Florida State vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsSYR
- Q4 3:19SYRDontae Strickland 13 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–30
- Q4 6:16FSUDeondre Francois 2 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)7–23
- Q4 12:55SYRAndre Szmyt 23 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q3 3:33SYRRavian Pierce 3 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–20
- Q3 6:55SYRTommy DeVito 3 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–13
- Q2 1:40SYRAndre Szmyt 19 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:23SYRAndre Szmyt 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDeondre Francois 18/36, 178 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCam Akers 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecKeith Gavin 6 REC, 79 YDS
- PassTommy DeVito 11/16, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMoe Neal 19 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecJamal Custis 4 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSYR up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:55SYR +21%
Tommy DeVito 3 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)
- Q3 3:33SYR +13%
Ravian Pierce 3 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)
- Q2 1:40SYR +11%
Andre Szmyt 19 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 7:00SYR +9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Jamal Custis
- Q1 7:23SYR +8%
Andre Szmyt 22 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 12:25SYR +7%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Syracuse?
Florida State 7, Syracuse 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FSU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 441 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 11 | First downs | 25 |
| 1-14 | 3rd down | 8-20 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/37 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-90 | Penalties | 8-33 |
| 23:07 | Possession | 36:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:40 SYR field goal on 4th & 1 at FSU 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:19SYRDontae Strickland 13 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–30
- Q4 6:16FSUDeondre Francois 2 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)7–23
- Q4 12:55SYRAndre Szmyt 23 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q3 3:33SYRRavian Pierce 3 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–20
- Q3 6:55SYRTommy DeVito 3 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–13
- Q2 1:40SYRAndre Szmyt 19 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:23SYRAndre Szmyt 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1392, FSU Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR +6.1 (35% to win) — 2.6 points clear of FSU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #90 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Florida State leads 14–2 · Florida State has won 4 straight · 19% have been one-possession games
| FSU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.1 (#51) | CORE overall | +5.0 (#44) |
| -5 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / -6 |
| 1.40 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →