenden Anes | LB | SO | 6'2" | 233 | Nolensville, TN |
| 5 | Justyce Betts | LB | SO | 5'11" | 220 | Kansas City, KS |
| 10 | Teegan Haines | LB | JR | 6'3" | 210 | Mcpherson, KS |
| 11 | Jermar McCarter | LB | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Starkville, MS |
| 12 | Dillon Moore | LB | SR | 6'2" | 223 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 36 | Freddy Brown | LB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Merrillville, IN |
| 38 | Breck Mallory | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 42 | Gabe Welch | LB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | Arkansas City, KS |
| 45 | Andrew Baker | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Spring Lake, MI |
| 47 | Domanick Moon | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 8 | Jarvarius Sims | CB | SR | 6'0" | 188 | Decatur, GA |
| 13 | Jordon Thomas | CB | SR | 6'0" | 181 | Atlanta, GA |
| 16 | Brodon Moore | CB | FR | 5'9" | 165 | Lakewood, OH |
| 17 | Cam'ron Barber | CB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Atlanta, GA |
| 20 | Willard Ferrell | CB | SR | 6'1" | 155 | Homestead, FL |
| 22 | Amarian Louis | CB | JR | 5'8" | 166 | Miami, FL |
| 37 | Carlos Mitchell Jr. | CB | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Lake Wales, FL |
| 48 | Tre Johnson | CB | FR | 6'3" | 160 | Columbus, OH |
| 1 | Joshua Franklin | DB | SR | 6'0" | 175 | University Park, IL |
| 6 | Joey Pope | S | JR | 5'11" | 165 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 14 | Daeh McCullough | S | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 18 | Micah Davis | S | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Dexter, MI |
| 19 | Braden Steely | S | SO | 5'11" | 192 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 21 | CJ Miles Jr. | S | SO | 6'1" | 201 | Lansing, IL |
| 23 | Tahj Owens | S | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Chino Hills, CA |
| 24 | Camari Patterson | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Detroit, MI |
| 26 | Kouri Crump | S | SR | 6'3" | 205 | Charlotte, NC |
| 29 | Trevon Collard | S | FR | 6'0" | 170 | St. Louis, MO |
| 30 | Keegan McCue | S | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Kalamazoo, MI |
| 20 | Palmer Domschke | PK | SR | 5'10" | 186 | Bolingbrook, IL |
| 32 | Dieter Kelly | PK | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Irvine, CA |
| 33 | Zak Zeman | PK | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Chicago, IL |
| 25 | Ryan Millmore | P | JR | 6'3" | 200 | Normal, IL |
| 34 | Tanner Holt | P | FR | 6'0" | 175 | North Logan, UT |
| 28 | Will Peterson | LS | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Geneva, IL |
| 46 | Drew Doyle | LS | SO | 6'1" | 242 | Collinsville, IL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Western Michigan runs it: Lance Taylor's offenses have been run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 21st at shutting down the ground game. The way in is 138th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −11.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Western Michigan has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#21projected
- Defensefirst and second down#21projected
- Offensefirst and second down#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#138projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.66#106
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.57 / 0.05
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 18.2%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 16.7%#64
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 6.3% / 10.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.20#124 | -0.32#132 | 0.67#60 |
| Defense | 0.10#104 | -0.17#24 | 0.91#125 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play-0.0411th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2425th
- Offense success rate33%12th
- Defense success rate allowed44%27th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs38%15th
- Offense success — passing downs24%23rd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs50%24th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs29%47th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.123rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.171st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.705th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.163rd
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.724th
- Defense line yards allowed3.410th
- Offense highlight yards0.0511th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.3370th
- Offense power success0.6738th
- Defense power success allowed0.7548th
- Offense stuff rate0.1840th
- Defense stuff rate0.084th
Third down
- Third down conversion47%57th
- Third down distance faced7.233rd
- Third down conversion allowed30%67th
- Third down distance forced6.528th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1613th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0331st
Drives
- Points per drive0.9020th
- Points per drive allowed0.7885th
- Average starting field position3588th
- Opponent starting field position1699th
- Available yards gained37%25th
- Available yards allowed26%89th
- Scoring opportunities per drive90%70th
- Scoring opportunities allowed67%84th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.012th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.287th
- Three-and-out rate20%66th
- Three-and-outs forced56%96th
Roster
- Returning usage100%99th
- Returning EPA15664th
- Team talent composite57222nd
- Recruiting class rank11219th
- Recruiting class points17119th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.128 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 34.4%
- Expected, given the spots
- 49.6%
- Over expected
- -15.2
- Fourth down vs peers
- -11
- Fourth down vs the model
- -40
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Western Michigan is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Western Michigan in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 10-4 | 7-1 | 71% | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 5-3 | 46% | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 4.3 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| 2020 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 67% | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 6.6 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 50% | 6.3 | -0.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 8.8-3.8. Wins the Mid-American in 40%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 36%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 1.3 points since preseason — lost 12-13 to Michigan against an expected margin of −25, so +24.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 36% where the average Mid-American team is 27%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.05 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 2.8% of seasons, having won their league in 99% of those.
Western Michigan’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs Boise State8.3
- wk8at Toledo4.4
- wk5at Buffalo3.9
- wk3at Rice3.7
- wk13vs Miami (OH)3.6
- wk7at Central Michigan3.5
Who to root for
Games Western Michigan is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico1.1
- wk5Charlotte over Memphis0.9
- wk12Virginia Tech over Miami0.8
- wk7South Florida over Kent State0.8
- wk10Southern Miss over James Madison0.7
- wk13Temple over Memphis0.7
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 6.3-1.71 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8Western Michigan at Toledo34.4
- wk13Miami (OH) at Western Michigan32.8
- wk5Western Michigan at Buffalo31.6
- wk9Bowling Green at Western Michigan31.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Western Michigan is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- GameAbove Sports Bowl33%
- Frisco Bowl8.5%
- Cure Bowl8.4%
- Boca Raton Bowl7.7%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl7.4%
- Independence Bowl7.0%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Western Michigan a player since 2010 — 16 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Western Michigan's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.