LSU vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:23LSUCade York 57 Yd Field Goal 37–34
- Q4 2:51FLAEvan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 13:14LSUTre Bradford 4 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)34–31
- Q3 3:11FLAKadarius Toney 9 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)27–31
- Q3 6:52FLAKyle Trask 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)27–24
- Q3 8:29LSUCade York 30 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q2 0:00LSUCade York 39 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:33LSUKayshon Boutte 34 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)21–17
- Q2 2:25FLAJacob Copeland 19 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)14–17
- Q2 6:25FLAEvan McPherson 23 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 12:59LSUEli Ricks 68 Yd Interception Return (Cade York Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:21LSUJaray Jenkins 5 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:01FLAKyle Trask 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMax Johnson 21/36, 239 YDS, 3 TD
- RushChris Curry 17 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecKayshon Boutte 5 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyle Trask 29/47, 474 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMalik Davis 7 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecKadarius Toney 9 REC, 182 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:14LSU +35%
Tre Bradford 4 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)
- Q4 2:38LSU +34%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the LSU 25
- Q4 2:51FLA +29%
Evan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 3:11FLA +28%
Kadarius Toney 9 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)
- Q3 6:52FLA +27%
Kyle Trask 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)
- Q2 0:33LSU +23%
Kayshon Boutte 34 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Florida?
LSU 37, Florida 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total yards | 609 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 474 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 24 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/36 | Comp/Att | 29/48 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-49 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 31:54 | Possession | 28:06 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:23 LSU punt on 4th & 1 at LSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:23LSUCade York 57 Yd Field Goal 37–34
- Q4 2:51FLAEvan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 13:14LSUTre Bradford 4 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)34–31
- Q3 3:11FLAKadarius Toney 9 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)27–31
- Q3 6:52FLAKyle Trask 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)27–24
- Q3 8:29LSUCade York 30 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q2 0:00LSUCade York 39 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:33LSUKayshon Boutte 34 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)21–17
- Q2 2:25FLAJacob Copeland 19 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)14–17
- Q2 6:25FLAEvan McPherson 23 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 12:59LSUEli Ricks 68 Yd Interception Return (Cade York Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:21LSUJaray Jenkins 5 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:01FLAKyle Trask 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1891, LSU Elo 1743 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -8.3 (72% to win) — 14.7 points clear of LSU's market line of -23. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #4 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #3 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →LSU leads 35–34–3 · 36% have been one-possession games
| LSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 (#91) | CORE overall | +14.9 (#17) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | +14 / -1 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →