UTEP vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsULM
- Q4 2:32UTEPRonald Awatt 23 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)31–6
- Q3 0:55ULMJahquan Bloomfield 35 Yd pass from Colby Suits (Zach Elder PAT failed)24–6
- Q2 0:21UTEPGavin Baechle 42 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 6:57UTEPDeion Hankins 8 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)21–0
- Q2 13:33UTEPDeion Hankins 1 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:40UTEPDeion Hankins 2 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTEP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 8.2
- PassGavin Hardison 13/25, 302 YDS
- RushDeion Hankins 22 CAR, 118 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJustin Garrett 7 REC, 120 YDS
- PassColby Suits 17/27, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJosh Johnson 9 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecJevin Frett 2 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTEP up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:33UTEP +20%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
- Q1 7:40UTEP +18%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
- Q2 6:57UTEP +14%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
- Q2 0:21UTEP +5%
Gavin Baechle 42 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. UL Monroe?
UTEP 31, UL Monroe 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ULM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTEP | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 193 |
| 302 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 210 | Rushing yards | 7 |
| 21 | First downs | 6 |
| 11-17 | 3rd down | 0-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 0.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 39:36 | Possession | 20:24 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:33 ULM punt on 4th & 1 at ULM 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:32UTEPRonald Awatt 23 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)31–6
- Q3 0:55ULMJahquan Bloomfield 35 Yd pass from Colby Suits (Zach Elder PAT failed)24–6
- Q2 0:21UTEPGavin Baechle 42 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 6:57UTEPDeion Hankins 8 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)21–0
- Q2 13:33UTEPDeion Hankins 1 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:40UTEPDeion Hankins 2 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1200, UTEP Elo 1056 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #40 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| UTEP | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.1 (#115) | CORE overall | -30.3 (#124) |
| -7 / +11 | offense / defense | -16 / +14 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 3.13 | allowed / drive | 3.54 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →