Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills
Houston TexansMarket
- Book
- +1.5
- o44.5
- Exchange
- +1.2
- 48% HOU
- Volume
- 1400k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Houston Texans is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -2
- Texans
- Win prob
- 56%
- Texans
- Likely range
- -15 to 18
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1660 − 1671 = -0.4 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -0.3 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +2.0 Texans
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1671#4
- FPI rank
- #22026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1660#5
- FPI rank
- #122026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Texans 2–0- 2025 wk 12Bills at Texans19–23Texans
- 2024 wk 5Bills at Texans20–23Texans
From the 2024 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
4 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
3,102 trades · $217,915Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 3,102 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus +1.2| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 | 0 | +0.27 |
| Kalshi | +0.9 | +0.79 | -0.28 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 44.5
275 trades · $8,116Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Read at 44.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 37% of the money- Houston Texans10,051 @ 0.48$4,824455×
- Houston Texans8,835 @ 0.48$4,241400×
- Houston Texans4,010 @ 0.48$1,925181×
- Houston Texans3,829 @ 0.48$1,838173×
- Houston Texans2,495 @ 0.48$1,198113×
- Houston Texans2,412 @ 0.48$1,158109×
- Houston Texans2,010 @ 0.48$96591×
- Houston Texans2,010 @ 0.48$96591×
- Houston Texans2,010 @ 0.48$96591×
- Houston Texans2,000 @ 0.48$96091×
- Houston Texans1,434 @ 0.48$68865×
- Buffalo Bills989 @ 0.53$52449×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $10.61), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.47 / 0.48 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.