Oregon State vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsCOLO
- OT 0:00ORSTJack Colletto 1 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)41–34
- Q4 0:29ORSTTrevon Bradford 10 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair PAT blocked)34–34
- Q4 2:05COLOEvan Price 34 Yd Field Goal 28–34
- Q4 7:13ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 7 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jake Luton Pass to Isaiah Hodgins for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q4 9:29ORSTJordan Choukair 35 Yd Field Goal 20–31
- Q4 14:30ORSTJack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)17–31
- Q3 8:17ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 8 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)10–31
- Q3 14:48COLOTravon McMillian 75 Yd Run (Evan Price Kick)3–31
- Q2 4:44COLOK.D. Nixon 7 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Evan Price Kick)3–24
- Q2 8:48COLODante Wigley 27 Yd Interception Return (Evan Price Kick)3–17
- Q2 9:12COLOEvan Price 21 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 13:12ORSTJordan Choukair 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:00COLOK.D. Nixon 32 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Evan Price Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and COLO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassJake Luton 28/39, 310 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJermar Jefferson 30 CAR, 135 YDS
- RecIsaiah Hodgins 11 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- PassSteven Montez 24/39, 319 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTravon McMillian 20 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RecK.D. Nixon 13 REC, 198 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:29ORST +83%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds for a TD (Jordan Choukair PAT BLOCKED)
- Q4 0:00COLO +59%
Davis Price 53 yd FG MISSED
- OT 0:00ORST +49%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Colo 20
- Q4 2:05COLO +24%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Hodgins, Isaiah, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Udoffia, Trey) 15 yards to the COLO36, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY
- Q4 7:13ORST +19%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Luton pass to Isaiah Hodgins for Two-Point Conversion)
- OT 0:00COLO +16%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony Brown, broken up by Shemar Smith
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Colorado?
Oregon State 41, Colorado 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORST | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 459 | Total yards | 536 |
| 345 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 28 | First downs | 23 |
| 11-24 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 34/54 | Comp/Att | 24/39 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-62 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 33:13 | Possession | 26:47 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:17 COLO punt on 4th & 1 at COLO 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00ORSTJack Colletto 1 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)41–34
- Q4 0:29ORSTTrevon Bradford 10 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair PAT blocked)34–34
- Q4 2:05COLOEvan Price 34 Yd Field Goal 28–34
- Q4 7:13ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 7 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jake Luton Pass to Isaiah Hodgins for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q4 9:29ORSTJordan Choukair 35 Yd Field Goal 20–31
- Q4 14:30ORSTJack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)17–31
- Q3 8:17ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 8 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)10–31
- Q3 14:48COLOTravon McMillian 75 Yd Run (Evan Price Kick)3–31
- Q2 4:44COLOK.D. Nixon 7 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Evan Price Kick)3–24
- Q2 8:48COLODante Wigley 27 Yd Interception Return (Evan Price Kick)3–17
- Q2 9:12COLOEvan Price 21 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 13:12ORSTJordan Choukair 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:00COLOK.D. Nixon 32 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Evan Price Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1589, ORST Elo 1048 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO -24 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #3 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Oregon State leads 8–6 · Oregon State has won 2 straight · 57% have been one-possession games
| ORST | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.9 (#126) | CORE overall | -3.6 (#88) |
| +1 / +24 | offense / defense | -7 / -3 |
| 1.69 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 3.94 | allowed / drive | 2.04 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →