Fresno State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsUNM
- Q4 1:08FRESMac Dalena 24 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Jake Haener Pass to Zane Pope for Two-Point Conversion)39–49
- Q4 2:33UNMBobby Cole 9 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–49
- Q4 7:26UNMBobby Cole 35 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–42
- Q4 10:20UNMNathaniel Jones 10 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–35
- Q3 4:49UNMConner Kinslow 49 Yd pass from Isaiah Chavez (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:53FRESJake Haener 3 Yd Run (Asa Fuller Kick)31–21
- Q2 5:23UNMBobby Cole 4 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)24–21
- Q2 8:47FRESJordan Mims 84 Yd Run (Asa Fuller Kick)24–14
- Q2 10:27FRESAsa Fuller 30 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 11:54UNMNathaniel Jones 3 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:54FRESZane Pope 16 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Asa Fuller Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:34UNMIsaiah Chavez 3 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:28FRESJalen Cropper 10 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Asa Fuller Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FRES played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 13.6 vs 3rd & 6.8
- PassJake Haener 26/43, 350 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Mims 3 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Moreno-Cropper 12 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- PassIsaiah Chavez 14/18, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBobby Cole 18 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMarcus Williams 3 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:26UNM +42%
Bobby Cole run for 35 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
- Q4 10:20UNM +41%
Nathaniel Jones run for 10 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
- Q3 4:49UNM +19%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Conner Kinslow for 49 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
- Q2 11:54UNM +16%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
- Q3 6:53FRES +15%
Jake Haener run for 3 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
- Q4 10:10FRES +15%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. New Mexico?
Fresno State 39, New Mexico 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 408 | Total yards | 495 |
| 350 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 58 | Rushing yards | 299 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 11-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/43 | Comp/Att | 14/18 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 8-73 |
| 28:27 | Possession | 31:33 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:21 UNM punt on 4th & 3 at UNM 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:08FRESMac Dalena 24 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Jake Haener Pass to Zane Pope for Two-Point Conversion)39–49
- Q4 2:33UNMBobby Cole 9 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–49
- Q4 7:26UNMBobby Cole 35 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–42
- Q4 10:20UNMNathaniel Jones 10 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–35
- Q3 4:49UNMConner Kinslow 49 Yd pass from Isaiah Chavez (Donovan Murphree Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:53FRESJake Haener 3 Yd Run (Asa Fuller Kick)31–21
- Q2 5:23UNMBobby Cole 4 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)24–21
- Q2 8:47FRESJordan Mims 84 Yd Run (Asa Fuller Kick)24–14
- Q2 10:27FRESAsa Fuller 30 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 11:54UNMNathaniel Jones 3 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:54FRESZane Pope 16 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Asa Fuller Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:34UNMIsaiah Chavez 3 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:28FRESJalen Cropper 10 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Asa Fuller Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1172, FRES Elo 1489 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM +10.3 (26% to win) — 4.2 points clear of UNM's market line of +14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #13 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Fresno State leads 16–6 · 23% have been one-possession games
| FRES | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#84) | CORE overall | -12.4 (#100) |
| -0 / +5 | offense / defense | -5 / +7 |
| 2.74 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 2.74 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →