Syracuse vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SYRTeam statsBC
- Q4 9:07SYRTaj Harris 2 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)42–21
- Q3 4:52SYRJamal Custis 22 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)35–21
- Q3 13:26BCBen Glines 29 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)28–21
- Q2 1:30SYREric Dungey 18 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)28–14
- Q2 2:54BCJeff Smith 69 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:40SYREric Dungey 2 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:46SYREric Dungey 4 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:03SYRSean Riley 75 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:14BCJake Burt 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassEric Dungey 21/34, 362 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDontae Strickland 20 CAR, 129 YDS
- RecSean Riley 5 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Brown Jr. 17/37, 251 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushAJ Dillon 12 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecJeff Smith 1 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSYR up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:26BC +26%
Ben Glines 29 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
- Q3 4:52SYR +22%
Jamal Custis 22 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)
- Q2 2:54BC +21%
Jeff Smith 69 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
- Q2 1:30SYR +21%
Eric Dungey 18 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)
- Q2 12:40SYR +20%
Eric Dungey 2 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)
- Q1 0:46SYR +20%
Eric Dungey 4 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. Boston College?
Syracuse 42, Boston College 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SYR | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 559 | Total yards | 356 |
| 362 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 197 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 28 | First downs | 18 |
| 11-22 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/35 | Comp/Att | 17/37 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 37:19 | Possession | 22:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:12 BC go for it on 4th & 7 at SYR 16. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.77 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:07SYRTaj Harris 2 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)42–21
- Q3 4:52SYRJamal Custis 22 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)35–21
- Q3 13:26BCBen Glines 29 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)28–21
- Q2 1:30SYREric Dungey 18 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)28–14
- Q2 2:54BCJeff Smith 69 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:40SYREric Dungey 2 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:46SYREric Dungey 4 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:03SYRSean Riley 75 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:14BCJake Burt 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1709, SYR Elo 1553 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC -8.6 (73% to win) — 3.6 points clear of BC's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #81 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Syracuse leads 34–25 · Boston College has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| SYR | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.0 (#44) | CORE overall | +3.1 (#50) |
| -1 / -6 | offense / defense | -4 / -7 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 1.68 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →