Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+23.0%

Mississippi State

Least

−36.9%

Navy

Spread

59.9%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

131 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.21(r² = 0.04)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±37%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Mississippi State	SEC	70.8	47.9	+23.0	+25.3	32	+8.3	-17.0
2	Washington	Pac-12	62.9	44.8	+18.1	+20.9	38	+10.3	-2.2
3	Washington State	Pac-12	64.5	49.5	+15.0	+18.3	33	+10.2	+2.4
4	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	64.0	49.1	+14.9	+19.4	33	+8.1	-5.5
5	Purdue	Big Ten	61.1	47.7	+13.4	+12.5	21	+0.2	-19.2
6	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	63.4	50.1	+13.3	+14.8	26	+1.9	-33.3
7	San José State	Mountain West	61.5	48.2	+13.2	+13.5	19	-5.5	-52.4
8	USC	Pac-12	56.0	43.9	+12.1	+12.4	30	+10.0	+6.1
9	California	Pac-12	63.6	51.7	+11.8	+11.5	21	-0.4	-15.7
10	Temple	American Athletic	63.8	52.4	+11.4	+10.5	30	+6.8	-27.3
11	Charlotte	Conference USA	60.4	49.4	+11.1	+12.2	35	+9.2	-8.3
12	Akron	Mid-American	64.6	53.6	+11.0	+12.8	24	-0.7	-27.5
13	Fresno State	Mountain West	58.6	47.8	+10.8	+11.1	15	-2.9	-42.9
14	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	60.3	49.5	+10.8	+12.2	23	+3.4	-12.2
15	Arizona	Pac-12	59.8	49.5	+10.3	+9.8	29	+5.8	+5.6
16	Houston	American Athletic	59.0	49.2	+9.8	+11.6	28	+2.1	-26.7
17	Bowling Green	Mid-American	58.2	48.5	+9.7	+10.6	20	+2.7	-18.4
18	Boston College	ACC	64.6	55.4	+9.3	+8.5	14	-2.5	-15.8
19	Stanford	Pac-12	59.5	50.3	+9.2	+10.5	16	-1.3	-43.2
20	Wake Forest	ACC	54.7	45.7	+9.0	+9.1	29	+3.6	-20.5
21	Alabama	SEC	57.0	48.6	+8.4	+7.8	16	+0.7	-39.4
22	North Carolina	ACC	55.6	47.3	+8.3	+9.4	34	+11.2	-11.8
23	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	62.5	54.2	+8.2	+8.8	21	-0.8	-16.7
24	Iowa State	Big 12	59.7	51.5	+8.2	+5.9	24	+0.9	-24.5
25	LSU	SEC	53.1	45.3	+7.8	+8.7	23	+4.6	-25.0
26	Texas State	Sun Belt	59.0	51.2	+7.8	+7.8	17	-3.7	-40.0
27	Cincinnati	American Athletic	54.7	47.1	+7.6	+8.2	19	-2.4	-36.5
28	Florida International	Conference USA	60.1	52.7	+7.4	+9.0	29	+4.2	-5.0
29	Texas Tech	Big 12	57.8	50.5	+7.3	+11.3	41	+18.9	+3.1
30	Hawai'i	Mountain West	58.1	50.9	+7.2	+6.2	25	+0.1	-16.3
31	Indiana	Big Ten	62.1	55.1	+7.0	+8.7	21	-1.3	-9.3
32	East Carolina	American Athletic	55.6	48.9	+6.7	+4.9	29	+6.7	-9.5
33	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	58.6	52.1	+6.6	+4.3	19	-1.2	-29.8
34	UTSA	Conference USA	52.5	46.1	+6.4	+7.0	30	+0.7	-29.3
35	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	56.2	50.1	+6.0	+7.3	29	+7.8	-2.6
36	Maryland	Big Ten	54.0	48.0	+6.0	+7.8	23	+0.4	-16.3
37	Ohio State	Big Ten	50.4	44.5	+5.9	+6.0	19	-3.6	-50.0
38	NC State	ACC	56.3	50.6	+5.8	+6.2	15	-3.5	-32.6
39	Michigan State	Big Ten	55.6	49.9	+5.7	+5.3	35	+11.1	+4.3
40	Virginia	ACC	56.0	50.5	+5.5	+5.8	19	-5.8	-40.9
41	Georgia	SEC	49.1	43.6	+5.5	+4.7	19	-1.8	-37.8
42	South Carolina	SEC	54.4	49.1	+5.3	+5.1	20	+5.1	-35.6
43	Oklahoma State	Big 12	54.0	48.8	+5.2	+6.6	9	-6.4	-52.2
44	Miami	ACC	55.4	50.3	+5.1	+6.3	25	-1.6	-34.0
45	Memphis	American Athletic	53.2	48.2	+5.1	+6.1	22	+2.5	-39.0
46	Arizona State	Pac-12	56.2	51.5	+4.7	+3.6	24	+0.3	-12.5
47	Ohio	Mid-American	50.9	46.4	+4.5	+5.8	12	-9.2	-50.0
48	Ball State	Mid-American	55.8	51.4	+4.4	+1.8	18	-3.8	-36.2
49	SMU	American Athletic	52.2	47.9	+4.2	+4.5	39	+10.2	-14.0
50	Tennessee	SEC	50.5	46.4	+4.1	+5.3	42	+9.7	+5.3
51	UNLV	Mountain West	53.2	49.3	+3.9	+6.9	19	+1.8	-24.3
52	Louisiana	Sun Belt	52.7	49.5	+3.2	+4.8	27	+2.6	-24.0
53	Tulsa	American Athletic	53.2	50.4	+2.9	+1.2	20	-2.9	-13.2
54	Troy	Sun Belt	49.6	46.8	+2.8	+1.5	23	+6.5	-19.1
55	Iowa	Big Ten	51.8	49.4	+2.5	+0.8	14	-2.7	-39.0
56	Texas	Big 12	50.7	48.3	+2.4	+2.4	22	+2.9	-18.8
57	Texas A&M	SEC	54.4	51.9	+2.4	+1.9	13	-7.9	-26.3
58	UCLA	Pac-12	48.4	46.1	+2.3	+2.2	37	+15.4	+0.0
59	Syracuse	ACC	53.0	50.7	+2.3	+4.3	14	-2.5	-13.9
60	TCU	Big 12	48.9	46.7	+2.2	+0.8	21	+3.3	-7.3
61	Penn State	Big Ten	49.4	47.2	+2.1	+2.6	27	+2.8	-28.0
62	Liberty	FBS Independents	49.7	47.8	+1.8	+4.5	22	+3.3	-30.2
63	Clemson	ACC	48.4	46.6	+1.8	+1.4	12	-2.4	-41.5
64	South Alabama	Sun Belt	48.8	47.0	+1.8	+3.3	28	+11.5	-19.5
65	Buffalo	Mid-American	50.9	49.4	+1.5	+1.8	30	+3.3	-11.3
66	Colorado State	Mountain West	54.8	53.4	+1.3	+0.7	24	+3.4	-5.3
67	BYU	FBS Independents	49.0	47.9	+1.2	+4.5	33	+11.4	-23.1
68	Oregon	Pac-12	47.6	46.4	+1.2	+3.2	44	+19.1	-5.4
69	Nebraska	Big Ten	50.9	49.7	+1.1	-0.5	6	-6.1	-53.3
70	Rice	Conference USA	50.2	49.3	+1.0	+1.2	30	+4.2	-11.8
71	Virginia Tech	ACC	51.2	50.4	+0.8	+1.6	10	-6.6	-34.9
72	West Virginia	Big 12	51.2	50.5	+0.7	+1.3	28	+7.8	-5.3
73	Florida State	ACC	50.1	49.6	+0.4	+0.7	30	+5.3	+0.0
74	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	45.5	45.2	+0.4	+0.3	27	+2.9	-5.3
75	Duke	ACC	48.8	48.8	+0.1	+3.0	29	+5.2	-14.9
76	Missouri	SEC	49.0	49.4	-0.4	-1.0	18	-1.5	-38.6
77	Georgia Tech	ACC	52.2	52.7	-0.5	+0.1	14	-1.2	-44.4
78	Oklahoma	Big 12	46.6	47.1	-0.6	+0.0	22	+3.2	-33.3
79	Utah	Pac-12	48.4	49.1	-0.7	+0.4	36	+8.3	-14.3
80	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	51.7	52.4	-0.7	+0.8	15	-4.0	-35.5
81	Nevada	Mountain West	53.0	53.7	-0.7	-1.0	17	-4.9	-16.3
82	North Texas	Conference USA	47.9	48.6	-0.8	-1.2	22	-1.8	-26.7
83	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	44.7	45.6	-0.9	-0.7	27	+5.1	-10.3
84	UCF	American Athletic	46.7	47.5	-0.9	-1.8	31	+1.9	-19.2
85	Illinois	Big Ten	45.2	46.3	-1.1	-2.2	21	+2.5	-37.5
86	Central Michigan	Mid-American	51.1	52.3	-1.2	-3.6	33	+3.3	-14.3
87	San Diego State	Mountain West	48.2	49.5	-1.3	-1.1	16	-4.5	-39.2
88	Kentucky	SEC	47.6	49.0	-1.3	-3.3	25	-1.1	-17.0
89	Colorado	Pac-12	51.7	53.0	-1.4	-0.5	21	-1.6	-28.9
90	UTEP	Conference USA	49.0	50.8	-1.8	-2.4	30	+1.8	-7.5
91	Toledo	Mid-American	45.7	47.5	-1.8	-0.7	25	+4.1	-9.3
92	Kansas	Big 12	48.0	50.0	-1.9	-2.6	24	-3.1	-15.6
93	James Madison	Sun Belt	46.0	48.1	-2.1	-2.4	23	+0.3	-16.7
94	Pittsburgh	ACC	45.8	47.9	-2.1	-2.1	14	-1.2	-43.6
95	Tulane	American Athletic	44.5	46.8	-2.2	+0.2	27	+6.6	-26.1
96	Kansas State	Big 12	44.3	46.7	-2.5	-2.8	26	+4.2	-24.5
97	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	46.4	49.1	-2.7	-4.9	20	-1.6	-28.6
98	Boise State	Mountain West	43.7	46.7	-3.0	-5.5	13	-2.9	-47.5
99	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	41.9	45.6	-3.7	-5.8	18	-1.1	-55.1
100	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	46.7	50.5	-3.7	-3.4	11	-4.1	-65.0
101	Baylor	Big 12	44.7	48.6	-3.9	-1.2	43	+17.9	-17.0
102	Michigan	Big Ten	41.0	44.9	-3.9	-2.8	21	-2.5	-36.2
103	Northwestern	Big Ten	48.6	52.7	-4.0	-2.8	28	+4.8	-8.1
104	Rutgers	Big Ten	47.7	51.8	-4.1	-6.4	14	-2.3	-35.7
105	App State	Sun Belt	45.5	49.7	-4.2	-4.0	42	+5.4	-12.0
106	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	46.1	50.8	-4.7	-4.7	17	-0.7	-28.3
107	Louisville	ACC	43.9	49.1	-5.1	-3.9	25	+3.8	-28.8
108	Western Michigan	Mid-American	47.6	52.8	-5.2	-3.4	22	-1.0	-26.4
109	Utah State	Mountain West	45.0	50.2	-5.2	-5.7	25	+0.7	-28.1
110	Marshall	Sun Belt	42.0	47.6	-5.6	-2.0	15	-1.1	-47.7
111	Vanderbilt	SEC	43.1	49.1	-6.0	-6.5	30	+11.2	+0.0
112	Oregon State	Pac-12	40.4	46.6	-6.2	-5.1	27	+5.5	-20.0
113	Kent State	Mid-American	46.0	52.2	-6.2	-4.3	24	+3.1	-5.6
114	Florida	SEC	45.8	52.5	-6.8	-4.8	34	+9.6	+12.2
115	Wyoming	Mountain West	41.4	48.7	-7.2	-8.6	4	-11.4	-65.2
116	Wisconsin	Big Ten	41.7	49.1	-7.3	-10.7	12	-2.9	-55.9
117	Ole Miss	SEC	39.6	47.0	-7.4	-5.9	35	+12.6	-5.0
118	New Mexico State	FBS Independents	43.2	51.1	-7.9	-8.6	15	-3.2	-25.9
119	Arkansas	SEC	39.7	48.0	-8.3	-10.3	20	-0.6	-17.1
120	UAB	Conference USA	39.3	48.0	-8.7	-8.8	32	+9.3	-12.5
121	South Florida	American Athletic	43.5	52.7	-9.2	-9.0	35	+8.3	-8.1
122	Minnesota	Big Ten	36.8	46.0	-9.2	-7.7	9	-7.9	-50.0
123	Auburn	SEC	42.0	52.6	-10.6	-11.4	20	+0.7	-15.2
124	New Mexico	Mountain West	44.0	55.6	-11.6	-10.9	10	-9.3	-35.4
125	UConn	FBS Independents	38.2	49.9	-11.7	-15.2	14	-0.3	-28.1
126	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	40.0	51.7	-11.7	-13.8	23	+4.2	-17.1
127	Georgia State	Sun Belt	37.5	50.3	-12.8	-13.5	26	+2.4	-13.2
128	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	38.4	55.0	-16.6	-17.3	21	-2.7	-18.0
129	Army	FBS Independents	16.1	47.1	-31.0	-30.1	37	+7.7	-11.1
130	Air Force	Mountain West	12.7	44.6	-31.9	-31.8	24	-4.0	-36.5
131	Navy	American Athletic	16.3	53.2	-36.9	-34.2	32	+1.9	-21.0

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.