Miami (OH) vs. Akron: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsAKR
- Q4 6:34M-OHJordan Rigg 0 Yd Fumble Return (Samuel Sloman Kick)41–17
- Q4 10:53M-OHSamuel Sloman 36 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q4 13:25M-OHKenny Young 74 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)31–17
- Q3 3:14M-OHSamuel Sloman 27 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q3 8:53M-OHKenny Young 3 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)21–17
- Q3 11:06AKRUlysees Gilbert III 46 Yd Fumble Return (Nick Gasser Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:47AKRNick Gasser 40 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 1:44AKRNate Stewart 17 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)14–7
- Q2 4:57M-OHKenny Young 7 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Samuel Sloman Kick)14–0
- Q2 10:00M-OHAlonzo Smith 3 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGus Ragland 24/33, 214 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKenny Young 3 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDominique Robinson 5 REC, 77 YDS
- PassKato Nelson 19/35, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushKato Nelson 14 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecAndre Williams 7 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:53M-OH +27%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
- Q3 11:06AKR +27%
Nick Gasser punt for 40 yds, Joshua Allen returns for 2 yds for a TD Joshua Allen fumbled, forced by Devon Jones, recovered by Akron Ulysees Gilbert III, return for 46…
- Q4 13:25M-OH +25%
Kenny Young run for 74 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
- Q2 10:00M-OH +22%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
- Q2 4:57M-OH +18%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 7 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
- Q2 1:44AKR +17%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 17 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Akron?
Miami (OH) 41, Akron 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AKR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| M-OH | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 422 | Total yards | 259 |
| 214 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 56 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/33 | Comp/Att | 19/35 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 8-86 |
| 31:44 | Possession | 28:16 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:08 M-OH punt on 4th & 3 at AKR 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:34M-OHJordan Rigg 0 Yd Fumble Return (Samuel Sloman Kick)41–17
- Q4 10:53M-OHSamuel Sloman 36 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q4 13:25M-OHKenny Young 74 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)31–17
- Q3 3:14M-OHSamuel Sloman 27 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q3 8:53M-OHKenny Young 3 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)21–17
- Q3 11:06AKRUlysees Gilbert III 46 Yd Fumble Return (Nick Gasser Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:47AKRNick Gasser 40 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 1:44AKRNate Stewart 17 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)14–7
- Q2 4:57M-OHKenny Young 7 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Samuel Sloman Kick)14–0
- Q2 10:00M-OHAlonzo Smith 3 Yd Run (Samuel Sloman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AKR Elo 1315, M-OH Elo 1315 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AKR -2.4 (58% to win) — 2.6 points clear of M-OH's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #78 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Miami (OH) leads 22–8 · Miami (OH) has won 8 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.5 (#94) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#108) |
| -2 / +4 | offense / defense | -16 / -1 |
| 2.20 | points / drive | 1.01 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 1.92 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →