Kentucky vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsTENN
- Q3 1:56UKC.J. Conrad 19 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Chance Poore Kick)7–24
- Q3 7:49TENNDominick Wood-Anderson 2 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:00TENNMarquez Callaway 39 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)0–17
- Q2 2:05TENNTim Jordan 3 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)0–10
- Q1 5:09TENNBrent Cimaglia 19 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTerry Wilson 21/34, 172 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBenny Snell Jr. 20 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecLynn Bowden Jr. 6 REC, 57 YDS
- PassJarrett Guarantano 12/20, 197 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTy Chandler 16 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecMarquez Callaway 2 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:05TENN +24%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds for a TD PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. KENTUCKY Penalty, offside de…
- Q2 0:00TENN +16%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 39 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q1 5:09TENN +10%
Brent Cimaglia 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:49TENN +7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q2 0:13TENN +6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 17 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Tennessee?
Kentucky 7, Tennessee 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 262 | Total yards | 412 |
| 185 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 215 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 12/20 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 29:50 | Possession | 30:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:49 TENN punt on 4th & 3 at UK 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:56UKC.J. Conrad 19 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Chance Poore Kick)7–24
- Q3 7:49TENNDominick Wood-Anderson 2 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:00TENNMarquez Callaway 39 Yd pass from Jarrett Guarantano (Brent Cimaglia Kick)0–17
- Q2 2:05TENNTim Jordan 3 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)0–10
- Q1 5:09TENNBrent Cimaglia 19 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1392, UK Elo 1625 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN +6.9 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #79 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #10 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Tennessee leads 84–25–9 · Tennessee has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| UK | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.7 (#31) | CORE overall | -2.9 (#82) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | -4 / -1 |
| 2.02 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 2.52 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →