Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+17.6%

Washington State

Least

−30.9%

Air Force

Spread

48.5%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

133 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.30(r² = 0.09)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±31%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Washington State	Pac-12	67.6	50.0	+17.6	+22.2	28	+4.5	-10.8
2	Washington	Pac-12	61.6	44.3	+17.3	+18.1	22	+5.9	+3.9
3	Hawai'i	Mountain West	67.2	50.8	+16.4	+18.3	22	-0.7	-30.2
4	Fresno State	Mountain West	63.5	47.8	+15.7	+15.2	15	-4.7	-48.8
5	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	65.6	50.2	+15.5	+16.9	22	-1.8	-21.4
6	Colorado	Pac-12	65.8	52.2	+13.6	+14.1	12	-2.5	-30.0
7	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	62.5	50.2	+12.4	+13.3	26	+7.5	-27.8
8	Maryland	Big Ten	59.5	48.3	+11.2	+13.5	20	-1.8	-32.4
9	USC	Pac-12	59.8	48.6	+11.2	+12.0	23	+4.2	-10.3
10	Rice	American Athletic	60.7	49.6	+11.1	+12.7	23	+2.2	-16.7
11	Arizona	Pac-12	57.8	47.5	+10.3	+8.5	16	-1.0	-43.8
12	Temple	American Athletic	62.9	53.0	+9.9	+9.1	41	+11.4	+7.5
13	Colorado State	Mountain West	61.5	51.7	+9.9	+8.6	19	+0.4	-38.1
14	Oklahoma State	Big 12	57.7	47.8	+9.8	+10.6	14	-7.2	-47.8
15	Oregon	Pac-12	56.5	47.1	+9.4	+10.4	31	+11.2	-20.7
16	South Carolina	SEC	59.7	50.5	+9.2	+8.5	23	+1.2	-17.8
17	Memphis	American Athletic	58.3	49.2	+9.1	+9.8	31	+7.3	-18.6
18	Arizona State	Pac-12	58.9	50.2	+8.7	+11.0	34	+9.6	+2.6
19	TCU	Big 12	58.2	50.0	+8.3	+7.1	35	+2.6	-8.1
20	LSU	SEC	54.1	45.9	+8.2	+8.6	22	+0.6	-23.1
21	Akron	Mid-American	58.9	51.2	+7.7	+8.5	19	+2.8	-11.4
22	James Madison	Sun Belt	53.6	46.0	+7.6	+8.9	15	-3.0	-54.8
23	Florida State	ACC	53.2	45.7	+7.6	+7.5	20	+5.3	-28.6
24	Kentucky	SEC	56.1	48.9	+7.2	+6.3	14	-0.8	-13.0
25	Stanford	Pac-12	58.2	51.2	+7.0	+9.4	22	-0.4	-26.3
26	Georgia	SEC	51.0	44.1	+6.9	+7.4	17	-1.8	-43.5
27	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	57.7	51.4	+6.4	+3.6	30	+6.4	-2.3
28	Texas	Big 12	53.0	46.7	+6.3	+7.0	27	+4.4	-15.9
29	Troy	Sun Belt	53.1	47.3	+5.8	+6.0	27	+3.3	-16.0
30	Sam Houston	Conference USA	57.4	52.0	+5.4	+5.5	16	-4.9	-30.6
31	Illinois	Big Ten	55.3	50.0	+5.3	+5.2	26	-2.6	-15.9
32	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	58.1	52.8	+5.3	+7.3	23	+4.3	-5.4
33	North Texas	American Athletic	56.4	51.1	+5.3	+7.6	40	+13.7	+4.4
34	Ohio State	Big Ten	50.5	45.3	+5.3	+4.1	20	-0.4	-41.7
35	North Carolina	ACC	53.4	48.4	+5.1	+7.9	22	+6.8	-14.3
36	Texas Tech	Big 12	53.7	49.0	+4.7	+7.6	34	+11.5	-18.4
37	Clemson	ACC	51.0	46.5	+4.5	+4.6	20	-1.5	-34.0
38	Wisconsin	Big Ten	53.2	48.8	+4.5	+3.7	18	-5.8	-48.3
39	Oklahoma	Big 12	50.9	46.4	+4.5	+4.6	23	+3.1	-34.3
40	Houston	Big 12	57.2	52.8	+4.4	+5.7	26	-1.2	-15.9
41	Texas A&M	SEC	53.4	49.3	+4.1	+2.6	23	-5.8	-26.1
42	Michigan State	Big Ten	57.1	53.1	+4.1	+3.9	18	-3.7	-32.4
43	Florida International	Conference USA	57.2	53.2	+4.0	+6.9	25	+5.2	-15.2
44	Vanderbilt	SEC	57.9	53.9	+3.9	+4.6	27	-0.3	-6.8
45	BYU	Big 12	53.3	50.1	+3.3	+4.6	20	+3.7	-18.9
46	Iowa State	Big 12	53.4	50.2	+3.1	+1.1	15	-6.5	-39.1
47	Northwestern	Big Ten	53.0	49.9	+3.1	+4.6	10	-5.1	-43.2
48	App State	Sun Belt	50.8	47.9	+3.0	+4.2	26	+2.0	-33.3
49	Florida	SEC	53.4	50.6	+2.8	+4.2	24	-0.7	-5.1
50	Pittsburgh	ACC	55.4	52.6	+2.8	+1.0	19	-0.8	-5.3
51	Bowling Green	Mid-American	51.1	48.5	+2.7	+1.8	30	+6.3	-13.2
52	Ohio	Mid-American	49.1	46.5	+2.6	+2.3	17	-1.8	-32.5
53	Penn State	Big Ten	50.4	48.0	+2.5	+2.3	21	-1.6	-33.3
54	Virginia	ACC	52.1	49.7	+2.4	+3.0	19	-2.3	-37.5
55	Baylor	Big 12	55.9	53.5	+2.4	+4.0	38	+11.1	+21.7
56	UTSA	American Athletic	49.6	47.2	+2.4	+3.4	28	+9.0	-7.1
57	California	Pac-12	51.5	49.1	+2.4	+3.1	33	+10.0	-6.4
58	San José State	Mountain West	51.3	49.3	+2.1	+1.6	17	-2.3	-32.0
59	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	51.4	49.4	+2.0	+2.3	27	-0.4	-23.3
60	Utah State	Mountain West	51.2	49.6	+1.6	+2.2	27	+1.2	-19.6
61	Louisville	ACC	48.6	47.0	+1.6	-0.3	22	-5.2	-34.0
62	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	56.0	54.6	+1.4	+3.1	31	+1.6	-2.4
63	UCLA	Pac-12	49.5	48.7	+0.8	-0.6	34	+7.4	+12.2
64	SMU	American Athletic	48.8	48.0	+0.8	-0.9	29	+7.1	-23.5
65	Oregon State	Pac-12	48.5	47.7	+0.8	+0.7	36	+10.8	-8.3
66	Missouri	SEC	46.9	46.2	+0.7	+0.7	16	-3.3	-32.4
67	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	50.9	50.2	+0.7	+1.7	15	-6.2	-28.1
68	Miami	ACC	53.2	52.6	+0.7	-1.1	23	-1.3	-28.9
69	UAB	American Athletic	52.0	51.4	+0.6	+3.0	25	+8.3	-9.1
70	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	50.5	50.2	+0.2	+0.0	16	+1.5	-20.5
71	Marshall	Sun Belt	51.2	51.0	+0.2	+2.5	17	+1.7	-25.6
72	Texas State	Sun Belt	49.3	49.1	+0.2	+0.2	30	+10.6	+5.7
73	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	51.1	51.1	+0.0	-1.5	16	-6.8	-36.6
74	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	47.8	47.9	-0.0	-0.8	20	-2.8	-18.2
75	South Alabama	Sun Belt	52.8	52.9	-0.1	+0.6	25	+3.5	-15.4
76	Kansas State	Big 12	46.6	47.1	-0.5	-1.4	25	+3.5	-36.2
77	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	53.0	53.7	-0.7	-1.2	22	-4.3	-26.7
78	Tennessee	SEC	48.4	49.2	-0.8	-0.2	18	-1.7	-22.2
79	Western Michigan	Mid-American	49.3	50.1	-0.8	+0.7	29	+0.7	-8.0
80	East Carolina	American Athletic	54.6	55.5	-1.0	-2.2	22	-3.0	-20.3
81	Duke	ACC	48.0	49.2	-1.1	-1.8	17	-0.5	-29.7
82	NC State	ACC	47.1	48.4	-1.3	+0.1	13	-3.8	-50.0
83	Louisiana	Sun Belt	47.3	48.7	-1.5	-2.5	22	+2.1	-32.4
84	Georgia State	Sun Belt	45.3	47.1	-1.8	-0.8	16	+3.5	-31.3
85	Iowa	Big Ten	45.1	47.1	-2.0	-3.7	6	-7.6	-51.1
86	Purdue	Big Ten	48.8	50.8	-2.0	-2.1	23	-3.9	-17.3
87	Michigan	Big Ten	44.0	46.1	-2.1	-1.8	23	-0.0	-41.3
88	UConn	FBS Independents	49.0	51.4	-2.3	-3.8	16	-3.3	-44.7
89	New Mexico	Mountain West	49.8	52.3	-2.5	-2.7	14	-1.9	-8.7
90	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	48.7	51.2	-2.5	-2.1	20	-1.9	-21.4
91	Indiana	Big Ten	49.0	51.7	-2.7	-2.5	25	+2.6	-25.0
92	Alabama	SEC	43.2	46.0	-2.8	-3.1	7	-3.4	-40.0
93	South Florida	American Athletic	46.7	49.7	-3.0	-0.4	35	+13.0	-8.9
94	Mississippi State	SEC	49.3	52.4	-3.1	-2.9	22	-1.9	-16.3
95	Virginia Tech	ACC	45.6	48.8	-3.1	-3.0	25	+0.5	-20.8
96	New Mexico State	Conference USA	45.5	48.7	-3.2	-2.8	19	-1.3	-34.7
97	Ole Miss	SEC	44.5	47.7	-3.2	-2.7	33	+13.3	-11.1
98	Tulane	American Athletic	42.3	45.8	-3.5	-3.3	32	+3.3	-7.3
99	San Diego State	Mountain West	45.8	49.7	-3.9	-3.9	21	-0.8	-42.3
100	UNLV	Mountain West	46.1	50.0	-3.9	-5.6	18	-3.9	-33.3
101	Wyoming	Mountain West	45.5	49.5	-4.0	-6.3	9	-11.2	-64.9
102	Toledo	Mid-American	43.0	47.1	-4.0	-4.3	24	+5.2	-32.6
103	Arkansas	SEC	48.5	52.7	-4.1	-4.1	13	-3.7	-40.9
104	UCF	Big 12	44.4	48.8	-4.4	-3.9	29	+6.2	+12.5
105	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	41.9	46.5	-4.5	-4.9	11	-6.3	-46.5
106	Wake Forest	ACC	46.4	51.0	-4.7	-4.9	20	-2.1	-17.1
107	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	45.1	50.0	-4.9	-6.5	20	+0.6	-26.3
108	Buffalo	Mid-American	48.8	53.7	-4.9	-5.4	36	+5.5	+1.8
109	Nevada	Mountain West	46.7	51.8	-5.2	-6.8	18	-1.1	-15.2
110	UTEP	Conference USA	49.0	54.2	-5.2	-6.8	32	-0.3	-10.9
111	Kansas	Big 12	40.6	46.1	-5.5	-6.4	22	+0.4	-28.1
112	Boise State	Mountain West	42.9	48.4	-5.5	-7.3	9	-4.5	-57.1
113	Minnesota	Big Ten	41.0	46.6	-5.6	-5.9	15	-8.7	-55.6
114	Kent State	Mid-American	49.3	55.0	-5.7	-4.9	18	+0.7	-13.5
115	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	46.1	51.9	-5.7	-3.7	22	-0.9	-19.5
116	Central Michigan	Mid-American	46.2	52.1	-5.9	-5.9	21	-2.4	-31.4
117	Cincinnati	Big 12	44.0	50.3	-6.3	-6.1	30	+3.1	-28.9
118	Georgia Tech	ACC	43.9	50.6	-6.7	-6.7	22	+2.1	-19.4
119	Syracuse	ACC	41.5	48.3	-6.9	-6.4	20	+1.9	-17.2
120	Auburn	SEC	43.3	50.8	-7.5	-7.7	20	-2.4	-13.5
121	Boston College	ACC	41.0	48.8	-7.8	-5.5	36	+7.6	-8.9
122	Tulsa	American Athletic	43.2	51.2	-8.0	-11.4	16	-4.5	-30.6
123	Charlotte	American Athletic	46.9	55.1	-8.2	-8.8	28	+4.4	-9.8
124	Utah	Pac-12	39.7	49.0	-9.4	-7.8	23	+0.6	-24.4
125	Liberty	Conference USA	32.7	42.4	-9.7	-9.2	26	+9.2	-20.0
126	Nebraska	Big Ten	39.2	49.1	-10.0	-11.6	14	-0.6	-50.0
127	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	39.0	49.0	-10.0	-12.7	24	+6.4	-35.3
128	Ball State	Mid-American	41.7	51.8	-10.1	-11.4	19	-4.0	-16.3
129	West Virginia	Big 12	37.7	47.8	-10.2	-8.1	32	+6.8	-10.9
130	Rutgers	Big Ten	38.8	49.1	-10.3	-8.3	21	-0.9	-37.7
131	Navy	American Athletic	28.5	49.5	-21.0	-21.4	21	+0.7	-42.3
132	Army	FBS Independents	24.1	48.6	-24.5	-23.0	33	+9.5	-15.2
133	Air Force	Mountain West	15.1	46.0	-30.9	-30.5	26	+1.7	-23.8

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.