North Carolina vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsECU
- Q4 5:33ECUJake Verity 25 Yd Field Goal 19–41
- Q4 11:28ECUJake Verity 44 Yd Field Goal 19–38
- Q4 14:23ECUHolton Ahlers 21 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)19–35
- Q3 10:19ECUDarius Pinnix 48 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)19–28
- Q2 0:00UNCFreeman Jones 42 Yd Field Goal 19–21
- Q2 1:15ECUTrevon Brown 22 Yd pass from Reid Herring (Jake Verity Kick)16–21
- Q2 2:59UNCFreeman Jones 49 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q2 6:08ECUHolton Ahlers 1 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)13–14
- Q2 13:18UNCJordon Brown 12 Yd Run (Freeman Jones Kick)13–7
- Q1 2:11UNCFreeman Jones 44 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 9:21ECUAnthony Scott 6 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:04UNCFreeman Jones 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassNathan Elliott 22/38, 219 YDS
- RushAntonio Williams 6 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecAnthony Ratliff-Williams 4 REC, 84 YDS
- PassReid Herring 19/32, 290 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAnthony Scott 17 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrevon Brown 4 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:19ECU +25%
Darius Pinnix run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q2 1:15ECU +24%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 22 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q2 6:08ECU +20%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q2 13:18UNC +19%
Jordon Brown run for 12 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
- Q1 9:21ECU +18%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q4 14:23ECU +16%
Holton Ahlers run for 21 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. East Carolina?
North Carolina 19, East Carolina 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 395 | Total yards | 510 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 290 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 19 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 11-19 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 25/44 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 24:56 | Possession | 35:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:49 UNC punt on 4th & 20 at ECU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:33ECUJake Verity 25 Yd Field Goal 19–41
- Q4 11:28ECUJake Verity 44 Yd Field Goal 19–38
- Q4 14:23ECUHolton Ahlers 21 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)19–35
- Q3 10:19ECUDarius Pinnix 48 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)19–28
- Q2 0:00UNCFreeman Jones 42 Yd Field Goal 19–21
- Q2 1:15ECUTrevon Brown 22 Yd pass from Reid Herring (Jake Verity Kick)16–21
- Q2 2:59UNCFreeman Jones 49 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q2 6:08ECUHolton Ahlers 1 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)13–14
- Q2 13:18UNCJordon Brown 12 Yd Run (Freeman Jones Kick)13–7
- Q1 2:11UNCFreeman Jones 44 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 9:21ECUAnthony Scott 6 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:04UNCFreeman Jones 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1249, UNC Elo 1457 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +5.9 (36% to win) — 10.1 points clear of ECU's market line of +16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #11 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →North Carolina leads 12–5–1 · East Carolina has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| UNC | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 (#95) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#104) |
| -1 / +6 | offense / defense | -12 / +0 |
| 1.76 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →