Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+16.3%

San José State

Least

−31.3%

Air Force

Spread

47.6%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

134 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.29(r² = 0.08)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±31%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	San José State	Mountain West	64.6	48.3	+16.3	+16.9	16	+0.9	-38.9
2	Syracuse	ACC	62.8	46.6	+16.2	+15.3	32	+11.4	-13.5
3	Colorado	Big 12	64.3	49.2	+15.2	+15.6	21	+0.9	-14.3
4	Hawai'i	Mountain West	65.2	51.7	+13.4	+13.2	27	+6.7	-10.3
5	TCU	Big 12	59.4	46.9	+12.5	+12.4	25	+1.3	-37.8
6	USC	Big Ten	60.7	48.5	+12.1	+12.6	21	-0.6	-21.9
7	Miami	ACC	57.4	46.2	+11.2	+12.4	31	+6.9	-25.0
8	Arizona	Big 12	62.9	51.9	+11.0	+11.2	22	-5.4	-14.3
9	LSU	SEC	60.1	49.2	+10.9	+11.2	27	+0.1	-24.0
10	Georgia	SEC	57.5	46.7	+10.8	+10.9	28	+5.9	-11.4
11	Fresno State	Mountain West	58.7	49.9	+8.8	+8.0	17	+2.2	-22.6
12	UCLA	Big Ten	59.6	51.0	+8.6	+6.8	19	-4.6	-30.8
13	North Texas	American Athletic	61.9	53.5	+8.4	+10.1	42	+15.5	+21.7
14	Akron	Mid-American	60.7	52.5	+8.3	+8.9	17	-1.4	-20.6
15	Clemson	ACC	57.5	49.5	+8.0	+8.8	16	-2.0	-51.3
16	Oklahoma State	Big 12	60.0	52.0	+8.0	+8.2	23	+1.5	-10.0
17	Pittsburgh	ACC	58.7	50.7	+8.0	+9.0	16	+0.4	-30.6
18	Ball State	Mid-American	60.0	52.1	+7.9	+7.3	25	+0.3	-18.2
19	Memphis	American Athletic	54.4	47.0	+7.4	+7.9	25	+4.0	-38.8
20	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	60.6	53.2	+7.3	+8.9	25	-1.7	-28.2
21	Texas	SEC	54.6	47.5	+7.1	+7.6	26	+3.9	-10.3
22	Duke	ACC	56.6	49.5	+7.0	+5.2	14	-4.5	-39.6
23	Maryland	Big Ten	60.8	53.8	+7.0	+6.6	32	+2.2	-4.0
24	Rice	American Athletic	59.9	53.0	+6.9	+6.9	17	+3.0	-22.5
25	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	55.5	48.9	+6.6	+7.3	19	-4.0	-25.6
26	California	ACC	58.5	52.2	+6.3	+5.8	21	-4.1	-6.1
27	Minnesota	Big Ten	56.2	50.1	+6.1	+7.1	13	-5.1	-42.5
28	Georgia State	Sun Belt	58.4	52.4	+5.9	+5.0	25	-0.8	+2.6
29	Louisville	ACC	54.4	48.6	+5.8	+5.7	27	+0.9	-30.2
30	Washington	Big Ten	54.5	48.7	+5.8	+4.8	24	+0.6	-25.0
31	Toledo	Mid-American	55.1	49.6	+5.5	+4.3	26	+3.2	-22.6
32	Northwestern	Big Ten	56.2	50.8	+5.4	+6.8	16	-4.0	-42.5
33	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	55.3	49.9	+5.4	+5.3	30	+4.0	-19.1
34	UTSA	American Athletic	54.6	49.3	+5.4	+6.9	25	+2.0	-12.5
35	Ohio State	Big Ten	50.6	45.3	+5.3	+4.3	31	+5.3	-19.1
36	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	54.8	49.6	+5.2	+5.1	9	-3.1	-44.4
37	Bowling Green	Mid-American	53.8	48.6	+5.2	+6.0	26	+1.9	-20.4
38	Oregon	Big Ten	49.9	44.8	+5.2	+4.0	20	-0.4	-30.3
39	Ole Miss	SEC	51.4	46.5	+4.9	+7.3	30	+4.5	-21.3
40	Washington State	Pac-12	51.0	46.6	+4.4	+5.5	32	+5.4	-10.8
41	UAB	American Athletic	57.0	52.8	+4.2	+4.9	26	+2.1	-12.8
42	Indiana	Big Ten	48.2	44.3	+4.0	+3.3	24	+2.7	-13.0
43	Nebraska	Big Ten	51.3	47.4	+3.9	+4.9	21	+6.3	-22.6
44	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	53.0	49.1	+3.8	+2.7	21	-3.3	-41.7
45	Texas Tech	Big 12	55.0	51.4	+3.6	+4.1	27	+5.5	-20.4
46	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	53.6	50.6	+3.0	+4.1	27	-4.5	-26.3
47	NC State	ACC	52.4	49.6	+2.9	+4.1	17	-2.0	-29.7
48	Utah State	Mountain West	54.6	52.3	+2.3	+3.4	28	+5.0	-13.5
49	Temple	American Athletic	54.0	52.0	+2.0	+1.2	15	+0.8	-15.9
50	Wake Forest	ACC	52.1	50.1	+1.9	+2.4	24	+5.3	-9.3
51	Arkansas	SEC	49.9	48.1	+1.8	+1.9	27	+1.7	-9.5
52	Louisiana	Sun Belt	47.6	45.9	+1.8	+2.7	28	+3.0	-13.0
53	Virginia	ACC	52.7	50.9	+1.7	+3.1	25	-0.3	-14.0
54	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	52.3	50.6	+1.7	+2.0	22	-1.5	-37.0
55	BYU	Big 12	49.6	48.1	+1.5	+3.2	27	+2.7	-25.5
56	Baylor	Big 12	50.7	49.2	+1.5	+3.4	37	+9.0	+0.0
57	South Alabama	Sun Belt	49.9	48.4	+1.5	+2.2	20	-3.0	-34.3
58	Iowa State	Big 12	50.0	48.8	+1.3	-0.6	24	-0.8	-30.9
59	Charlotte	American Athletic	51.8	50.8	+0.9	+0.9	20	+1.3	-22.6
60	Texas State	Sun Belt	48.3	47.3	+0.9	+2.0	29	+3.6	-30.0
61	SMU	ACC	49.7	48.8	+0.9	+1.1	15	-6.3	-29.3
62	Michigan State	Big Ten	51.2	50.3	+0.9	+1.5	26	+2.4	-21.4
63	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	48.0	47.4	+0.6	+0.6	26	+5.9	-27.1
64	Wisconsin	Big Ten	51.0	50.4	+0.5	-0.4	23	-2.0	-11.8
65	Utah	Big 12	50.9	50.4	+0.5	+0.8	17	-0.9	-23.8
66	Alabama	SEC	47.7	47.3	+0.5	-1.1	17	-1.1	-13.6
67	South Florida	American Athletic	53.3	52.9	+0.4	-0.4	23	-0.6	-14.6
68	Auburn	SEC	51.9	51.6	+0.3	+1.2	26	+3.3	-11.1
69	Purdue	Big Ten	53.1	52.9	+0.1	-2.9	16	-2.3	-34.4
70	Penn State	Big Ten	45.8	45.8	+0.0	+0.5	25	+4.3	-29.6
71	Cincinnati	Big 12	51.5	51.6	-0.1	+1.1	25	+0.3	-18.9
72	New Mexico	Mountain West	49.0	49.2	-0.3	+0.9	25	-2.4	-28.9
73	App State	Sun Belt	51.7	52.2	-0.5	-0.7	31	+11.5	-2.9
74	Boise State	Mountain West	44.8	45.4	-0.5	-1.6	24	+6.4	-30.8
75	Florida	SEC	46.2	46.7	-0.6	-2.4	11	-2.6	-37.1
76	Illinois	Big Ten	47.2	47.9	-0.7	-0.3	19	+1.5	-21.6
77	San Diego State	Mountain West	51.9	52.6	-0.7	-0.3	25	+3.9	-27.1
78	Florida International	Conference USA	48.3	49.2	-0.9	+0.5	28	+5.4	-15.8
79	James Madison	Sun Belt	48.2	49.1	-1.0	-1.5	29	+8.8	-8.1
80	Tulsa	American Athletic	52.8	53.9	-1.1	-2.4	20	+3.5	-25.0
81	Colorado State	Mountain West	45.8	47.0	-1.3	-3.3	25	-0.4	-38.2
82	Florida State	ACC	55.4	56.9	-1.5	-1.4	31	+4.3	-17.0
83	Kansas State	Big 12	47.8	49.3	-1.5	-0.4	27	+6.4	-20.0
84	UConn	FBS Independents	46.7	48.6	-1.9	-1.6	11	-5.6	-44.4
85	East Carolina	American Athletic	47.8	49.7	-1.9	-2.5	20	+1.0	-22.5
86	North Carolina	ACC	48.4	50.6	-2.3	-4.0	28	+3.9	-4.7
87	Stanford	ACC	50.5	52.9	-2.4	+0.0	39	+14.8	-2.2
88	Rutgers	Big Ten	46.6	49.0	-2.4	-2.8	28	+0.6	-18.2
89	Missouri	SEC	46.4	48.9	-2.5	-3.5	14	-3.6	-36.1
90	Tennessee	SEC	44.0	46.6	-2.6	-0.5	17	-3.8	-25.6
91	Georgia Tech	ACC	46.7	49.6	-2.9	-3.6	28	+2.3	-30.6
92	Virginia Tech	ACC	45.4	48.4	-3.0	-2.5	20	+0.8	-12.5
93	Sam Houston	Conference USA	42.5	45.9	-3.4	-4.5	19	-3.6	-35.2
94	Buffalo	Mid-American	45.5	49.1	-3.6	-3.0	23	+0.9	-26.7
95	Mississippi State	SEC	51.0	54.8	-3.7	-3.3	38	+8.7	+9.8
96	Marshall	Sun Belt	41.5	45.4	-3.9	-5.3	15	-6.8	-54.4
97	Arizona State	Big 12	42.9	46.9	-4.0	-3.1	38	+7.7	+0.0
98	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	51.5	55.6	-4.1	-4.1	24	+0.4	-5.7
99	Oklahoma	SEC	47.7	51.8	-4.1	-2.4	24	+1.2	-4.3
100	UTEP	Conference USA	48.3	52.4	-4.1	-2.3	24	+2.5	-11.9
101	Troy	Sun Belt	46.3	50.5	-4.2	-4.2	22	-0.1	-5.6
102	Wyoming	Mountain West	47.3	51.6	-4.3	-5.2	22	-3.8	-22.2
103	Ohio	Mid-American	42.1	46.6	-4.5	-2.9	11	-3.6	-54.0
104	Nevada	Mountain West	47.9	52.4	-4.5	-6.0	32	+6.6	-14.6
105	Texas A&M	SEC	43.3	47.9	-4.6	-3.6	20	-5.4	-44.4
106	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	45.5	50.1	-4.6	-6.0	26	-1.0	-21.9
107	Kansas	Big 12	42.2	47.0	-4.8	-4.6	18	-3.5	-32.3
108	Western Michigan	Mid-American	44.4	49.4	-5.0	-5.6	34	+1.4	-9.4
109	Kent State	Mid-American	51.3	56.4	-5.1	-3.7	19	-0.5	-21.4
110	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	46.1	51.7	-5.6	-5.8	30	+5.8	-8.5
111	Oregon State	Pac-12	46.3	52.2	-5.9	-5.6	41	+15.2	-1.8
112	Kentucky	SEC	45.7	51.7	-6.0	-6.9	25	+0.8	-8.6
113	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	45.8	52.1	-6.3	-6.7	12	-5.6	-48.6
114	Boston College	ACC	43.4	50.0	-6.6	-10.3	38	+8.4	-5.7
115	Vanderbilt	SEC	42.4	49.1	-6.8	-9.2	18	-0.3	-36.1
116	South Carolina	SEC	42.0	49.0	-7.0	-7.0	24	+4.2	-23.5
117	UNLV	Mountain West	39.7	46.8	-7.0	-4.6	19	-4.3	-41.7
118	Tulane	American Athletic	40.5	48.3	-7.8	-7.4	26	+2.6	-10.0
119	West Virginia	Big 12	43.8	52.4	-8.7	-9.4	41	+10.7	-5.8
120	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	44.6	53.4	-8.9	-9.1	26	-2.9	-30.4
121	Houston	Big 12	43.5	52.4	-9.0	-6.9	23	+0.7	-18.6
122	Iowa	Big Ten	37.3	46.5	-9.1	-12.1	7	-13.7	-63.4
123	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	40.5	50.0	-9.5	-9.6	32	+4.9	-21.2
124	New Mexico State	Conference USA	44.9	54.6	-9.7	-13.0	13	-5.2	-38.9
125	Michigan	Big Ten	40.2	50.0	-9.8	-9.8	15	-6.1	-38.1
126	Liberty	Conference USA	37.9	48.6	-10.7	-13.0	26	+1.1	-20.5
127	UCF	Big 12	42.8	53.7	-11.0	-12.6	29	-1.7	-19.5
128	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	36.5	48.4	-11.9	-13.2	23	+2.5	-22.5
129	Central Michigan	Mid-American	42.5	54.4	-11.9	-11.8	22	-3.8	-19.6
130	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	38.6	51.5	-12.8	-13.9	23	+2.1	-14.7
131	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	41.1	55.8	-14.6	-15.9	8	-7.3	-24.4
132	Navy	American Athletic	26.5	46.4	-20.0	-21.1	25	+0.8	-32.4
133	Army	American Athletic	14.9	42.2	-27.3	-26.5	49	+20.4	-7.7
134	Air Force	Mountain West	18.1	49.3	-31.3	-31.8	37	+5.9	-15.4

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.