Boise State vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsOKST
- Q4 4:16OKSTTaylor Cornelius 6 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)21–44
- Q4 11:07OKSTMatt Ammendola 23 Yd Field Goal 21–37
- Q3 1:30BOISChase Blakley 5 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)21–34
- Q3 5:11OKSTZa'Carrius Green 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–34
- Q3 6:40OKSTDillon Stoner 32 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–27
- Q3 9:18BOISA.J. Richardson 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)14–20
- Q3 13:03OKSTMatt Ammendola 48 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 2:12OKSTMatt Ammendola 22 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 8:43OKSTTaylor Cornelius 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:08OKSTJustice Hill 8 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:20BOISJohn Hightower 31 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrett Rypien 39/56, 380 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAlexander Mattison 14 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecA.J. Richardson 6 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTaylor Cornelius 15/26, 243 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJustice Hill 15 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTylan Wallace 5 REC, 105 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:08OKST +20%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q2 14:20BOIS +20%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 31 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
- Q2 8:43OKST +20%
Taylor Cornelius run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q3 9:18BOIS +17%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 34 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
- Q3 6:40OKST +16%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 32 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q3 5:11OKST +7%
Joel Velazquez punt blocked by Jarrick Bernard blocked by Jarrick Bernard Za'Carrius Green return for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Oklahoma State?
Boise State 21, Oklahoma State 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OKST) was correct.
| BOIS | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 414 | Total yards | 422 |
| 380 | Passing yards | 246 |
| 34 | Rushing yards | 176 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 11-22 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 39/56 | Comp/Att | 16/27 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 34:34 | Possession | 25:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:12 OKST field goal on 4th & 3 at BOIS 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:16OKSTTaylor Cornelius 6 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)21–44
- Q4 11:07OKSTMatt Ammendola 23 Yd Field Goal 21–37
- Q3 1:30BOISChase Blakley 5 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)21–34
- Q3 5:11OKSTZa'Carrius Green 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–34
- Q3 6:40OKSTDillon Stoner 32 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–27
- Q3 9:18BOISA.J. Richardson 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)14–20
- Q3 13:03OKSTMatt Ammendola 48 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 2:12OKSTMatt Ammendola 22 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 8:43OKSTTaylor Cornelius 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:08OKSTJustice Hill 8 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:20BOISJohn Hightower 31 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1832, BOIS Elo 1837 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -2.2 (57% to win) — 4.2 points clear of OKST's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #105 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #48 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →| BOIS | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.6 (#12) | CORE overall | +5.0 (#43) |
| +10 / -7 | offense / defense | +7 / +2 |
| 2.82 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →