Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+14.5%

Hawai'i

Least

−33.9%

Army

Spread

48.4%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

136 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.30(r² = 0.09)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±34%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Hawai'i	Mountain West	63.6	49.1	+14.5	+12.6	22	-2.7	-35.7
2	Maryland	Big Ten	66.3	52.2	+14.2	+14.6	25	+3.8	-32.0
3	San José State	Mountain West	63.7	50.2	+13.4	+14.0	31	+0.9	-9.3
4	California	ACC	61.7	49.9	+11.8	+11.2	23	+1.0	-22.2
5	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	64.1	52.5	+11.6	+14.3	51	+17.8	+13.7
6	SMU	ACC	57.8	47.5	+10.3	+10.4	14	+1.2	-43.2
7	Delaware	Conference USA	60.2	50.1	+10.2	+11.5	37	+10.1	-9.1
8	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	63.5	53.4	+10.1	+10.0	24	+4.4	-12.5
9	Alabama	SEC	57.3	47.2	+10.1	+9.6	34	+7.7	-14.3
10	Minnesota	Big Ten	59.7	49.9	+9.8	+11.6	13	-4.5	-42.9
11	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	57.3	47.6	+9.6	+8.3	19	+0.1	-31.4
12	New Mexico State	Conference USA	62.2	52.7	+9.6	+9.2	15	-2.6	-28.1
13	Pittsburgh	ACC	56.6	47.4	+9.2	+9.2	33	+9.8	-7.1
14	Louisville	ACC	54.9	45.8	+9.1	+8.1	15	-5.3	-45.6
15	LSU	SEC	57.4	48.4	+9.1	+11.3	9	-5.9	-40.5
16	Clemson	ACC	57.7	49.1	+8.6	+9.1	33	+5.1	-22.4
17	Baylor	Big 12	60.6	52.4	+8.2	+10.2	54	+21.4	+20.8
18	Ohio State	Big Ten	51.1	43.8	+7.3	+6.8	27	+5.3	-41.2
19	North Texas	American Athletic	52.3	45.1	+7.3	+8.9	44	+17.2	+0.0
20	TCU	Big 12	54.8	47.6	+7.2	+6.7	28	+8.3	-17.5
21	UConn	FBS Independents	54.5	47.3	+7.2	+7.5	24	+4.2	-24.4
22	Boston College	ACC	59.3	52.3	+7.0	+7.2	30	+2.9	+0.0
23	Duke	ACC	55.3	49.1	+6.3	+4.7	43	+15.5	-7.5
24	Missouri State	Conference USA	57.5	51.3	+6.2	+5.6	12	-1.8	-46.0
25	USC	Big Ten	51.5	45.5	+6.0	+6.9	35	+10.5	-6.7
26	App State	Sun Belt	56.4	50.6	+5.8	+4.0	30	+3.4	-22.2
27	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	58.0	52.2	+5.8	+5.6	20	-3.6	-21.1
28	Arizona	Big 12	55.4	50.0	+5.4	+3.9	31	+2.4	-24.0
29	Vanderbilt	SEC	52.6	47.6	+4.9	+4.3	31	+8.3	-4.5
30	Oklahoma	SEC	54.5	49.7	+4.8	+4.2	13	-6.3	-39.0
31	UTSA	American Athletic	53.4	48.7	+4.7	+7.8	29	+9.7	+0.0
32	NC State	ACC	52.3	47.6	+4.7	+4.0	29	+8.2	-17.1
33	Texas	SEC	52.9	48.6	+4.3	+3.4	18	-3.9	-34.9
34	Washington State	Pac-12	50.6	46.4	+4.2	+3.7	25	+0.6	-26.2
35	Utah State	Mountain West	54.6	50.8	+3.8	+2.9	14	-0.2	-41.2
36	Ole Miss	SEC	49.1	45.5	+3.6	+5.6	29	+4.5	-25.0
37	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	52.8	49.3	+3.5	+3.7	18	-4.4	-45.0
38	Texas Tech	Big 12	52.5	49.0	+3.5	+3.4	23	+4.2	-18.4
39	Florida	SEC	52.9	49.5	+3.4	+4.2	22	-0.1	-19.4
40	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	51.0	47.6	+3.4	+6.0	20	+0.8	-38.2
41	Rutgers	Big Ten	51.3	47.9	+3.4	+5.5	39	+10.2	-5.1
42	Illinois	Big Ten	49.3	46.0	+3.3	+2.1	28	+5.6	-20.0
43	Akron	Mid-American	54.5	51.3	+3.1	+3.5	22	-2.3	-16.2
