Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+21.8%

Washington State

Least

−32.5%

Army

Spread

54.3%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

128 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.41(r² = 0.17)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±32%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Washington State	Pac-12	68.6	46.7	+21.8	+23.3	37	+13.0	-2.2
2	Texas Tech	Big 12	66.2	50.5	+15.7	+18.3	28	+6.7	-17.2
3	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	60.0	46.0	+14.0	+14.8	11	-5.4	-53.1
4	UCLA	Pac-12	62.2	49.6	+12.6	+12.1	9	-9.3	-46.8
5	California	Pac-12	62.8	50.6	+12.2	+12.5	26	+0.8	-32.7
6	Clemson	ACC	56.5	45.2	+11.2	+9.9	21	-2.4	-41.5
7	Purdue	Big Ten	64.3	53.4	+10.9	+11.7	26	-0.8	-21.4
8	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	58.4	48.1	+10.3	+9.5	15	-2.9	-32.3
9	East Carolina	American Athletic	63.2	53.2	+10.0	+10.3	31	-0.7	-12.5
10	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	55.1	45.4	+9.8	+9.7	15	-3.5	-34.6
11	Central Michigan	Mid-American	58.8	50.5	+8.4	+6.8	13	-1.2	-41.0
12	Cincinnati	American Athletic	58.3	50.1	+8.2	+5.1	15	-6.8	-45.3
13	Ole Miss	SEC	57.2	49.7	+7.5	+8.2	19	-4.5	-44.4
14	Kansas	Big 12	59.9	52.7	+7.2	+9.2	15	-6.1	-35.0
15	Virginia	ACC	59.6	52.5	+7.1	+9.0	17	-4.4	-33.3
16	Georgia State	Sun Belt	60.6	53.6	+7.0	+6.5	11	-7.2	-25.7
17	Miami	ACC	53.9	47.0	+6.9	+6.6	12	-4.9	-40.9
18	Marshall	Conference USA	61.0	54.1	+6.9	+6.6	15	-10.1	-35.0
19	Oklahoma State	Big 12	53.2	46.5	+6.7	+7.8	13	-8.4	-53.2
20	TCU	Big 12	54.9	48.5	+6.3	+7.3	15	-7.4	-50.0
21	North Carolina	ACC	57.3	51.0	+6.3	+4.1	20	-4.3	-21.9
22	Houston	American Athletic	55.5	49.5	+6.0	+5.9	27	+6.8	-17.5
23	Washington	Pac-12	53.9	48.0	+5.9	+4.8	10	-7.5	-40.9
24	Memphis	American Athletic	57.0	51.1	+5.8	+4.3	23	-0.1	-25.0
25	North Texas	Conference USA	57.7	52.0	+5.7	+5.8	17	-2.1	-34.4
26	Syracuse	ACC	57.5	52.0	+5.5	+5.7	24	+1.1	-16.2
27	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	54.3	49.1	+5.2	+5.5	11	-6.5	-54.4
28	Duke	ACC	55.0	49.9	+5.1	+3.2	20	-5.1	-17.5
29	Akron	Mid-American	56.1	50.9	+5.1	+8.3	19	-2.0	-17.9
30	USC	Pac-12	52.1	47.1	+5.0	+3.4	16	-5.1	-48.7
31	Hawai'i	Mountain West	53.3	48.4	+4.9	+6.1	23	+3.6	-33.3
32	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	57.5	52.8	+4.7	+5.1	25	+3.0	+2.6
33	Florida	SEC	53.3	48.8	+4.6	+3.4	15	-3.4	-37.0
34	Northwestern	Big Ten	53.3	48.9	+4.4	+3.4	25	+2.8	-11.4
35	Southern Miss	Conference USA	52.8	48.4	+4.4	+2.4	29	+5.3	-19.6
36	Florida State	ACC	49.5	45.4	+4.1	+2.9	7	-11.4	-50.0
37	Troy	Sun Belt	53.2	49.2	+4.0	+4.5	20	-4.0	-47.5
38	Texas State	Sun Belt	57.9	54.2	+3.7	+5.6	20	-0.5	-14.3
39	Idaho	Sun Belt	50.7	47.0	+3.6	+3.6	13	-8.0	-54.0
40	Texas A&M	SEC	51.2	47.8	+3.3	+2.8	13	-5.0	-41.9
41	Boise State	Mountain West	48.7	45.6	+3.1	+2.5	21	+6.3	-17.4
42	Louisville	ACC	52.5	49.6	+2.9	+3.9	17	-1.0	-21.9
43	NC State	ACC	49.7	47.1	+2.6	-0.1	24	+1.2	-26.2
44	Florida International	Conference USA	53.0	50.7	+2.3	+3.0	25	-1.2	-26.5
45	SMU	American Athletic	52.0	49.9	+2.2	+0.7	11	-8.5	-51.1
46	Colorado	Pac-12	48.0	45.9	+2.1	+1.7	15	-2.1	-44.2
47	Illinois	Big Ten	54.4	52.4	+1.9	-0.5	11	-10.7	-39.5
48	UCF	American Athletic	51.5	49.7	+1.9	+3.3	22	+3.5	-16.7
49	New Mexico State	Sun Belt	54.1	52.4	+1.6	+5.2	20	-2.6	-38.6
50	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	51.9	50.4	+1.6	+0.3	22	-3.1	-37.2
51	Old Dominion	Conference USA	45.5	44.2	+1.3	+5.5	31	+10.3	-26.1
52	Utah State	Mountain West	52.6	51.6	+1.0	-1.0	15	-6.4	-35.9
53	South Carolina	SEC	52.6	51.7	+0.9	+0.3	20	-5.2	-42.1
54	Arizona State	Pac-12	52.4	51.6	+0.8	+1.6	16	-8.3	-40.4
55	Iowa State	Big 12	51.5	50.9	+0.7	-1.7	25	-1.7	-7.9
56	Toledo	Mid-American	48.0	47.5	+0.5	-1.9	13	-5.1	-53.1
57	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	48.9	48.7	+0.2	+2.5	14	-1.7	-30.8
58	Virginia Tech	ACC	46.8	47.2	-0.4	+2.0	12	-9.5	-61.4
59	Arkansas	SEC	48.1	48.5	-0.4	-2.5	18	-3.4	-34.2
60	Penn State	Big Ten	46.7	47.3	-0.7	+0.9	15	-6.9	-51.8
61	Western Michigan	Mid-American	42.2	43.0	-0.8	+0.2	18	-1.7	-35.1
62	Buffalo	Mid-American	53.4	54.3	-0.8	+0.2	16	-4.7	-36.2
63	Oklahoma	Big 12	42.6	43.6	-1.1	-1.5	14	-7.6	-37.1
64	Indiana	Big Ten	49.0	50.2	-1.1	-2.6	23	-3.3	-16.7
65	Bowling Green	Mid-American	47.6	48.8	-1.2	+0.3	38	+5.8	-2.1
66	Alabama	SEC	44.5	45.8	-1.3	-0.3	11	-2.5	-44.4
67	West Virginia	Big 12	45.7	47.0	-1.3	-0.4	18	-2.1	-24.3
68	South Alabama	Sun Belt	49.3	50.9	-1.6	-2.2	20	+1.8	-14.0
69	UConn	American Athletic	51.0	52.7	-1.7	-0.6	20	-7.2	-30.0
70	Ohio	Mid-American	47.6	49.3	-1.7	-1.1	11	-7.4	-42.3
71	Charlotte	Conference USA	48.9	50.7	-1.8	-3.5	25	+1.8	-16.7
72	Ohio State	Big Ten	44.9	46.7	-1.9	-1.2	16	-1.5	-43.2
73	Michigan	Big Ten	44.2	46.1	-1.9	-6.2	15	-2.9	-46.0
74	Rice	Conference USA	49.9	51.7	-1.9	-1.1	11	-4.4	-35.3
75	Ball State	Mid-American	47.4	49.3	-1.9	-3.2	21	-8.2	-51.0
76	Baylor	Big 12	47.2	49.2	-2.0	+1.0	40	+10.9	+8.0
77	LSU	SEC	43.6	45.7	-2.1	-3.8	7	-7.5	-65.8
78	Nebraska	Big Ten	44.6	46.8	-2.2	-6.5	19	+3.9	-25.0
79	Oregon	Pac-12	47.9	50.2	-2.3	-2.8	28	+7.0	-8.9
80	San José State	Mountain West	49.5	51.8	-2.4	-4.2	20	+1.9	-26.8
81	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	46.9	49.3	-2.4	-2.4	17	-1.5	-20.0
82	Temple	American Athletic	46.5	48.9	-2.4	-4.8	22	+4.6	-11.1
83	Vanderbilt	SEC	48.3	50.7	-2.5	-5.7	15	-5.8	-38.3
84	Missouri	SEC	48.6	51.1	-2.5	-2.3	21	-0.5	-30.4
85	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	48.3	50.9	-2.6	-3.4	16	-6.9	-37.8
86	Oregon State	Pac-12	47.6	50.3	-2.6	-4.9	14	-7.1	-33.3
87	Tennessee	SEC	45.0	47.9	-2.9	-4.9	10	-5.3	-29.0
88	Mississippi State	SEC	44.4	47.6	-3.2	-2.6	21	-3.6	-35.9
89	BYU	FBS Independents	45.7	49.1	-3.4	-5.1	19	-2.9	-46.0
90	Utah	Pac-12	44.6	48.2	-3.6	-3.0	20	-1.2	-30.4
91	Fresno State	Mountain West	50.4	54.3	-3.9	-5.5	19	-2.2	-12.2
92	Georgia	SEC	44.7	48.6	-3.9	-7.9	14	-2.8	-38.6
93	UTSA	Conference USA	46.1	50.0	-3.9	-7.2	24	+3.4	+2.6
94	Wake Forest	ACC	45.4	49.6	-4.2	-3.3	10	-9.8	-41.9
95	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	44.6	48.8	-4.2	-5.3	17	-6.8	-47.2
96	UTEP	Conference USA	47.9	52.6	-4.8	-7.1	20	+0.2	-25.0
97	Tulsa	American Athletic	43.4	48.3	-4.8	-6.0	15	+0.2	-33.3
98	Michigan State	Big Ten	48.0	53.0	-5.1	-7.3	23	+3.5	-8.3
99	Maryland	Big Ten	47.4	52.6	-5.2	-5.8	24	+2.3	-15.8
100	Iowa	Big Ten	41.5	46.8	-5.2	-7.3	14	-4.3	-42.5
101	Rutgers	Big Ten	47.5	53.1	-5.7	-5.2	13	-4.4	-21.1
102	Texas	Big 12	44.0	49.6	-5.7	-4.6	20	-2.5	-33.9
103	Louisiana	Sun Belt	43.5	49.8	-6.3	-7.5	21	+0.3	-24.4
104	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	42.7	49.1	-6.3	-9.1	16	-5.8	-43.2
105	App State	Sun Belt	39.3	45.6	-6.4	-7.9	28	+6.1	-27.3
106	Wyoming	Mountain West	43.3	50.0	-6.7	-5.3	18	-2.3	-39.1
107	South Florida	American Athletic	40.1	46.8	-6.8	-6.1	23	+5.4	-41.2
108	Nevada	Mountain West	44.3	51.1	-6.8	-6.8	20	-2.5	-30.0
109	Kansas State	Big 12	39.1	46.1	-7.0	-8.5	17	-3.3	-31.7
110	Stanford	Pac-12	40.1	47.6	-7.4	-8.9	10	-4.5	-36.4
111	Minnesota	Big Ten	38.9	46.6	-7.8	-8.1	8	-9.0	-56.1
112	Wisconsin	Big Ten	37.6	46.0	-8.4	-13.6	10	-7.3	-50.0
113	Colorado State	Mountain West	41.6	50.0	-8.4	-12.5	17	-1.1	-30.0
114	Pittsburgh	ACC	38.5	47.0	-8.5	-11.7	16	-3.3	-22.6
115	Boston College	ACC	40.1	49.3	-9.2	-14.5	14	-4.3	-40.4
116	Kentucky	SEC	40.1	49.4	-9.3	-11.2	16	-3.7	-40.0
117	Arizona	Pac-12	39.9	50.5	-10.6	-9.8	20	-2.9	-35.7
118	Kent State	Mid-American	41.7	52.6	-10.9	-11.1	14	-5.7	-45.7
119	Auburn	SEC	36.7	48.4	-11.7	-14.7	16	-10.0	-28.3
120	UNLV	Mountain West	38.5	51.1	-12.6	-13.0	11	-6.9	-48.7
121	San Diego State	Mountain West	32.7	47.4	-14.7	-16.0	15	-5.4	-42.1
122	Tulane	American Athletic	35.7	52.9	-17.2	-16.6	25	-0.2	-30.5
123	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	32.0	50.0	-18.0	-19.0	17	+1.4	-34.9
124	Navy	American Athletic	21.9	45.6	-23.7	-22.4	40	+4.4	-13.6
125	New Mexico	Mountain West	22.4	46.9	-24.5	-24.3	24	-3.6	-30.9
126	Air Force	Mountain West	19.0	44.1	-25.1	-25.1	16	-5.9	-43.6
127	Georgia Tech	ACC	24.3	50.1	-25.8	-28.3	24	+3.1	-14.3
128	Army	FBS Independents	12.4	44.9	-32.5	-32.2	44	+14.2	-5.1

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.