Illinois vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsNEB
- Q4 2:12NEBLevi Falck 4 Yd pass from Adrian Martinez (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–23
- Q4 10:14ILLJames McCourt 21 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q3 2:31ILLBrandon Peters 1 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)38–17
- Q3 6:48NEBLuke McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)31–17
- Q3 8:23ILLJames McCourt 24 Yd Field Goal 31–10
- Q2 5:50ILLMike Epstein 1 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)28–10
- Q2 7:32NEBConnor Culp 30 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 13:48ILLJosh Imatorbhebhe 28 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)21–7
- Q1 5:39ILLChase Brown 2 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:20NEBLuke McCaffrey 5 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:31ILLChase Brown 3 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 3.9
- PassBrandon Peters 18/25, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMike Epstein 13 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Imatorbhebhe 4 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke McCaffrey 15/26, 134 YDS, 3 INT
- RushLuke McCaffrey 26 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWan'Dale Robinson 6 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:48ILL +20%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 28 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
- Q2 5:50ILL +19%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
- Q1 5:39ILL +19%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
- Q1 13:31ILL +16%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
- Q1 9:20NEB +15%
Luke McCaffrey run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)
- Q3 6:48NEB +12%
Luke McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Culp KICK) ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Nebraska?
Illinois 41, Nebraska 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 490 | Total yards | 392 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 285 | Rushing yards | 215 |
| 25 | First downs | 25 |
| 11-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 3-31 | Penalties | 7-66 |
| 36:21 | Possession | 23:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:14 ILL field goal on 4th & 3 at NEB 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:12NEBLevi Falck 4 Yd pass from Adrian Martinez (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–23
- Q4 10:14ILLJames McCourt 21 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q3 2:31ILLBrandon Peters 1 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)38–17
- Q3 6:48NEBLuke McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)31–17
- Q3 8:23ILLJames McCourt 24 Yd Field Goal 31–10
- Q2 5:50ILLMike Epstein 1 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)28–10
- Q2 7:32NEBConnor Culp 30 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 13:48ILLJosh Imatorbhebhe 28 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)21–7
- Q1 5:39ILLChase Brown 2 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:20NEBLuke McCaffrey 5 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:31ILLChase Brown 3 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1544, ILL Elo 1339 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -10.6 (77% to win) — 5.9 points clear of ILL's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #10 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Nebraska leads 14–7–1 · 36% have been one-possession games
| ILL | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.3 (#107) | CORE overall | +1.9 (#60) |
| -1 / +14 | offense / defense | +2 / +0 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →