Coastal Carolina vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsKU
- Q4 1:13CCUMassimo Biscardi 27 Yd Field Goal 38–23
- Q4 7:00KUKwamie Lassiter II 5 Yd pass from Miles Kendrick (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–23
- Q4 9:55CCUGrayson McCall 2 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)35–17
- Q3 0:04KUVelton Gardner 61 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–17
- Q3 2:29KUAndrew Parchment 14 Yd pass from Miles Kendrick (Miles Kendrick Pass to Kwamie Lassiter II for Two-Point Conversion)28–11
- Q2 0:00KUJacob Borcila 47 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 0:55CCUJaivon Heiligh 25 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)28–0
- Q2 10:57CCUIsaiah Likely 2 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:37CCUC.J. Brewer 2 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:22CCUGrayson McCall 12 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 3.5
- PassGrayson McCall 11/18, 133 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCJ Marable 21 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecJaivon Heiligh 3 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMiles Kendrick 15/24, 156 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushVelton Gardner 11 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKwamie Lassiter II 5 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:22CCU +19%
Grayson McCall run for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q1 2:37CCU +17%
Grayson McCall pass complete to C.J. Brewer for 2 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q2 10:57CCU +11%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 2 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q3 0:04KU +9%
Velton Gardner run for 61 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 9:55CCU +7%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q4 15:00CCU +5%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the CCaro 22
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Kansas?
Coastal Carolina 38, Kansas 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CCU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 367 |
| 133 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 185 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 19 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 11/18 | Comp/Att | 21/35 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-48 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 30:25 | Possession | 29:35 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:15 CCU punt on 4th & 1 at CCU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:13CCUMassimo Biscardi 27 Yd Field Goal 38–23
- Q4 7:00KUKwamie Lassiter II 5 Yd pass from Miles Kendrick (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–23
- Q4 9:55CCUGrayson McCall 2 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)35–17
- Q3 0:04KUVelton Gardner 61 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–17
- Q3 2:29KUAndrew Parchment 14 Yd pass from Miles Kendrick (Miles Kendrick Pass to Kwamie Lassiter II for Two-Point Conversion)28–11
- Q2 0:00KUJacob Borcila 47 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 0:55CCUJaivon Heiligh 25 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)28–0
- Q2 10:57CCUIsaiah Likely 2 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:37CCUC.J. Brewer 2 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:22CCUGrayson McCall 12 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1315, CCU Elo 1316 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU -2.4 (57% to win) — 3.6 points clear of CCU's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #68 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| CCU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.2 (#12) | CORE overall | -25.1 (#119) |
| +13 / -4 | offense / defense | -20 / +5 |
| 3.43 | points / drive | 0.81 |
| 1.81 | allowed / drive | 3.18 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →