Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+26.6%

Washington State

Least

−35.5%

Navy

Spread

62.1%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.24(r² = 0.06)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±36%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Washington State	Pac-12	72.1	45.5	+26.6	+27.3	30	+4.8	-21.4
2	Purdue	Big Ten	62.6	46.6	+16.0	+18.5	15	-3.5	-51.3
3	Hawai'i	Mountain West	61.8	48.7	+13.1	+15.3	32	+6.7	-4.2
4	New Mexico State	FBS Independents	65.0	53.1	+11.9	+12.9	19	-1.5	-27.3
5	North Texas	Conference USA	57.2	47.5	+9.7	+10.1	20	+3.1	-40.5
6	Texas Tech	Big 12	59.9	50.2	+9.6	+9.7	20	+2.6	-13.9
7	Utah State	Mountain West	56.7	48.3	+8.4	+8.2	12	-4.4	-46.7
8	West Virginia	Big 12	58.0	49.7	+8.3	+8.3	21	+0.0	-33.3
9	Duke	ACC	55.8	47.8	+8.0	+11.3	20	+2.8	-26.2
10	Ohio State	Big Ten	54.1	46.3	+7.7	+7.1	19	-4.5	-50.0
11	San José State	Mountain West	60.8	53.3	+7.5	+7.7	10	-8.0	-36.6
12	Fresno State	Mountain West	52.3	44.9	+7.5	+6.8	9	-7.5	-62.9
13	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	55.4	48.2	+7.2	+7.2	19	-0.9	-36.0
14	SMU	American Athletic	58.4	51.2	+7.2	+7.6	23	+2.4	-19.1
15	NC State	ACC	52.9	45.8	+7.1	+4.9	15	-2.0	-54.0
16	Nevada	Mountain West	57.0	50.0	+7.1	+9.1	25	+0.9	-18.4
17	Clemson	ACC	53.1	46.2	+7.0	+6.2	15	+0.4	-39.4
18	Colorado State	Mountain West	59.8	52.9	+6.9	+6.8	6	-5.8	-48.1
19	East Carolina	American Athletic	61.2	54.5	+6.7	+7.0	16	-1.6	-21.9
20	Old Dominion	Conference USA	60.4	54.0	+6.4	+7.7	28	+3.8	-20.8
21	Ole Miss	SEC	57.3	50.8	+6.4	+8.1	18	-7.2	-38.5
22	Alabama	SEC	50.9	44.5	+6.4	+7.2	17	-1.3	-36.4
23	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	55.6	49.4	+6.2	+6.7	24	+0.6	-13.3
24	Indiana	Big Ten	56.2	50.5	+5.7	+6.3	26	-0.4	-29.5
25	Northwestern	Big Ten	53.7	48.0	+5.7	+6.5	26	+2.4	-18.6
26	Stanford	Pac-12	55.6	50.0	+5.6	+6.5	9	-9.6	-64.1
27	Michigan State	Big Ten	54.8	49.2	+5.6	+5.1	13	-0.2	-31.4
28	Boise State	Mountain West	52.2	46.7	+5.5	+4.5	25	+3.0	-27.1
29	Southern Miss	Conference USA	56.1	50.7	+5.4	+5.1	18	-0.9	-26.5
30	Oklahoma State	Big 12	54.2	49.3	+4.9	+5.5	21	+2.0	-18.4
31	USC	Pac-12	53.7	48.9	+4.9	+4.5	16	-6.3	-42.3
32	UTSA	Conference USA	56.6	52.1	+4.5	+4.1	13	-6.7	-36.6
33	Auburn	SEC	52.5	48.4	+4.1	+3.4	18	-10.4	-37.5
34	Syracuse	ACC	48.5	44.4	+4.0	+8.0	12	-2.1	-40.5
35	Baylor	Big 12	52.9	49.2	+3.6	+4.2	21	+2.4	+0.0
36	Florida State	ACC	56.1	52.5	+3.5	+2.7	13	-0.4	-33.3
37	Vanderbilt	SEC	52.7	49.2	+3.5	+1.0	24	-2.9	-32.7
38	Bowling Green	Mid-American	54.4	51.0	+3.5	+3.4	17	+4.1	-11.5
39	Texas	Big 12	48.6	45.3	+3.4	+2.9	15	-1.8	-44.7
40	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	55.8	52.7	+3.1	+1.8	30	+6.6	+7.9
41	Colorado	Pac-12	54.7	51.9	+2.8	+4.0	20	-1.0	-30.9
42	North Carolina	ACC	54.8	52.0	+2.8	+1.7	19	-1.0	-15.8
43	Texas A&M	SEC	50.8	48.1	+2.7	+3.4	11	-5.7	-41.2
44	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	50.7	48.1	+2.7	+3.9	26	+0.2	-27.5
45	Ball State	Mid-American	55.0	52.3	+2.6	+1.4	23	-3.8	-19.6
46	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	50.4	48.0	+2.4	+2.2	14	-0.2	-20.0
47	Akron	Mid-American	55.8	53.6	+2.2	+2.9	11	-5.6	-35.6
48	Liberty	FBS Independents	51.6	49.5	+2.1	-1.6	20	-4.0	-39.6
49	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	47.0	44.9	+2.1	+2.2	26	+1.6	-25.5
50	Louisville	ACC	54.5	52.4	+2.1	+3.7	18	-2.1	-24.3
51	South Carolina	SEC	52.2	50.1	+2.1	-0.3	24	+1.0	-31.8
52	Temple	American Athletic	49.5	47.5	+2.0	+1.6	27	+1.4	-20.0
53	Iowa	Big Ten	50.2	48.3	+1.9	-0.4	19	+1.6	-40.5
54	California	Pac-12	51.0	49.4	+1.7	+1.5	19	-4.7	-38.0
55	Marshall	Conference USA	49.2	47.6	+1.7	+4.2	15	-6.8	-43.1
56	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	52.3	50.9	+1.4	+1.8	23	+3.7	-20.0
57	Nebraska	Big Ten	49.9	49.3	+0.6	+2.0	22	+1.1	-16.7
58	Missouri	SEC	47.9	47.3	+0.5	-2.0	14	-7.6	-56.8
59	Penn State	Big Ten	47.4	46.9	+0.5	+2.7	14	-1.8	-41.5
60	Oklahoma	Big 12	46.2	45.7	+0.5	-0.2	27	+4.5	-31.0
61	Houston	American Athletic	49.4	48.9	+0.4	+2.4	26	+7.2	+2.7
62	Iowa State	Big 12	48.2	47.9	+0.3	-1.4	17	-2.2	-25.6
63	BYU	FBS Independents	48.7	48.4	+0.2	+0.8	18	-1.6	-37.5
64	Kent State	Mid-American	52.3	52.2	+0.1	+2.9	23	+3.8	-25.0
65	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	50.0	50.2	-0.2	+0.7	27	+2.0	-27.5
66	Oregon State	Pac-12	54.0	54.2	-0.2	-1.2	29	+0.2	+12.5
67	Troy	Sun Belt	46.8	47.3	-0.5	+2.2	20	+1.2	-22.7
68	Oregon	Pac-12	46.6	47.2	-0.6	-3.5	22	+0.7	-40.4
69	Buffalo	Mid-American	45.4	46.0	-0.6	-0.4	31	+8.4	-5.1
70	Virginia Tech	ACC	50.5	51.2	-0.7	-0.5	19	-2.3	-39.6
71	Florida International	Conference USA	47.1	47.9	-0.7	-3.8	24	+1.8	-11.1
72	Virginia	ACC	47.0	47.9	-1.0	+0.7	15	-6.4	-51.4
73	LSU	SEC	45.0	46.3	-1.3	-0.5	11	-8.3	-59.1
74	TCU	Big 12	48.5	50.1	-1.6	-1.9	14	-7.2	-42.9
75	Tennessee	SEC	47.6	49.3	-1.8	-3.4	10	-8.6	-55.9
76	Utah	Pac-12	46.2	48.1	-1.8	-2.5	17	-5.3	-29.5
77	UCLA	Pac-12	50.4	52.3	-1.9	-2.9	23	-0.3	-30.6
78	Arizona State	Pac-12	47.1	49.1	-2.0	-1.7	19	-4.9	-30.2
79	Arkansas	SEC	50.7	52.7	-2.0	-3.6	8	-8.5	-43.8
80	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	48.3	50.3	-2.0	-1.8	22	-3.5	-32.0
81	Texas State	Sun Belt	48.3	50.9	-2.6	-2.6	14	-8.1	-30.6
82	Washington	Pac-12	43.1	45.9	-2.7	-4.8	23	+1.5	-22.2
83	Georgia	SEC	43.4	46.5	-3.0	-4.8	15	-2.6	-40.0
84	South Florida	American Athletic	47.3	50.4	-3.1	-1.1	15	-3.4	-34.1
85	Western Michigan	Mid-American	43.7	46.9	-3.2	-3.3	31	+5.0	-17.6
86	Toledo	Mid-American	45.3	48.7	-3.3	-3.1	22	+4.2	-16.3
87	Miami	ACC	47.3	51.0	-3.7	-2.9	22	+0.3	-30.2
88	Florida	SEC	43.0	46.7	-3.7	-3.2	18	-1.5	-38.5
89	Rutgers	Big Ten	50.6	54.4	-3.8	-6.3	14	-3.9	-35.9
90	UCF	American Athletic	41.8	45.6	-3.8	-2.5	25	+1.6	-25.6
91	Cincinnati	American Athletic	43.6	47.6	-4.0	-6.0	26	+4.9	-19.4
92	Arizona	Pac-12	45.4	49.6	-4.2	-5.7	14	-6.4	-35.3
93	Wake Forest	ACC	48.3	52.5	-4.2	-5.0	21	-0.9	-24.5
94	Kansas	Big 12	49.8	54.0	-4.2	-6.1	14	-6.5	-31.7
95	Michigan	Big Ten	42.4	46.6	-4.3	-5.2	21	-4.9	-40.4
96	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	45.3	49.6	-4.3	-3.8	17	-3.9	-39.7
97	Memphis	American Athletic	43.0	47.5	-4.5	-8.1	17	+0.0	-45.5
98	App State	Sun Belt	40.8	46.0	-5.3	-6.1	23	+5.7	-29.0
99	Minnesota	Big Ten	44.3	49.7	-5.4	-5.3	21	-0.6	-28.6
100	Mississippi State	SEC	42.1	47.9	-5.9	-6.6	19	-7.4	-47.5
101	Ohio	Mid-American	39.8	46.1	-6.3	-5.6	17	-7.6	-40.0
102	Boston College	ACC	41.3	47.9	-6.5	-7.5	26	+6.7	-11.1
103	Illinois	Big Ten	44.0	50.8	-6.8	-8.8	15	-8.0	-50.0
104	Central Michigan	Mid-American	49.1	56.0	-6.9	-8.7	11	-5.0	-48.8
105	Georgia State	Sun Belt	45.0	52.2	-7.2	-8.7	24	-3.9	-10.8
106	UAB	Conference USA	39.7	47.2	-7.5	-9.0	13	-5.1	-35.9
107	UTEP	Conference USA	44.6	52.2	-7.5	-6.4	15	-5.9	-12.5
108	Rice	Conference USA	47.6	55.4	-7.9	-9.2	23	-5.2	-25.4
109	Kentucky	SEC	39.3	47.2	-7.9	-7.7	13	-2.5	-46.9
110	UConn	American Athletic	45.1	53.4	-8.3	-8.8	20	-4.0	-22.6
111	Louisiana	Sun Belt	41.8	50.1	-8.3	-10.7	19	-0.8	-31.7
112	Kansas State	Big 12	40.1	48.5	-8.3	-8.6	23	-0.7	-32.6
113	San Diego State	Mountain West	41.0	49.4	-8.4	-9.4	15	-3.3	-42.0
114	UNLV	Mountain West	43.6	52.3	-8.7	-9.9	26	-1.7	-23.1
115	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	40.2	48.9	-8.7	-8.3	34	+13.9	+7.1
116	South Alabama	Sun Belt	43.7	52.6	-8.8	-9.4	27	-0.3	-25.0
117	Charlotte	Conference USA	44.0	53.5	-9.5	-9.4	22	+3.5	-16.7
118	Pittsburgh	ACC	39.9	49.8	-9.9	-10.4	15	-0.6	-27.0
119	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	38.7	49.0	-10.3	-10.4	22	-4.4	-29.7
120	New Mexico	Mountain West	40.0	50.4	-10.4	-13.2	4	-5.3	-60.9
121	Wisconsin	Big Ten	38.0	48.5	-10.5	-15.3	14	-8.7	-48.8
122	Tulsa	American Athletic	40.1	51.3	-11.2	-14.0	25	-0.8	-11.6
123	Tulane	American Athletic	38.5	49.7	-11.2	-12.4	25	+4.2	-9.8
124	Maryland	Big Ten	38.4	51.2	-12.8	-17.6	12	-5.4	-48.7
125	Wyoming	Mountain West	36.8	51.0	-14.2	-15.6	12	-6.9	-47.2
126	Air Force	Mountain West	21.8	47.0	-25.3	-24.3	38	+1.6	-25.9
127	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	18.4	48.0	-29.5	-28.9	13	-8.8	-64.7
128	Georgia Tech	ACC	14.5	47.1	-32.6	-32.8	39	+8.4	-8.6
129	Army	FBS Independents	11.3	45.6	-34.3	-33.1	46	+11.6	-12.5
130	Navy	American Athletic	15.6	51.1	-35.5	-33.9	32	+2.1	-18.4

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.