Upsets

AnalysisAll analysis →

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013

#	Result	Season	Dog by	Miss	Win prob	Poll gap
1	Wake Forest over Duke 59–7 · on the road · 2018-11-24	2018	+9.5	+61.5	28%	—
2	Liberty over Old Dominion 52–10 · at home · 2018-09-01	2018	+5.2	+47.2	37%	—
3	New Mexico over UNLV 50–14 · on the road · 2018-10-06	2018	+8	+44.0	31%	—
4	Old Dominion over #13Virginia Tech 49–35 · at home · 2018-09-22	2018	+28.5	+42.5	4%	17
5	Purdue over #2Ohio State 49–20 · at home · 2018-10-20	2018	+12.5	+41.5	22%	28
6	Minnesota over Purdue 41–10 · at home · 2018-11-10	2018	+10	+41.0	27%	—
7	Texas Tech over #15Oklahoma State 41–17 · on the road · 2018-09-22	2018	+14.5	+38.5	18%	15
8	East Carolina over North Carolina 41–19 · at home · 2018-09-08	2018	+15.5	+37.5	17%	—
9	UCLA over California 37–7 · on the road · 2018-10-13	2018	+7	+37.0	33%	—
10	Florida Atlantic over Florida International 49–14 · on the road · 2018-11-03	2018	+2	+37.0	45%	—
11	Temple over Maryland 35–14 · on the road · 2018-09-15	2018	+15.8	+36.8	16%	—
12	Arizona over #19Oregon 44–15 · at home · 2018-10-28	2018	+7.8	+36.8	31%	11
13	Charlotte over Western Kentucky 40–14 · at home · 2018-10-13	2018	+9.5	+35.5	28%	—
14	#4Wisconsin over #8Miami 35–3 · neutral site · 2018-12-27	2018	+2.5	+34.5	44%	—
15	Minnesota over Wisconsin 37–15 · on the road · 2018-11-24	2018	+12	+34.0	23%	—
16	#2Clemson over #1Alabama 44–16 · neutral site · 2019-01-08	2018	+5.5	+33.5	37%	1
17	North Texas over Arkansas 44–17 · on the road · 2018-09-15	2018	+5.5	+32.5	37%	—
18	Illinois over Minnesota 55–31 · at home · 2018-11-03	2018	+8.5	+32.5	30%	—
19	Duke over Temple 56–27 · neutral site · 2018-12-27	2018	+3.5	+32.5	41%	—
20	Virginia over South Carolina 28–0 · neutral site · 2018-12-29	2018	+4.5	+32.5	39%	—
21	Coastal Carolina over UAB 47–24 · at home · 2018-09-08	2018	+9	+32.0	29%	—
22	Tulane over South Florida 41–15 · on the road · 2018-11-03	2018	+6	+32.0	35%	—
23	UL Monroe over Coastal Carolina 45–20 · on the road · 2018-10-13	2018	+6.8	+31.8	34%	—
24	Hawai'i over Navy 59–41 · at home · 2018-09-02	2018	+13.5	+31.5	20%	—
25	Toledo over Western Michigan 51–24 · on the road · 2018-10-25	2018	+4.5	+31.5	39%	—
26	#7Florida over #14Michigan 41–15 · neutral site · 2018-12-29	2018	+5.2	+31.2	37%	—
27	Kentucky over #14Mississippi State 28–7 · at home · 2018-09-22	2018	+10	+31.0	27%	16
28	Georgia Southern over #25App State 34–14 · at home · 2018-10-25	2018	+10.8	+30.8	25%	5
29	Air Force over Navy 35–7 · at home · 2018-10-06	2018	+2.5	+30.5	44%	—
30	Oregon State over Colorado 41–34 · on the road · 2018-10-27	2018	+23.5	+30.5	7%	—
31	Tulane over Memphis 40–24 · at home · 2018-09-29	2018	+14.2	+30.2	19%	—
32	Minnesota over Georgia Tech 34–10 · neutral site · 2018-12-26	2018	+5.8	+29.8	36%	—
33	Miami (OH) over Akron 41–17 · on the road · 2018-10-06	2018	+5	+29.0	38%	—
34	UAB over Louisiana Tech 28–7 · on the road · 2018-10-06	2018	+7.2	+28.2	33%	—
35	#20Virginia Tech over #19Florida State 24–3 · on the road · 2018-09-04	2018	+7	+28.0	33%	1
36	Kansas State over Oklahoma State 31–12 · at home · 2018-10-13	2018	+9	+28.0	29%	—
37	SMU over #17Houston 45–31 · at home · 2018-11-03	2018	+14	+28.0	19%	13
38	#10Ohio State over #4Michigan 62–39 · at home · 2018-11-24	2018	+4.2	+27.2	40%	6
39	#13LSU over #2Georgia 36–16 · at home · 2018-10-13	2018	+7	+27.0	33%	11
40	Missouri over #13Florida 38–17 · on the road · 2018-11-03	2018	+6	+27.0	35%	17
41	Middle Tennessee over UAB 27–3 · at home · 2018-11-24	2018	+3	+27.0	43%	—
42	UNLV over San Diego State 27–24 · on the road · 2018-11-11	2018	+23.8	+26.8	7%	—
43	Syracuse over Florida State 30–7 · at home · 2018-09-15	2018	+3.5	+26.5	41%	—
44	Marshall over Florida Atlantic 31–7 · at home · 2018-10-20	2018	+2.5	+26.5	44%	—
45	Hawai'i over Colorado State 43–34 · on the road · 2018-08-25	2018	+17.2	+26.2	14%	—
46	BYU over #6Wisconsin 24–21 · on the road · 2018-09-15	2018	+23.2	+26.2	7%	24
47	Akron over Northwestern 39–34 · on the road · 2018-09-15	2018	+21	+26.0	9%	—
48	UL Monroe over Georgia Southern 44–25 · at home · 2018-11-03	2018	+7	+26.0	33%	—
49	#19Syracuse over Boston College 42–21 · on the road · 2018-11-24	2018	+4.8	+25.8	38%	—
50	Western Kentucky over Louisiana Tech 30–15 · on the road · 2018-11-24	2018	+10.8	+25.8	25%	—
51	#24Oklahoma State over #17Boise State 44–21 · at home · 2018-09-15	2018	+2	+25.0	45%	7
52	Kentucky over #25Florida 27–16 · on the road · 2018-09-08	2018	+13.5	+24.5	20%	5
53	Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech 49–28 · on the road · 2018-10-25	2018	+3	+24.0	43%	—
54	Wake Forest over Louisville 56–35 · on the road · 2018-10-27	2018	+2.8	+23.8	43%	—
55	Purdue over #23Boston College 30–13 · at home · 2018-09-22	2018	+6.5	+23.5	34%	7
56	Virginia Tech over #22Duke 31–14 · on the road · 2018-09-29	2018	+6.5	+23.5	34%	8
57	Wake Forest over #22NC State 27–23 · on the road · 2018-11-09	2018	+19.2	+23.2	11%	8
58	Utah over #14Stanford 40–21 · on the road · 2018-10-07	2018	+4	+23.0	40%	16
59	Tennessee over #12Kentucky 24–7 · at home · 2018-11-10	2018	+5	+22.0	38%	18
60	Rice over Old Dominion 27–13 · at home · 2018-11-24	2018	+7.8	+21.8	31%	—

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.