Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsMSU
- Q4 0:00MSUKalon Gervin 0 Yd Fumble Return 20–29
- Q4 3:35MSUMatt Coghlin 48 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 10:11MSUMatt Coghlin 44 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 13:54NUCam Porter 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)20–17
- Q3 10:39NUPeyton Ramsey 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)13–17
- Q2 6:35NUCharlie Kuhbander 32 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 11:02NUCharlie Kuhbander 42 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 14:55MSUJayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:06MSUMatt Coghlin 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:34MSUJalen Nailor 75 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassPeyton Ramsey 21/43, 210 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDrake Anderson 10 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecRiley Lees 4 REC, 59 YDS
- PassRocky Lombardi 11/27, 167 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushConnor Heyward 24 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecJalen Nailor 3 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:54NU +33%
Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
- Q4 2:52MSU +28%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38
- Q4 3:35MSU +26%
Matt Coghlin 48 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 10:39NU +23%
Peyton Ramsey 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
- Q4 6:14MSU +22%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the 50 yard line
- Q4 6:50NU +20%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Michigan State?
Northwestern 20, Michigan State 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 362 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 195 |
| 18 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 10-21 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/44 | Comp/Att | 11/27 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 27:27 | Possession | 32:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:59 MSU punt on 4th & 6 at NU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00MSUKalon Gervin 0 Yd Fumble Return 20–29
- Q4 3:35MSUMatt Coghlin 48 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 10:11MSUMatt Coghlin 44 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 13:54NUCam Porter 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)20–17
- Q3 10:39NUPeyton Ramsey 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)13–17
- Q2 6:35NUCharlie Kuhbander 32 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 11:02NUCharlie Kuhbander 42 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 14:55MSUJayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:06MSUMatt Coghlin 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:34MSUJalen Nailor 75 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1395, NU Elo 1656 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +8 (31% to win) — 5.5 points clear of MSU's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #20 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #10 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Michigan State leads 41–19 · Michigan State has won 3 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| NU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.8 (#34) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#93) |
| -4 / -13 | offense / defense | -15 / -5 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 0.93 |
| 1.27 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →