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Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Rice over #15Marshall
200 · on the road · 2020-12-05
+24+44.07%
2Maryland over Penn State
3519 · on the road · 2020-11-07
+27.5+43.54%
3Air Force over Navy
407 · at home · 2020-10-03
+6.5+39.534%
4Pittsburgh over Virginia Tech
4714 · at home · 2020-11-21
+6.5+39.534%
5#20North Carolina over #9Miami
6226 · on the road · 2020-12-12
+3+39.043%
6#5Oklahoma over #8Florida
5520 · neutral site · 2020-12-31
+3+38.043%
7UTEP over UL Monroe
316 · on the road · 2020-09-26
+9.5+34.528%
8Illinois over Nebraska
4123 · on the road · 2020-11-21
+16.5+34.515%
9Kentucky over #18Tennessee
347 · on the road · 2020-10-17
+6.5+33.534%
10Coastal Carolina over Arkansas State
5223 · at home · 2020-10-03
+3.5+32.541%
11Troy over Arkansas State
3810 · on the road · 2020-10-31
+3.5+31.541%
12Kansas State over #3Oklahoma
3835 · on the road · 2020-09-26
+27.5+30.54%
13San José State over New Mexico
3821 · on the road · 2020-10-31
+13.5+30.520%
14Louisiana over Iowa State
3114 · on the road · 2020-09-12
+13+30.021%
15#9Cincinnati over #16SMU
4213 · on the road · 2020-10-25
+1+30.048%
16#23Ball State over #24San José State
3413 · neutral site · 2020-12-31
+9+30.029%
17Tulsa over #11UCF
3426 · on the road · 2020-10-03
+20.8+28.810%
18#2Ohio State over #1Clemson
4928 · neutral site · 2021-01-02
+7+28.033%
19UCLA over California
3410 · at home · 2020-11-15
+3.5+27.541%
20Wyoming over Hawai'i
317 · at home · 2020-10-31
+3+27.043%
21East Carolina over SMU
5238 · at home · 2020-11-28
+12+26.023%
22LSU over #6Florida
3734 · on the road · 2020-12-13
+23+26.08%
23East Carolina over South Florida
4424 · on the road · 2020-10-10
+5.5+25.537%
24Georgia Tech over Duke
5633 · at home · 2020-11-29
+2.5+25.544%
25Louisville over Wake Forest
4521 · at home · 2020-12-12
+1+25.048%
26Syracuse over Georgia Tech
3720 · at home · 2020-09-26
+7.5+24.532%
27Mississippi State over #6LSU
4434 · on the road · 2020-09-26
+14.5+24.518%
28Michigan State over #13Michigan
2724 · on the road · 2020-10-31
+21.5+24.59%
29Eastern Michigan over Western Michigan
5342 · on the road · 2020-12-05
+13.5+24.520%
30New Mexico over Fresno State
4939 · at home · 2020-12-13
+14.5+24.518%
31Arkansas over #16Mississippi State
2114 · on the road · 2020-10-03
+17+24.014%
32NC State over Virginia
3821 · on the road · 2020-10-10
+7+24.033%
33Georgia Tech over Louisville
4627 · at home · 2020-10-09
+4.8+23.838%
34South Alabama over Southern Miss
3221 · on the road · 2020-09-04
+12.5+23.522%
35Boston College over Duke
266 · on the road · 2020-09-19
+3.5+23.541%
36Fresno State over Colorado State
3817 · at home · 2020-10-30
+2.5+23.544%
37Southern Miss over Florida Atlantic
4531 · at home · 2020-12-10
+9.5+23.528%
38#19Iowa over #25Wisconsin
287 · at home · 2020-12-12
+2+23.045%
39Michigan State over #11Northwestern
2920 · at home · 2020-11-28
+13.5+22.520%
40Ball State over #23Buffalo
3828 · neutral site · 2020-12-19
+12.5+22.522%
41Georgia State over East Carolina
4929 · at home · 2020-10-03
+1.5+21.546%
42San José State over San Diego State
2817 · on the road · 2020-11-07
+10.5+21.526%
43#10Indiana over #18Wisconsin
146 · on the road · 2020-12-05
+13.5+21.520%
44Coastal Carolina over Kansas
3823 · on the road · 2020-09-13
+6+21.035%
45#13Indiana over #23Michigan
3821 · at home · 2020-11-07
+4+21.040%
46Hawai'i over Houston
2814 · neutral site · 2020-12-24
+7+21.033%
47Liberty over Western Kentucky
3024 · on the road · 2020-09-19
+14.5+20.518%
48North Texas over Middle Tennessee
5235 · on the road · 2020-10-17
+3.5+20.541%
49Rutgers over Michigan State
3827 · on the road · 2020-10-24
+9.5+20.528%
50Western Kentucky over Charlotte
3719 · on the road · 2020-12-06
+2.5+20.544%
51Mississippi State over Missouri
5132 · at home · 2020-12-19
+1.5+20.546%
52#25San José State over Boise State
3420 · neutral site · 2020-12-19
+6.5+20.534%
53#25Liberty over Virginia Tech
3835 · on the road · 2020-11-07
+17+20.014%
54Utah State over New Mexico
4127 · at home · 2020-11-27
+6+20.035%
55Maryland over Minnesota
4544 · at home · 2020-10-30
+18.5+19.512%
56Rutgers over Purdue
3730 · on the road · 2020-11-28
+12.5+19.522%
57Jacksonville State over Florida International
1910 · on the road · 2020-10-23
+10.5+19.526%
58#8Florida over #5Georgia
4428 · neutral site · 2020-11-07
+3+19.043%
59San José State over Air Force
176 · at home · 2020-10-25
+7.5+18.532%
60Arkansas State over Kansas State
3531 · on the road · 2020-09-12
+14.5+18.518%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.