Duke vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsGT
- Q4 4:42GTDontae Smith 22 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)33–56
- Q4 10:13GTDontae Smith 36 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)33–49
- Q3 0:33GTAdonicas Sanders 24 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)33–42
- Q3 2:15DUKEJarett Garner 28 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Charlie Ham Kick)33–35
- Q3 10:54GTJalen Camp 24 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)26–35
- Q2 0:07DUKECharlie Ham 35 Yd Field Goal 26–28
- Q2 1:42GTJordan Domineck 0 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Stewart Kick)23–28
- Q2 1:57DUKEShaka Heyward Safety23–21
- Q2 2:23DUKEMataeo Durant 30 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Charlie Ham Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:15GTJahmyr Gibbs 26 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:50DUKEMataeo Durant 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:11GTMalachi Carter 12 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:39DUKEShaka Heyward 0 Yd Fumble Return (Charlie Ham Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:44GTJahmyr Gibbs 61 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChase Brice 19/40, 273 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeon Jackson 9 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecDennis Smith 2 REC, 57 YDS
- PassJeff Sims 13/23, 146 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeff Sims 12 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecJahmyr Gibbs 4 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGT up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:54GT +31%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q3 0:33GT +28%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q3 2:15DUKE +28%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 28 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
- Q2 1:42GT +23%
Chase Brice sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 2 yards Chase Brice fumbled, recovered by GTech Jordan Domineck, return for 0 yards for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q2 2:23DUKE +23%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 30 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
- Q2 9:15GT +22%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 26 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Georgia Tech?
Duke 33, Georgia Tech 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 382 | Total yards | 523 |
| 314 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 377 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 23/47 | Comp/Att | 13/23 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 7.9 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-63 | Penalties | 11-112 |
| 32:03 | Possession | 27:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:09 DUKE punt on 4th & 12 at GT 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:42GTDontae Smith 22 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)33–56
- Q4 10:13GTDontae Smith 36 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)33–49
- Q3 0:33GTAdonicas Sanders 24 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)33–42
- Q3 2:15DUKEJarett Garner 28 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Charlie Ham Kick)33–35
- Q3 10:54GTJalen Camp 24 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)26–35
- Q2 0:07DUKECharlie Ham 35 Yd Field Goal 26–28
- Q2 1:42GTJordan Domineck 0 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Stewart Kick)23–28
- Q2 1:57DUKEShaka Heyward Safety23–21
- Q2 2:23DUKEMataeo Durant 30 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Charlie Ham Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:15GTJahmyr Gibbs 26 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:50DUKEMataeo Durant 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:11GTMalachi Carter 12 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:39DUKEShaka Heyward 0 Yd Fumble Return (Charlie Ham Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:44GTJahmyr Gibbs 61 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1247, DUKE Elo 1424 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT +4.7 (39% to win) — 2.7 points clear of DUKE's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #87 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 56–35–1 · Georgia Tech has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#112) | CORE overall | -3.6 (#78) |
| -10 / +5 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 1.71 | points / drive | 1.82 |
| 2.70 | allowed / drive | 2.69 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →