Minnesota vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsMD
- OT 0:00MINNSeth Green 2 Yd Run (Brock Walker PAT failed)44–45
- OT 0:00MDTaulia Tagovailoa 2 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)38–45
- Q4 3:38MDJake Funk 19 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)38–38
- Q4 7:06MDJoseph Petrino 51 Yd Field Goal 38–31
- Q4 13:14MDDontay Demus Jr. 15 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)38–28
- Q3 2:03MINNBrock Walker 25 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q3 11:54MINNChris Autman-Bell 39 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Brock Walker Kick)35–21
- Q2 2:46MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)28–21
- Q2 7:42MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:06MINNMohamed Ibrahim 2 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)14–21
- Q1 2:24MDJeshaun Jones 76 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:42MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:48MDTaulia Tagovailoa 39 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:07MDJake Funk 8 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassTanner Morgan 10/15, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMohamed Ibrahim 41 CAR, 207 YDS, 4 TD
- RecChris Autman-Bell 4 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTaulia Tagovailoa 26/35, 394 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJake Funk 21 CAR, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeshaun Jones 3 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:25MD +66%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Dontay Demus Jr
- Q4 3:38MD +49%
Jake Funk run for 19 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- OT 0:00MD +32%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q4 2:50MINN +30%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST down
- Q1 2:24MD +21%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 76 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q2 12:06MINN +20%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Maryland?
Minnesota 44, Maryland 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MINN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MINN | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 451 | Total yards | 675 |
| 189 | Passing yards | 394 |
| 262 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 24 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 3-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/15 | Comp/Att | 26/35 |
| 12.6 | Yards per pass | 11.3 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 9.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-21 | Penalties | 10-97 |
| 33:12 | Possession | 26:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:08 MD punt on 4th & 2 at MINN 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.38 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00MINNSeth Green 2 Yd Run (Brock Walker PAT failed)44–45
- OT 0:00MDTaulia Tagovailoa 2 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)38–45
- Q4 3:38MDJake Funk 19 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)38–38
- Q4 7:06MDJoseph Petrino 51 Yd Field Goal 38–31
- Q4 13:14MDDontay Demus Jr. 15 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)38–28
- Q3 2:03MINNBrock Walker 25 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q3 11:54MINNChris Autman-Bell 39 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Brock Walker Kick)35–21
- Q2 2:46MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)28–21
- Q2 7:42MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:06MINNMohamed Ibrahim 2 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)14–21
- Q1 2:24MDJeshaun Jones 76 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:42MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:48MDTaulia Tagovailoa 39 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:07MDJake Funk 8 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1202, MINN Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD +15.4 (17% to win) — 3.1 points clear of MD's market line of +18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #7 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · Minnesota has won 2 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| MINN | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 (#98) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#80) |
| +4 / +15 | offense / defense | +1 / +5 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 2.75 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 31% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →