Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsCLT
- Q4 1:55WKUSteven Witchoskey 7 Yd pass from Steven Duncan (Ryan Nuss Kick)14–40
- Q4 5:08CLTRico Arnold 28 Yd pass from Evan Shirreffs (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–40
- Q4 13:57CLTJonathan Cruz 51 Yd Field Goal 7–33
- Q3 3:25CLTAaron McAllister 14 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–30
- Q3 4:20CLTBenny LeMay 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–23
- Q3 9:42CLTEvan Shirreffs 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–16
- Q2 4:30CLTJonathan Cruz 33 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 3:20WKUKevaris Thomas 4 Yd Run (Ryan Nuss Kick)7–6
- Q1 13:15CLTBenny LeMay 35 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassDavis Shanley 20/29, 154 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJosh Samuel 6 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecJacquez Sloan 6 REC, 83 YDS
- PassChris Reynolds 12/19, 119 YDS
- RushBenny LeMay 17 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
- RecVictor Tucker 9 REC, 91 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLT up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:42CLT +30%
Evan Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
- Q3 4:20CLT +22%
Benny LeMay run for 9 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
- Q1 3:20WKU +16%
Kevaris Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)
- Q1 13:15CLT +14%
Benny LeMay run for 35 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q2 4:30CLT +11%
Jonathan Cruz 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:36CLT +8%
Benny LeMay run for 1 yd to the WKent 39
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte?
Western Kentucky 14, Charlotte 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 256 | Total yards | 448 |
| 214 | Passing yards | 237 |
| 42 | Rushing yards | 211 |
| 17 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/39 | Comp/Att | 17/26 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 21:19 | Possession | 38:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 WKU punt on 4th & 13 at CLT 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55WKUSteven Witchoskey 7 Yd pass from Steven Duncan (Ryan Nuss Kick)14–40
- Q4 5:08CLTRico Arnold 28 Yd pass from Evan Shirreffs (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–40
- Q4 13:57CLTJonathan Cruz 51 Yd Field Goal 7–33
- Q3 3:25CLTAaron McAllister 14 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–30
- Q3 4:20CLTBenny LeMay 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–23
- Q3 9:42CLTEvan Shirreffs 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–16
- Q2 4:30CLTJonathan Cruz 33 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 3:20WKUKevaris Thomas 4 Yd Run (Ryan Nuss Kick)7–6
- Q1 13:15CLTBenny LeMay 35 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1042, WKU Elo 1394 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +11.7 (23% to win) — 2.2 points clear of WKU's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #45 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| WKU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.4 (#103) | CORE overall | -10.5 (#98) |
| -9 / +4 | offense / defense | -9 / +2 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →