North Texas vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsARK
- Q4 0:53ARKMaleek Williams 68 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)44–17
- Q4 7:42UNTKemon Hall 24 Yd Interception Return (Cole Hedlund Kick)44–10
- Q3 9:26UNTCole Hedlund 20 Yd Field Goal 37–10
- Q2 0:10UNTCole Hedlund 26 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q2 2:55UNTRico Bussey Jr. 7 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Cole Hedlund Kick)31–10
- Q2 7:21UNTLoren Easly 3 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)24–10
- Q2 9:27ARKConnor Limpert 54 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 14:08ARKCole Kelley 5 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)17–7
- Q1 5:04UNTCole Hedlund 24 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 6:49UNTKeegan Brewer 90 Yd Punt Return (Cole Hedlund Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:36UNTMason Fine 2 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMason Fine 24/45, 281 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLoren Easly 13 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaelon Darden 5 REC, 87 YDS
- PassCole Kelley 16/35, 185 YDS, 4 INT
- RushMaleek Williams 5 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Woods II 4 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:21UNT +21%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
- Q1 9:36UNT +18%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
- Q1 6:49UNT +18%
Blake Johnson punt for 27 yds, Keegan Brewer returns for 90 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
- Q2 14:08ARK +15%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
- Q2 2:55UNT +11%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
- Q2 9:27ARK +8%
Connor Limpert 54 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Arkansas?
North Texas 44, Arkansas 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 376 | Total yards | 336 |
| 281 | Passing yards | 210 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/46 | Comp/Att | 20/45 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 9-102 | Penalties | 10-70 |
| 30:04 | Possession | 29:56 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:50 UNT punt on 4th & 3 at ARK 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.04 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:53ARKMaleek Williams 68 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)44–17
- Q4 7:42UNTKemon Hall 24 Yd Interception Return (Cole Hedlund Kick)44–10
- Q3 9:26UNTCole Hedlund 20 Yd Field Goal 37–10
- Q2 0:10UNTCole Hedlund 26 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q2 2:55UNTRico Bussey Jr. 7 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Cole Hedlund Kick)31–10
- Q2 7:21UNTLoren Easly 3 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)24–10
- Q2 9:27ARKConnor Limpert 54 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 14:08ARKCole Kelley 5 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)17–7
- Q1 5:04UNTCole Hedlund 24 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 6:49UNTKeegan Brewer 90 Yd Punt Return (Cole Hedlund Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:36UNTMason Fine 2 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1448, UNT Elo 1397 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -4.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #75 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Arkansas leads 9–1 · 10% have been one-possession games
| UNT | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 (#39) | CORE overall | -2.5 (#79) |
| +3 / -3 | offense / defense | -2 / +0 |
| 2.42 | points / drive | 1.36 |
| 1.70 | allowed / drive | 2.70 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →