Houston vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsSMU
- Q4 2:43SMUKe'Mon Freeman 8 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)31–45
- Q4 9:34HOUD'Eriq King 3 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)31–38
- Q4 12:50HOUKeith Corbin 1 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)24–38
- Q3 1:39SMUReggie Roberson Jr. 59 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)17–38
- Q3 2:48HOUDalton Witherspoon 27 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q2 0:06SMUJames Proche 1 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)14–31
- Q2 4:08SMUKe'Mon Freeman 6 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)14–24
- Q2 12:00HOUGleson Sprewell 24 Yd Fumble Return (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)14–17
- Q2 12:54HOUMarquez Stevenson 50 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:35SMUTyler Page 17 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:03SMURyan Becker 7 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:45SMUKevin Robledo 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassD'Eriq King 11/22, 175 YDS, 2 TD
- RushPatrick Carr 17 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecMarquez Stevenson 3 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBen Hicks 28/43, 318 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKe'Mon Freeman 20 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- RecReggie Roberson Jr. 9 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:54SMU +31%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Houst 8
- Q2 4:08SMU +26%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
- Q4 9:34HOU +22%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q1 4:03SMU +20%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ryan Becker for 7 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
- Q2 0:06SMU +20%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 1 yd for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
- Q2 12:00HOU +20%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 1 yd for a TD Xavier Jones fumbled, recovered by Houst Gleson Sprewell, return for 24 yds (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. SMU?
Houston 31, SMU 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total yards | 514 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 190 | Rushing yards | 196 |
| 15 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 9-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 28/44 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 2-19 |
| 25:47 | Possession | 34:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 HOU go for it on 4th & 5 at SMU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:43SMUKe'Mon Freeman 8 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)31–45
- Q4 9:34HOUD'Eriq King 3 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)31–38
- Q4 12:50HOUKeith Corbin 1 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)24–38
- Q3 1:39SMUReggie Roberson Jr. 59 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)17–38
- Q3 2:48HOUDalton Witherspoon 27 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q2 0:06SMUJames Proche 1 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)14–31
- Q2 4:08SMUKe'Mon Freeman 6 Yd Run (Kevin Robledo Kick)14–24
- Q2 12:00HOUGleson Sprewell 24 Yd Fumble Return (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)14–17
- Q2 12:54HOUMarquez Stevenson 50 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:35SMUTyler Page 17 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:03SMURyan Becker 7 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Kevin Robledo Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:45SMUKevin Robledo 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1292, HOU Elo 1686 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU +13.4 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #18 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #26 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Houston leads 22–14–1 · 27% have been one-possession games
| HOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.3 (#61) | CORE overall | -11.5 (#100) |
| +8 / +8 | offense / defense | -10 / +2 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.69 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →