Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsWIS
- Q4 1:12WISDanny Davis III 13 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Alex Hornibrook Pass to Adam Krumholz for Two-Point Conversion)37–15
- Q4 2:31MINNBryce Williams 16 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)37–7
- Q4 4:56MINNBryce Williams 23 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)30–7
- Q3 1:02MINNEmmit Carpenter 42 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q3 7:47MINNEmmit Carpenter 23 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:01WISJake Ferguson 7 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)17–7
- Q2 1:05MINNDemetrius Douglas 69 Yd Punt Return (Emmit Carpenter Kick)17–0
- Q2 2:21MINNMohamed Ibrahim 10 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)10–0
- Q1 2:37MINNEmmit Carpenter 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassTanner Morgan 9/16, 124 YDS
- RushMohamed Ibrahim 26 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Johnson 4 REC, 76 YDS
- PassAlex Hornibrook 22/33, 189 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJonathan Taylor 19 CAR, 120 YDS
- RecDanny Davis 10 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:21MINN +27%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 1:05MINN +22%
Connor Allen punt for 42 yds, Demetrius Douglas returns for 69 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 0:01WIS +21%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q3 1:02MINN +18%
Emmit Carpenter 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:47MINN +14%
Emmit Carpenter 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:48MINN +9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 48
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Wisconsin?
Minnesota 37, Wisconsin 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MINN | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total yards | 359 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 201 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 6-54 |
| 35:06 | Possession | 24:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 WIS punt on 4th & 8 at MINN 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:12WISDanny Davis III 13 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Alex Hornibrook Pass to Adam Krumholz for Two-Point Conversion)37–15
- Q4 2:31MINNBryce Williams 16 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)37–7
- Q4 4:56MINNBryce Williams 23 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)30–7
- Q3 1:02MINNEmmit Carpenter 42 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q3 7:47MINNEmmit Carpenter 23 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:01WISJake Ferguson 7 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)17–7
- Q2 1:05MINNDemetrius Douglas 69 Yd Punt Return (Emmit Carpenter Kick)17–0
- Q2 2:21MINNMohamed Ibrahim 10 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)10–0
- Q1 2:37MINNEmmit Carpenter 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1738, MINN Elo 1486 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -12.5 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #31 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Wisconsin leads 63–62–8 · Minnesota has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| MINN | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3 (#66) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#18) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +11 / -4 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 2.15 | allowed / drive | 1.87 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →