App State vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsGASO
- Q4 0:10APPMalik Williams 4 Yd pass from Jacob Huesman (Chandler Staton Kick)14–34
- Q4 3:28GASOWesley Fields 18 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–34
- Q3 1:34GASOTyler Bass 43 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q3 10:05GASOShai Werts 47 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–24
- Q2 4:45GASOTyler Bass 42 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 9:53GASOWesley Fields 10 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:11APPMarcus Williams Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:37GASODarion Anderson 57 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- APP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.2
- GASO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassPeyton Derrick 3/12, 73 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDarrynton Evans 16 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecCorey Sutton 4 REC, 64 YDS
- PassShai Werts 1/3, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShai Werts 14 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDarion Anderson 1 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:37GASO +21%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 57 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q2 9:53GASO +21%
Wesley Fields run for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q2 12:11APP +19%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
- Q3 10:05GASO +18%
Shai Werts run for 47 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q2 4:45GASO +11%
Tyler Bass 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 2:00GASO +9%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Georgia Southern?
App State 14, Georgia Southern 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 334 |
| 139 | Passing yards | 57 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 277 |
| 14 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 12/27 | Comp/Att | 1/3 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 19.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-91 | Penalties | 2-11 |
| 27:16 | Possession | 32:44 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:20 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at GASO 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:10APPMalik Williams 4 Yd pass from Jacob Huesman (Chandler Staton Kick)14–34
- Q4 3:28GASOWesley Fields 18 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–34
- Q3 1:34GASOTyler Bass 43 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q3 10:05GASOShai Werts 47 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–24
- Q2 4:45GASOTyler Bass 42 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 9:53GASOWesley Fields 10 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:11APPMarcus Williams Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:37GASODarion Anderson 57 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1448, APP Elo 1784 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +11 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #35 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #59 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →App State leads 14–10 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.8 (#24) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#63) |
| -3 / -16 | offense / defense | +0 / +0 |
| 2.69 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 1.22 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -30 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →