@ USC · Wk 2Win prob 1%Model +30.9Schedule & Results
USCUSC17-351%Wk 3vs
UABUAB-0.351%Wk 4@
CLTCharlotte-6.666%Wk 5vs
ARSTArkansas State-9.773%Wk 6@
LTLouisiana Tech+6.136%Wk 7vs
TROYTroy-5.965%Wk 8@
USMSouthern Miss+8.630%Wk 10vs
USASouth Alabama-6.666%Wk 11@
ULMUL Monroe-4.662%Wk 12vs
CCUCoastal Carolina-14.382%Wk 13@
GASTGeorgia State-4.461%Team Leaders
D'Wayne' WinfieldPassing189 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT- D'Wayne' WinfieldRushing84 yds · 1 TD · 10.5 avg
Caden JensenReceiving5 rec · 77 yds · 0 TD
Brent Gordon Jr.Tackles7 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Louisiana
All news →Louisiana can throw on USC, but not push
D'Wayne' Winfield produced eight of Louisiana's eleven explosive plays
Roster · 105 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Coleman Carter | QB | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Natchez, MS |
| 7 | Lunch Winfield | QB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Lutcher, LA |
| 11 | Daniel Beale | QB | SO | 6'2" | 206 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 13 | Alex Munoz | QB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Lafayette, LA |
| 16 | Sam Altmann | QB | SO | 6'3" | 208 | Lafayette, LA |
| 0 | Darrell Smith | RB | FR | 5'8" | 200 | Picayune, MS |
| 20 | JJ Garner | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Timpson, TX |
| 21 | Ke'Rynn Smith | RB | FR | 5'7" | 173 | Metairie, LA |
| 22 | Anthony Reagan Jr. | RB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Woodbury, NJ |
| 24 | Steven Blanco | RB | SO | 5'9" | 215 | Saint Martinville, LA |
| 29 | Owen Morris | RB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | New Iberia, LA |
| 2 | Rahji Dennis | WR | SO | 5'10" | 175 | New Orleans, LA |
| 4 | Trenton Chaney | WR | FR | 5'9" | 178 | Lutcher, LA |
| 6 | Shelton Sampson Jr. | WR | JR | 6'4" | 206 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 8 | Jaydon Johnson | WR | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Missouri City, TX |
| 9 | KeDarius Wade | WR | JR | 6'4" | 200 | Jackson, MS |
| 10 | Russell Babineaux | WR | FR | 5'9" | 178 | Lafayette, LA |
| 15 | Ja'Corian Norris | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Pineville, LA |
| 17 | Landon Strother | WR | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Lafayette, LA |
| 80 | Jayden Lewis | WR | FR | 6'4" | 185 | Cecilia, LA |
| 85 | Landon Baptiste | WR | JR | 6'4" | 180 | Lafayette, LA |
| 87 | Kristion Brooks | WR | FR | 6'2" | 176 | Zachary, LA |
| 18 | Khristian Mackintrush | TE | FR | 6'2" | 231 | McKinney, TX |
| 43 | Aiden Falgout | TE | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Lafayette, LA |
| 44 | Teddy Gawlik | TE | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Houma, LA |
| 46 | Emiliano Soldevilla | TE | JR | 6'3" | 246 | Houston, TX |
| 82 | Quandre Coates | TE | FR | 6'4" | 257 | Anahuac, TX |
| 83 | Brock Chappell | TE | SR | 6'5" | 252 | Holly Springs, NC |
| 86 | Jerry Birdlow | TE | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Slidell, LA |
| 88 | Caden Jensen | TE | JR | 6'6" | 265 | Flower Mound, TX |
| 50 | Cooper Fordham | OL | JR | 6'2" | 295 | Ponte Vedra, FL |
| 52 | Ryder Bentley | OL | SO | 6'6" | 300 | Monroe, LA |
| 53 | Gunnar Goodwin | OL | FR | 6'4" | 296 | Corinth, MS |
| 55 | Baylynn Williams | OL | FR | 6'5" | 318 | Palestine, TX |
| 57 | Zay Alexander | OL | SO | 6'7" | 322 | Tupelo, MS |
| 58 | Trey Shaw | OL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 59 | Andrew Martinez | OL | JR | 6'3" | 306 | Metairie, LA |
| 60 | Jackson Hammond | OL | SO | 6'0" | 300 | Lafayette, LA |
| 61 | Jayce Mitchell | OL | SO | 6'3" | 322 | Destrehan, LA |
| 65 | Xzavier Brown | OL | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Ashdown, AR |
| 66 | Colin Harrington | OL | FR | 6'7" | 275 | Richland, WA |
| 67 | Jayden Michael | OL | FR | 6'4" | 327 | Lutcher, LA |
| 69 | Jai'Vale Mays-Hudson | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Daphne, AL |
| 71 | George Jackson | OL | SR | 6'5" | 315 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 72 | J'Marion Gooch | OL | JR | 6'7" | 308 | Gallatin, TN |
| 73 | Jayden McAllister | OL | FR | 6'4" | 297 | Missouri City, TX |
| 74 | Drake Perry | OL | FR | 6'1" | 325 | Lafayette, LA |
| 75 | Kaden Moreau | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Pineville, LA |
| 76 | Matthew Broussard | OL | JR | 6'4" | 313 | Thibodaux, LA |
| 77 | Jakoby Isom | OL | SO | 6'1" | 318 | Houston, TX |
| 78 | Michael Bowens Jr. | OL | FR | 6'5" | 318 | Brewton, AL |
| 79 | David Baker | OL | FR | 6'4" | 379 | New Orleans, LA |
| 9 | Lance Williams | DE | JR | 6'3" | 233 | New Orleans, LA |
| 17 | Tito Chikere | DE | SR | 6'3" | 247 | Sugar Land, TX |
| 41 | Chase Edwards | DE | JR | 6'7" | 295 | Houston, TX |
| 0 | Priest Ashe | DL | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Crowley, TX |
| 31 | Ty Dominique | DL | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Slidell, LA |
| 68 | Fitzgerald West Jr. | DL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Lafayette, LA |
| 91 | Jordan Pinnock | DL | FR | 6'3" | 236 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 93 | Brodrick Stewart | DL | JR | 6'1" | 305 | Arlington, TX |
| 95 | Maxie Baudoin IV | DL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Youngsville, LA |
| 96 | Chase Howard | DL | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Blount County, AL |
| 97 | Xavier Waters | DL | FR | 6'1" | 315 | Houston, TX |
| 98 | Jeramiah Holts | DL | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Vinton, LA |
| 99 | Ashton Wright | DL | SO | 6'4" | 298 | Mobile, AL |
| 2 | Ashley Williams | LB | JR | 6'5" | 260 | Zachary, LA |
| 3 | Micah Johnson | LB | JR | 6'0" | 232 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 4 | Princeton Malbrue | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Lafayette, LA |
| 6 | Conor McPherson | LB | SO | 6'2" | 219 | Montgomery, AL |
| 7 | Ethan Veal | LB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Zachary, LA |
| 15 | Na'Tori Brown | LB | SO | 6'5" | 248 | Southaven, MS |
| 16 | Kailep Edwards | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | New Orleans, LA |
| 33 | AJ Spencer | LB | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Houston, TX |
| 36 | Devin Franklin | LB | FR | 6'5" | 210 | Oak Grove, LA |
| 37 | Harrison Kidder | LB | FR | 6'0" | 198 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 44 | Jake St. Andre | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | — |
| 45 | Patrick Gosslee | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Shreveport, LA |
| 51 | Hayden Darbonne | LB | JR | 6'1" | 235 | Eunice, LA |
| 80 | Lester Jones | LB | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 10 | Avery Demery | CB | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Manvel, TX |
| 11 | Brent Gordon Jr. | CB | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Cecilia, LA |
| 13 | Curley Reed III | CB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Lake Charles, LA |
| 18 | Cam Riley | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Monroe, LA |
| 20 | Braylon Walker | CB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Lafayette, LA |
| 22 | Kevin Malone | CB | FR | 5'9" | 172 | Prichard, AL |
| 23 | Jeremiah Moses | CB | JR | 6'0" | 186 | Shreveport, LA |
| 30 | Julius Harper | CB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Prentiss, MS |
| 47 | Maurice Brown Jr. | CB | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Lafayette, LA |
| 25 | Jayden Gloston | DB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Prairieville, LA |
| 8 | Kody Jackson | S | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Shreveport, LA |
| 19 | Luke Green | S | FR | 6'1" | 172 | Lafayette, LA |
| 21 | Maurion Eleam | S | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Monroe, LA |
| 24 | Lake Bates | S | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Stonewall, LA |
| 26 | Kerry Wilson | S | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Destrehan, LA |
| 27 | Edrick Williams | S | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Daphne, AL |
| 28 | Steven Ranel II | S | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 34 | Jayden Reed | S | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Monroe, LA |
| 35 | Collin Jacob | S | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Loreauville, LA |
| 46 | Roderick Bingham | S | FR | 5'11" | 161 | Plaquemine, LA |
| 25 | Brek Schultz | PK | FR | 5'8" | 185 | Denham Springs, LA |
| 40 | Logan Klotz | PK | SR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| 95 | Tony Sterner | PK | SR | 6'0" | 197 | Kingwood, TX |
| 49 | Mason Golding | P | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Perth |
| 48 | Jackson Villaume | LS | FR | 5'9" | 225 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 54 | Carson Kraft | LS | FR | 6'2" | 218 | Olathe, KS |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 128th on early downs defensively, and they are 128th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#128projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#126projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 11 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 11 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.66#30
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.67 / 2.17
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 16.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 24.2%#17
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 14.5% / 9.7%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.03#83 | 0.82#5 | 0.30#107 |
| Defense | -0.30#22 | 0.16#81 | 0.13#29 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3163rd
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.1280th
- Offense success rate54%76th
- Defense success rate allowed40%40th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs53%58th
- Offense success — passing downs58%95th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs42%50th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs35%25th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.239th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9886th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8823rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.837th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.679th
- Defense line yards allowed2.175th
- Offense highlight yards1.774th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0782nd
- Offense power success0.7550th
- Defense power success allowed0.5079th
- Offense stuff rate0.1842nd
- Defense stuff rate0.3082nd
Third down
- Third down conversion38%34th
- Third down distance faced5.879th
- Third down conversion allowed54%12th
- Third down distance forced5.59th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1455th
- Net success rate — second half0.0851st
Roster
- Returning usage66%77th
- Returning EPA18976th
- Team talent composite59128th
- Recruiting class rank91.034th
- Recruiting class points18034th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.308 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-0 record through 1 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Louisiana is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Louisiana in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 6-7 | 5-3 | 46% | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 9.6 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 13-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 2020 | 10-1 | 7-1 | 91% | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 7-2 | 79% | 10.8 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 7-7 | 5-4 | 50% | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 4.8 | +0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.7-4.6. Wins the Sun Belt in 10%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.
Win out and it is 72%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.3 points since preseason.
- At 0 losses they are 72% where the average Sun Belt team is 80%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 1.0% of seasons, having won their league in 96% of those.
Louisiana’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6at Louisiana Tech2.2
- wk7vs Troy1.6
- wk5vs Arkansas State1.6
- wk12vs Coastal Carolina1.5
- wk10vs South Alabama1.5
- wk3vs UAB1.4
Who to root for
Games Louisiana is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk6Ohio State over Maryland0.5
- wk8Washington State over Boise State0.4
- wk5Utah State over Boise State0.4
- wk10UL Monroe over Arkansas State0.4
- wk12Charlotte over Tulsa0.4
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.4
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 5.1-2.94 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Louisiana can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6Louisiana at Louisiana Tech17.2
- wk2Louisiana at USC15.1
- wk5Arkansas State at Louisiana14.4
- wk7Troy at Louisiana13.5
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Louisiana is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.0% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Frisco Bowl13%
- New Mexico Bowl9.5%
- Cure Bowl8.9%
- Boca Raton Bowl8.7%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl8.3%
- New Orleans Bowl7.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent Louisiana a player since 2010 — 31 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Louisiana's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.