44	Miami	ACC	49.5	46.4	+3.1	+2.3	22	-2.2	-47.6
45	UAB	American Athletic	56.0	52.9	+3.1	+1.2	44	+9.3	+7.1
46	Georgia State	Sun Belt	57.5	54.6	+2.9	+1.5	35	+3.2	+0.0
47	Purdue	Big Ten	57.1	54.3	+2.8	+4.3	25	-0.3	-21.4
48	Sam Houston	Conference USA	56.9	54.3	+2.5	+2.4	30	+4.5	+1.9
49	Texas A&M	SEC	48.0	45.4	+2.5	+3.1	21	+2.9	-24.2
50	Buffalo	Mid-American	57.9	55.4	+2.5	+3.7	21	+0.0	-32.6
51	UNLV	Mountain West	51.7	49.3	+2.4	+3.1	28	+3.8	-18.2
52	Michigan State	Big Ten	53.6	51.3	+2.4	+2.6	32	+5.5	-20.0
53	Oregon State	Pac-12	54.7	52.5	+2.2	+1.5	19	+1.6	-12.1
54	Oregon	Big Ten	47.8	45.6	+2.1	+1.7	40	+14.1	-8.1
55	North Carolina	ACC	52.7	50.6	+2.1	+3.0	17	-7.3	-41.9
56	Virginia	ACC	50.8	48.8	+2.0	+3.7	28	+7.1	-17.0
57	Nebraska	Big Ten	49.8	47.9	+1.9	+3.3	28	+1.2	-25.6
58	UCF	Big 12	54.9	53.1	+1.8	+2.8	41	+5.3	-2.0
59	Washington	Big Ten	49.0	47.3	+1.7	+2.5	28	+7.4	-7.7
60	Tulane	American Athletic	46.6	45.0	+1.6	+2.4	24	+4.1	-41.9
61	Memphis	American Athletic	52.3	50.9	+1.4	+1.9	28	+1.6	-11.1
62	Stanford	ACC	53.7	52.3	+1.4	-1.1	20	-0.7	-17.1
63	Wake Forest	ACC	50.1	48.8	+1.3	+3.0	22	+1.0	-29.2
64	Temple	American Athletic	51.4	50.2	+1.2	-1.3	18	-2.3	-30.3
65	Colorado State	Mountain West	57.0	55.9	+1.1	+2.4	27	+3.6	-15.2
66	UCLA	Big Ten	53.8	52.7	+1.1	+1.5	33	+5.1	-7.0
67	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	51.8	50.8	+0.9	+2.3	20	-4.0	-28.9
68	Tennessee	SEC	49.2	48.3	+0.9	+1.2	29	-0.4	-21.2
69	New Mexico	Mountain West	48.6	47.8	+0.8	+2.3	36	+13.0	-8.1
70	Charlotte	American Athletic	57.3	56.6	+0.7	-0.2	22	+2.9	-6.7
71	Massachusetts	Mid-American	55.4	54.8	+0.6	+2.6	25	+8.4	+7.4
72	Arkansas	SEC	52.0	51.8	+0.1	-0.2	20	-2.1	-21.9
73	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	45.8	45.7	+0.1	+0.5	46	+17.9	-11.4
74	Cincinnati	Big 12	50.3	50.3	+0.0	+1.4	31	+7.0	-12.2
75	Troy	Sun Belt	53.3	53.3	-0.0	-1.8	30	+8.2	-1.9
76	UTEP	Conference USA	55.4	55.5	-0.1	+0.5	35	+8.8	-5.4
77	Florida International	Conference USA	49.4	49.8	-0.4	+0.4	37	+11.5	-9.8
78	BYU	Big 12	46.6	47.0	-0.4	+0.6	32	+6.9	-17.3
79	Toledo	Mid-American	50.5	51.0	-0.5	-1.8	24	+1.2	-19.4
80	Northwestern	Big Ten	49.1	49.7	-0.5	-0.7	32	+5.6	-20.0
81	Oklahoma State	Big 12	54.4	55.1	-0.7	+0.2	27	+2.9	+0.0
82	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	49.2	49.9	-0.7	+0.7	24	-3.3	-22.2
83	Boise State	Mountain West	48.2	49.0	-0.8	-3.1	30	+7.5	-12.8
84	East Carolina	American Athletic	46.3	47.1	-0.8	+1.2	35	+7.8	-13.6
85	Indiana	Big Ten	43.5	44.4	-0.9	-2.0	23	+1.5	-31.3
86	South Florida	American Athletic	49.0	49.9	-0.9	-0.5	24	+3.1	-41.7
87	Colorado	Big 12	52.0	52.9	-0.9	-2.2	23	+1.4	-26.2
88	Auburn	SEC	49.4	50.3	-1.0	-0.5	26	+5.3	-20.0
89	Georgia Tech	ACC	47.2	48.4	-1.2	-1.3	19	-4.1	-31.6
90	Kentucky	SEC	49.8	51.0	-1.3	-3.0	17	-1.4	-28.6
91	Arizona State	Big 12	47.2	48.8	-1.6	-0.5	33	+7.4	-24.1
92	Syracuse	ACC	52.8	54.4	-1.6	-1.0	28	+2.6	-17.4
93	Iowa State	Big 12	45.3	46.9	-1.7	-2.8	32	+5.6	+2.1
94	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	48.3	50.0	-1.7	-1.1	13	-1.1	-30.0
95	Kansas State	Big 12	46.6	48.4	-1.8	-2.5	35	+6.4	-18.0
96	Michigan	Big Ten	45.7	47.6	-1.9	-1.6	19	-5.7	-39.0
97	Wyoming	Mountain West	53.5	55.4	-1.9	-1.4	29	-0.5	-22.2
98	South Carolina	SEC	51.2	53.2	-2.0	-0.8	34	+2.7	-2.2
99	Kansas	Big 12	47.6	49.7	-2.0	-1.6	28	+0.2	-18.4
100	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	46.6	49.0	-2.4	-2.1	22	+0.8	-12.5
101	Georgia	SEC	43.9	46.5	-2.6	-2.4	25	+5.8	-31.4
102	Fresno State	Mountain West	46.0	48.7	-2.8	-5.0	21	-1.0	-31.3
103	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	41.7	44.9	-3.2	-3.1	21	-1.7	-45.0
104	James Madison	Sun Belt	43.2	46.4	-3.3	-3.6	25	+5.7	-18.8
105	Penn State	Big Ten	44.1	47.4	-3.3	-2.6	39	+9.8	-17.1
106	Kent State	Mid-American	48.5	52.2	-3.7	-4.6	36	+12.5	-3.0
107	Texas State	Sun Belt	43.9	47.7	-3.9	-2.7	29	+3.9	-28.9
108	Utah	Big 12	44.1	48.1	-4.0	-2.8	39	+13.8	+3.0
109	Mississippi State	SEC	47.1	51.2	-4.1	-3.3	25	+5.0	-2.5
110	Tulsa	American Athletic	49.0	53.2	-4.2	-3.6	41	+7.5	-6.3
111	Houston	Big 12	41.8	46.5	-4.7	-5.3	32	+7.9	-22.6
112	Ohio	Mid-American	39.7	45.6	-5.9	-4.4	34	+6.8	-22.2
113	Marshall	Sun Belt	43.9	50.1	-6.2	-7.1	15	-6.9	-40.4
114	Missouri	SEC	44.0	50.7	-6.8	-7.8	28	+5.1	-13.9
115	Wisconsin	Big Ten	43.4	50.9	-7.6	-5.1	21	-5.3	-31.3
116	Nevada	Mountain West	45.8	53.5	-7.7	-9.7	19	+0.2	-29.7
117	Florida State	ACC	44.9	52.6	-7.8	-8.4	37	+6.6	-2.6
118	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	45.0	53.0	-8.0	-8.8	28	+10.5	+3.5
119	West Virginia	Big 12	44.4	52.6	-8.1	-9.2	36	+10.1	-17.8
120	Iowa	Big Ten	40.6	48.9	-8.3	-11.4	18	-7.8	-36.1
121	Louisiana	Sun Belt	43.4	52.1	-8.6	-9.0	18	-3.4	-26.7
122	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	40.6	49.8	-9.1	-9.1	15	-4.5	-41.3
123	Liberty	Conference USA	41.1	50.3	-9.2	-10.6	24	-0.5	-16.2
124	Virginia Tech	ACC	43.6	52.8	-9.2	-10.6	30	-2.6	-19.1
125	Ball State	Mid-American	44.4	53.9	-9.5	-11.2	19	+0.4	-7.9
126	Bowling Green	Mid-American	42.7	53.3	-10.5	-11.1	21	-5.3	-35.6
127	South Alabama	Sun Belt	39.3	49.9	-10.6	-10.0	43	+8.4	+2.1
128	San Diego State	Mountain West	37.3	47.9	-10.6	-10.7	24	-3.2	-32.6
129	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	36.2	47.8	-11.6	-13.3	27	+4.8	-35.2
130	Western Michigan	Mid-American	33.7	46.8	-13.0	-12.5	30	+1.6	-16.7
131	Central Michigan	Mid-American	35.7	49.2	-13.5	-11.5	23	-1.6	-33.3
132	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	34.4	53.8	-19.4	-18.5	33	+7.0	-10.6
133	Navy	American Athletic	23.9	43.6	-19.7	-19.7	40	+14.5	-13.9
134	Rice	American Athletic	29.1	53.2	-24.1	-24.2	27	+6.0	-25.0
135	Air Force	Mountain West	21.5	49.0	-27.5	-26.8	50	+11.1	-12.8
136	Army	American Athletic	14.4	48.3	-33.9	-32.5	60	+21.3	+0.0

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.