Oregon vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsARIZ
- Q4 3:32ARIZJ.J. Taylor 19 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)15–44
- Q4 9:17OREBrenden Schooler 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Adam Stack Kick)15–37
- Q3 2:49ARIZShun Brown 27 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)8–37
- Q3 10:30ARIZShawn Poindexter 8 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)8–30
- Q2 1:39ARIZJ.J. Taylor 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)8–23
- Q2 9:17OREDillon Mitchell 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–16
- Q2 11:30ARIZJosh Pollack 23 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 12:43ARIZJosh Pollack 32 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 4:52ARIZJosh Pollack 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:08ARIZShawn Poindexter 22 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.9
- ARIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJustin Herbert 24/48, 186 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJustin Herbert 6 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecDillon Mitchell 6 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKhalil Tate 19/33, 189 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJ.J. Taylor 30 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- RecShun Brown 10 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:17ORE +20%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 29 yds for a TD, (J. Herbert Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q2 1:39ARIZ +19%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
- Q1 11:08ARIZ +18%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 22 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
- Q1 4:52ARIZ +10%
Josh Pollack 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 11:30ARIZ +10%
Josh Pollack 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 12:43ARIZ +9%
Josh Pollack 32 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Arizona?
Oregon 15, Arizona 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORE | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 270 | Total yards | 465 |
| 186 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 276 |
| 18 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/48 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-53 | Penalties | 11-106 |
| 23:51 | Possession | 36:09 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:11 ORE punt on 4th & 1 at ORE 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:32ARIZJ.J. Taylor 19 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)15–44
- Q4 9:17OREBrenden Schooler 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Adam Stack Kick)15–37
- Q3 2:49ARIZShun Brown 27 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)8–37
- Q3 10:30ARIZShawn Poindexter 8 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)8–30
- Q2 1:39ARIZJ.J. Taylor 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)8–23
- Q2 9:17OREDillon Mitchell 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–16
- Q2 11:30ARIZJosh Pollack 23 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 12:43ARIZJosh Pollack 32 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 4:52ARIZJosh Pollack 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:08ARIZShawn Poindexter 22 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1418, ORE Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +6.8 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #54 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #31 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Oregon leads 29–17 · Oregon has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
| ORE | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.9 (#60) | CORE overall | -0.5 (#68) |
| +1 / +0 | offense / defense | +1 / +1 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →