Mississippi State vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsLSU
- Q4 3:39MSSTOsirus Mitchell 24 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)44–34
- Q4 7:27MSSTBrandon Ruiz 43 Yd Field Goal 37–34
- Q4 9:37LSUCade York 40 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 11:01LSUTerrace Marshall Jr. 33 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)34–31
- Q4 14:14MSSTAustin Williams 9 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)34–24
- Q3 4:46MSSTKylin Hill 75 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)27–24
- Q3 5:01LSUTerrace Marshall Jr. 37 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)20–24
- Q3 6:23MSSTBrandon Ruiz 24 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 9:33LSUCade York 26 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 2:27MSSTOsirus Mitchell 43 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)17–14
- Q2 5:20LSUArik Gilbert 2 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:45MSSTTyrell Shavers 31 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:45LSUJabril Cox 14 Yd Interception Return (Cade York Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:47MSSTBrandon Ruiz 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassKJ Costello 36/60, 623 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT
- RushKylin Hill 7 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecOsirus Mitchell 7 REC, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMyles Brennan 27/46, 345 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushChris Curry 9 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecTerrace Marshall Jr. 8 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:01LSU +36%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
- Q4 14:14MSST +35%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q4 3:39MSST +34%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 24 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q3 4:46MSST +27%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q4 6:15MSST +24%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton, broken up by Jay Ward
- Q4 7:27MSST +24%
Brandon Ruiz 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. LSU?
Mississippi State 44, LSU 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSST | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 632 | Total yards | 425 |
| 623 | Passing yards | 345 |
| 9 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 24 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 36/60 | Comp/Att | 27/46 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 0.6 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-40 | Penalties | 7-31 |
| 30:28 | Possession | 29:32 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:39MSSTOsirus Mitchell 24 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)44–34
- Q4 7:27MSSTBrandon Ruiz 43 Yd Field Goal 37–34
- Q4 9:37LSUCade York 40 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 11:01LSUTerrace Marshall Jr. 33 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)34–31
- Q4 14:14MSSTAustin Williams 9 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)34–24
- Q3 4:46MSSTKylin Hill 75 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)27–24
- Q3 5:01LSUTerrace Marshall Jr. 37 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)20–24
- Q3 6:23MSSTBrandon Ruiz 24 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 9:33LSUCade York 26 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 2:27MSSTOsirus Mitchell 43 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)17–14
- Q2 5:20LSUArik Gilbert 2 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:45MSSTTyrell Shavers 31 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Brandon Ruiz Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:45LSUJabril Cox 14 Yd Interception Return (Cade York Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:47MSSTBrandon Ruiz 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 2061, MSST Elo 1550 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -22.8 (92% to win) — 8.3 points clear of LSU's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #12 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #4 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →LSU leads 74–37–3 · LSU has won 3 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| MSST | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.8 (#86) | CORE overall | -8.3 (#91) |
| -14 / -7 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 1.35 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +27 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →