Michigan State vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsMICH
- Q4 0:37MICHHassan Haskins 2 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)27–24
- Q4 5:11MSUConnor Heyward 13 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)27–17
- Q3 4:23MSUMatt Coghlin 51 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 8:00MICHBlake Corum 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)17–17
- Q3 12:26MSUMatt Coghlin 27 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 2:49MICHQuinn Nordin 23 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 9:40MSUConnor Heyward 2 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:01MICHBlake Corum 8 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:57MSURicky White 30 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MICH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.9
- MSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassRocky Lombardi 17/32, 323 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordon Simmons 14 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecRicky White III 8 REC, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoe Milton III 32/51, 300 YDS
- RushJoe Milton III 12 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecRoman Wilson 5 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:11MSU +39%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
- Q4 0:23MSU +22%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST down
- Q3 8:00MICH +22%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
- Q4 9:48MSU +20%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor
- Q2 9:40MSU +19%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
- Q4 0:37MICH +16%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Michigan?
Michigan State 27, Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 452 |
| 323 | Passing yards | 300 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/32 | Comp/Att | 32/52 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-65 | Penalties | 10-86 |
| 26:13 | Possession | 33:47 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:23 MSU field goal on 4th & 2 at MICH 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:37MICHHassan Haskins 2 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)27–24
- Q4 5:11MSUConnor Heyward 13 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)27–17
- Q3 4:23MSUMatt Coghlin 51 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 8:00MICHBlake Corum 1 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)17–17
- Q3 12:26MSUMatt Coghlin 27 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 2:49MICHQuinn Nordin 23 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 9:40MSUConnor Heyward 2 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:01MICHBlake Corum 8 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:57MSURicky White 30 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1856, MSU Elo 1495 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -16.8 (86% to win) — 5.2 points clear of MSU's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #5 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #12 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Michigan leads 75–38–5 · Michigan has won 4 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| MSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#93) | CORE overall | -7.9 (#90) |
| -15 / -5 | offense / defense | +1 / +9 |
| 0.93 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.80 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →