Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 4:29TTUDemarcus Felton 17 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)41–17
- Q3 1:25TTUClayton Hatfield 32 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 8:57TTUDemarcus Felton 27 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)31–17
- Q2 1:40TTUClayton Hatfield 31 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 7:15TTUSaRodorick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)21–17
- Q2 10:40OKSTJustice Hill 13 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:56TTUKeSean Carter 2 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Clayton Hatfield Kick)14–10
- Q1 2:00OKSTMatt Ammendola 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:50TTUT.J. Vasher 12 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Clayton Hatfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:35OKSTJ.D. King 23 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassAlan Bowman 35/46, 397 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDemarcus Felton 14 CAR, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAntoine Wesley 7 REC, 98 YDS
- PassTaylor Cornelius 18/38, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJustice Hill 12 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTylan Wallace 7 REC, 123 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:57TTU +27%
Demarcus Felton run for 27 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
- Q2 7:15TTU +17%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
- Q2 14:56TTU +16%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 2 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
- Q2 10:40OKST +14%
Justice Hill run for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q2 1:40TTU +13%
Clayton Hatfield 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 4:50TTU +10%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 12 yds for a TD (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TTU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 621 | Total yards | 386 |
| 397 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 224 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 35 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-14 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 35/46 | Comp/Att | 18/38 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 8-73 |
| 41:17 | Possession | 18:43 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:31 TTU field goal on 4th & 1 at OKST 14. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:29TTUDemarcus Felton 17 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)41–17
- Q3 1:25TTUClayton Hatfield 32 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 8:57TTUDemarcus Felton 27 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)31–17
- Q2 1:40TTUClayton Hatfield 31 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 7:15TTUSaRodorick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)21–17
- Q2 10:40OKSTJustice Hill 13 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:56TTUKeSean Carter 2 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Clayton Hatfield Kick)14–10
- Q1 2:00OKSTMatt Ammendola 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:50TTUT.J. Vasher 12 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Clayton Hatfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:35OKSTJ.D. King 23 Yd pass from Taylor Cornelius (Matt Ammendola Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1889, TTU Elo 1520 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -17.2 (87% to win) — 2.7 points clear of OKST's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #15 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #18 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Texas Tech leads 25–24–3 · Texas Tech has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| TTU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8 (#71) | CORE overall | +5.0 (#43) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | +7 / +2 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 2.51 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →