Virginia Tech vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsFSU
- Q4 5:11VTEric Kumah 49 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Brian Johnson Kick)24–3
- Q2 3:57VTEric Kumah 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brian Johnson Kick)17–3
- Q2 7:26FSURicky Aguayo 22 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 7:52VTBrian Johnson 29 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 10:34VTDamon Hazelton 10 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Brian Johnson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 25% success rate
- PassJosh Jackson 16/26, 207 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDeshawn McClease 13 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecEric Kumah 4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDeondre Francois 22/35, 233 YDS, 3 INT
- RushCam Akers 14 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecKeith Gavin 3 REC, 54 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:34VT +17%
Damon Hazelton 10 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Brian Johnson Kick)
- Q2 3:57VT +16%
Eric Kumah 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brian Johnson Kick)
- Q2 7:26FSU +7%
Ricky Aguayo 22 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 7:52VT +7%
Brian Johnson 29 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Florida State?
Virginia Tech 24, Florida State 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VT) was correct.
| VT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 327 |
| 207 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 15 | First downs | 12 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/26 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 7-36 |
| 33:52 | Possession | 26:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:18 VT punt on 4th & 1 at VT 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:11VTEric Kumah 49 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Brian Johnson Kick)24–3
- Q2 3:57VTEric Kumah 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brian Johnson Kick)17–3
- Q2 7:26FSURicky Aguayo 22 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 7:52VTBrian Johnson 29 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 10:34VTDamon Hazelton 10 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Brian Johnson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1648, VT Elo 1731 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU +0.9 (49% to win) — 7.9 points clear of VT's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #61 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #64 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Florida State leads 25–13–1 · Florida State has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| VT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#84) | CORE overall | +3.1 (#51) |
| +3 / +6 | offense / defense | -5 / -8 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 1.40 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →