Missouri vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsMSST
- Q4 2:34MIZNiko Hea 24 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)32–51
- Q4 5:28MSSTEmmanuel Forbes 29 Yd Interception Return (Jace Christmann Kick)25–51
- Q4 8:39MIZLarry Rountree III 6 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)25–44
- Q4 11:13MSSTBrandon Ruiz 35 Yd Field Goal 18–44
- Q4 13:26MSSTBrad Cumbest 10 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Brandon Ruiz Kick)18–41
- Q3 6:18MIZKeke Chism 2 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Keke Chism Pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion)18–34
- Q3 10:07MSSTJo'Quavious Marks 1 Yd Run (Jaylon Reed Kick)10–34
- Q2 0:00MSSTBrandon Ruiz 43 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 2:49MSSTOsirus Mitchell 7 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Brandon Ruiz Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:47MIZHarrison Mevis 33 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 12:14MSSTBrandon Ruiz 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 3:33MSSTJaden Walley 7 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Brandon Ruiz Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:52MSSTPaul Blackwell 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:07MIZLarry Rountree III 18 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassConnor Bazelak 22/38, 225 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushLarry Rountree III 25 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKeke Chism 6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- PassWill Rogers 21/36, 295 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushWoody Marks 12 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Walley 5 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:33MSST +19%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK)
- Q2 2:49MSST +18%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK)
- Q1 10:07MIZ +17%
Larry Rountree III run for 18 yds for a TD ( KICK)
- Q1 8:52MSST +17%
Tucker Day punt for 46 yds, returns for no gain for a TD Cade Musser fumbled, recovered by MisSt Paul Blackwell for a TD ( KICK)
- Q2 10:44MSST +6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 9 yds to the MisSt 16
- Q3 10:07MSST +6%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Mississippi State?
Missouri 32, Mississippi State 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 342 | Total yards | 446 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 295 |
| 101 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/39 | Comp/Att | 21/38 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 7-73 |
| 28:57 | Possession | 31:03 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:40 MSST punt on 4th & 2 at MIZ 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:34MIZNiko Hea 24 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)32–51
- Q4 5:28MSSTEmmanuel Forbes 29 Yd Interception Return (Jace Christmann Kick)25–51
- Q4 8:39MIZLarry Rountree III 6 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)25–44
- Q4 11:13MSSTBrandon Ruiz 35 Yd Field Goal 18–44
- Q4 13:26MSSTBrad Cumbest 10 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Brandon Ruiz Kick)18–41
- Q3 6:18MIZKeke Chism 2 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Keke Chism Pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion)18–34
- Q3 10:07MSSTJo'Quavious Marks 1 Yd Run (Jaylon Reed Kick)10–34
- Q2 0:00MSSTBrandon Ruiz 43 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 2:49MSSTOsirus Mitchell 7 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Brandon Ruiz Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:47MIZHarrison Mevis 33 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 12:14MSSTBrandon Ruiz 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 3:33MSSTJaden Walley 7 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Brandon Ruiz Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:52MSSTPaul Blackwell 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:07MIZLarry Rountree III 18 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1460, MIZ Elo 1558 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +1.5 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #95 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| MIZ | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#76) | CORE overall | -6.8 (#86) |
| +3 / +6 | offense / defense | -14 / -7 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 1.35 |
| 2.75 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →