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Kansas State

Kansas State Wildcats

Big 12·2-0·
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Elo
1616#34
SP+
12.7#23
FPI
8.8
AP
NR
Nextvs Tulane · Wk 3Win prob 83%Model -14.9
Talent #47 (718.7)Recruiting class #5071% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Kansas State

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Washington State's Short-yardage problem meets the wrong defense

Matchup · 5d ago

Kansas State runs away from Nicholls, 71-3

Matchup · 6d ago

Roster · 112 players

FR 25SO 25JR 23SR 39
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Avery JohnsonQBSR6'3"200
3Blake BarnettQBJR6'1"218
7Jacob KnuthQBSR6'4"225
10Dillon DuffQBSO6'2"205
4Joe JacksonRBSR6'0"212
9Jay HarrisRBSR6'1"225
20Rodney Fields Jr.RBJR5'9"193
21LJ McGheeRBFR5'7"186
24Tanner WestRBFR6'0"190
31Monterrio Elston Jr.RBSO5'7"191
1Izaiah WilliamsWRJR6'0"195
5Josh ManningWRSR6'3"217
6Sterling LockettWRSR5'10"170
8Brandon WhiteWRSR5'7"168
12Jaron TibbsWRSR6'3"212
13Kaprice KeithWRFR6'1"212
14Max LovettWRFR5'11"195
15Derrick Salley Jr.WRJR6'3"234
16Julius WilsonWRFR6'2"199
17Adonis MoiseWRSO5'11"194
18Larry Porter IVWRSO6'1"195
84Isaac KochWRSR6'1"198
85Nash MorrisonWRFR6'4"187
0Linkon CureTESO6'5"242
49Elias WilsonTEFR6'5"215
80Will AnciauxTESR6'6"241
81Owen HarringtonTESO6'2"245
86Garrett OakleyTESR6'5"249
87Lawson McGrawTEFR6'4"232
88Arley MorrellTEFR6'5"224
50Brock HeathOLSO6'5"292
53Lamarcus BarberOLFR6'3"323
54Keiton JonesOLSO6'3"322
55Kyle RakersOLJR6'4"304
57Delvin MorrisOLSR6'3"293
59George FitzpatrickOLSR6'6"301
60Keegan CollinsOLFR6'6"288
61Chase DuarteOLSO6'4"315
62Jordan JensenOLJR6'4"297
64Bennett FraserOLFR6'5"277
65Tyler JohnsonOLSR6'6"312
66Michael CapriaOLSR6'2"300
68Joe VickersOLSR6'6"290
70Gus HawkinsOLJR6'7"307
71Dylan VillarouelOLSO6'3"328
72Ryan HowardOLJR6'7"295
73Oliver MillerOLFR6'6"294
74Navarro SchunkeOLJR6'6"322
77Tanner MorleyOLSR6'6"320
78John PastoreOLSR6'6"302
79Charlie AdamsOLJR6'2"327
1Wendell GregoryDEJR6'3"265
30Dalton KnappDESO6'4"239
39Travis BatesDESR6'3"278
40Jayden BryantDEJR6'4"230
56Elijah HillDESO6'1"245
83Jackson HollieDEFR6'5"221
90Brad StanyerDESO6'5"280
91Jordan AllenDESR6'4"263
98Tucker AshfordDEFR6'3"273
15Kamari BurnsDTSR6'3"302
19De'Arieun HicksDTJR6'3"283
58Miles MerchantDTJR6'2"301
75Holden BassDTJR6'3"299
76Austin RamseyDTSR6'4"309
88Eli JacksonDTJR6'2"280
94Kingston HallDTFR6'2"282
95Patrick TackieDTSR6'3"293
97Carnell Jackson Jr.DTFR6'2"350
99Adrian BekibeleDTFR6'3"308
4Mekhi MasonLBSR6'2"233
6Darien Whitaker Jr.LBSO6'3"246
16DJ Ackerson Jr.LBFR6'1"207
20Jacobi Oliphant Jr.LBJR6'4"230
23Asa NewsomLBSR6'3"224
26Sawyer SchilkeLBSO6'3"230
28Rex Van WyheLBSR6'5"244
28Rex Van WyheLBSR6'5"244
35Gabe PowersLBSR6'3"233
41Ashton MooreLBSO6'0"215
44Weston PolkLBSO6'1"221
5Micheal Graham Jr.CBJR5'11"189
7Kaleb PattersonCBSR6'1"192
9Donovan McIntoshCBSR6'3"187
12Serious StinyardCBSO6'0"190
13RJ CollinsCBSO5'11"178
21JoJo ScottCBSO6'1"182
24Martel JacksonCBSO6'1"180
25Zashon RichCBJR6'1"206
27Damion MillerCBJR6'3"195
29Josiah VilmaelCBFR6'0"195
32Garrick DixonCBFR6'1"194
34Nick McClellanCBFR5'11"193
0Koy BeasleySJR5'10"187
2Adrian MaddoxSSR6'1"194
3Ja'Son PrevardSSR6'2"200
10Logan BartleySSO6'2"213
14Jet DineenSSR5'10"200
17Mikey BergeronSSR6'2"194
18Wesley FairSSR6'1"200
19Blake JaySFR5'11"178
22Jace AdlerSSO6'2"200
31Dominic MitchellSSO6'1"210
36Jack FabrisSSR6'2"190
37Robert Hammond IIIPKSR6'1"182
43Luis RodriguezPKJR6'1"210
96Aidan O'NeillPKFR6'0"204
8Simon McClannanPSR5'11"183
29Dylan DavidsonPJR6'1"200
33Andrew JohnsonLSSR6'1"232
45Jaxson DuffieldLSSO6'0"205
46Sam DolphensLSFR5'11"211

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
52.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
5.0
scoring defense
Differential
+47.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
523.0#21
Yards / play
7.2#29
Passing yards / game
219.5#78
Rushing yards / game
303.5#9
First downs / game
29.0#12
3rd down %
70.4%#3
4th down %
0.0%#108
Time of possession
34:02#24
Defense
Yards allowed / game
144.0#5
Yards / play allowed
2.7#6
Pass yards allowed / game
47.5#3
Rush yards allowed / game
96.5#52
3rd down % allowed
21.4%#16
Sacks
5#29
Tackles for loss
18#5
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-1#89
Takeaways
2#53
Giveaways
3#95
Penalties / game
1.5#2
Penalty yards / game
17.5#4

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Kansas State is in year 1 under Collin Klein. The strengths are offensive, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 113th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 111th at staying out of the backfield.

Kansas State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #11
    projected
  • Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #30
    projected
  • Offenserunning it
    #31
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #113
    projected
  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #111
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
8.4 – 3.6
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
6.4
of 10 games
Bowl odds
97%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
83%
vs Tulane
Toughest
40%
vs Houston

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 26% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (26%)Bowl eligible 97% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBAvery Johnson
+23.9 EPA
RBJoe Jackson, Rodney Fields Jr. +1
+19.7 EPA
WRBrandon White, Joshua Manning +1
+13.1 EPA
TEGarrett Oakley, Will Anciaux +1
+2.2 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBAvery Johnson
~$874K
EPA +23.90.419/play57 snaps
RBJoe Jackson
~$253K
EPA +11.20.559/play20 snaps
RBRodney Fields Jr.
~$249K
EPA +10.30.428/play24 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3166th#47
Def-0.2294th#9
Explosiveness
Off1.4481st#27
Def1.1569th#44
Field position
Off66.521st#109
Def73.045th#77
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off5.6388th#18
Def1.0093rd#11
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 3
Margin -1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3044th#78
Off · rush
0.3682nd#26

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.3681st#27
Def-0.0254th#64
Passing
Off0.3043rd#79
Def-0.2596th#7

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.62#32
2nd-level / open-field
1.61 / 2.87
Power / stuff (off)
75.0% / 14.8%
Havoc — total (def)
26.5%#9
Havoc — front 7 / DB
19.5% / 7.1%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.13
Def-0.50
Pass downs
Off0.72
Def0.12

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.02#940.33#531.28#9
Defense-0.23#33-0.08#33-0.07#13

Elo Trajectory

NichollsFinal
Elo rating 1616 → 1681+65 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.5993rd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2896th
  • Offense success rate65%98th
  • Defense success rate allowed23%90th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs72%98th
  • Offense success — passing downs44%76th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs25%93rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs21%67th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.253rd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.423rd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.171st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.831st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.884th
  • Defense line yards allowed1.295th
  • Offense highlight yards2.079th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.6752nd
  • Offense power success1.099th
  • Defense power success allowed0.5079th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1175th
  • Defense stuff rate0.4196th

Third down

  • Third down conversion82%99th
  • Third down distance faced6.845th
  • Third down conversion allowed25%77th
  • Third down distance forced8.882nd

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.4091st
  • Net success rate — second half0.5099th

Roster

  • Returning usage80%93rd
  • Returning EPA16867th
  • Team talent composite71966th
  • Recruiting class rank50.064th
  • Recruiting class points20864th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.314#47 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.297#79
Rush EPA/play
+0.357#27
Explosiveness
1.439#27
Pts/opportunity
5.63#18
Success rate
51.0%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.060 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — top 7 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.219#9 · elite
Havoc rate (total)
26.5%#9
Front-7 havoc
19.5%
DB havoc
7.1%
Big play rate allowed
1.152#44
Success rate allowed
25.0%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

52.5 PPG offense, 5.0 allowed — +47.5 margin/game
Points per game
52.5
Points allowed/game
5.0
Scoring margin/game
+47.5
Turnover margin
-1won 2 · lost 3
Production returning
71%
Talent rank (247)
#47

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE66thEXPLOSIVENESS81thFINISHING88thFIELD POS21thDEFENSE94thHAVOC94th50th100th
Offense
66th
Explosiveness
81th
Finishing
88th
Field Pos
21th
Defense
94th
Havoc
94th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+7.4
#42
Offense
+3.8
#41
Defense
-3.6
#54
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Kansas State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Kansas State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Air ForceSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play +0.371Def EPA/play -0.215Elo 1424
Match
97%
AlabamaSP+ +20.0
Off EPA/play +0.274Def EPA/play -0.174Elo 1823
Match
97%
New MexicoSP+ +4.4
Off EPA/play +0.301Def EPA/play -0.150Elo 1558
Match
96%
James MadisonSP+ -0.3
Off EPA/play +0.303Def EPA/play -0.133Elo 1776
Match
95%
Georgia SouthernSP+ -5.8
Off EPA/play +0.363Def EPA/play -0.315Elo 1376
Match
94%
Texas TechSP+ +18.9
Off EPA/play +0.253Def EPA/play -0.125Elo 1870
Match
94%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -10.3, #94 of 1282016: +7.1, #38 of 1282017: +2.3, #60 of 1302018: -4.4, #92 of 1302019: +4.0, #46 of 1302020: -1.9, #74 of 1242021: +10.5, #33 of 1302022: +16.5, #13 of 1312023: +14.5, #24 of 1332024: +17.6, #14 of 1342025: +6.7, #49 of 1362026: +7.4, #42 of 138
20152026
Now +7.4 · #42 of 138Best +17.6 in 2024Worst -10.3 in 2015

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
2.0+0.0
20256-65-4
50%
7.6-1.6
20249-45-4
69%
9.6-0.6
20239-46-3
69%
7.6+1.4
202210-48-2
71%
10.1-0.1
20218-54-5
62%
7.4+0.6
20204-64-5
40%
5.0-1.0
20198-55-4
62%
6.4+1.6
20185-73-6
42%
5.6-0.6
20178-55-4
62%
6.4+1.6

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

14%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 8.0-4.1. Top-four bye in 3.0%. Wins the Big 12 in 7.5%.

If they finish with…

100%
0 losses
94%
1 loss
28%
2 losses
1.7%
3 losses
0.1%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

down 0.8 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 28% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.

Kansas State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11at TCU20.3
  • wk12vs Arizona19.7
  • wk4at Cincinnati19.4
  • wk8at Arizona State18.9
  • wk9at Colorado18.3
  • wk6vs Houston18.2

Who to root for

Games Kansas State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech3.0
  • wk2Oregon State over Texas Tech2.9
  • wk3Houston over Texas Tech1.7
  • wk8Cincinnati over Texas Tech1.4
  • wk12Baylor over Texas Tech1.3
  • wk5Northwestern over Penn State1.2
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 5.4-3.63 of 16 by title odds
7.5%
Wins the Big 12
18%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk12Arizona at Kansas State10.4
  • wk11Kansas State at TCU10.3
  • wk4Kansas State at Cincinnati10.0
  • wk6Houston at Kansas State9.7

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

85%
Bowl eligible
67%
Placed in a bowl
14%
In the playoff
19%
Season over in November

Kansas State is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Alamo Bowl11%
  • Texas Bowl10%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl8.8%
  • Liberty Bowl7.8%
  • Rate Bowl7.0%
  • Independence Bowl6.4%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.