North Carolina vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsMIA
- Q4 3:58UNCJavonte Williams 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)62–26
- Q4 11:00UNCKamari Morales 5 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)55–26
- Q4 12:42MIACam'Ron Harris 6 Yd Run (D'Eriq King Pass to Will Mallory for Two-Point Conversion)48–26
- Q4 14:16UNCSam Howell 1 Yd pass from Rontavius Groves (Grayson Atkins Kick)48–18
- Q3 6:49MIABrevin Jordan 76 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (D'Eriq King Pass to Dee Wiggins for Two-Point Conversion)41–18
- Q3 7:24UNCSam Howell 2 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)41–10
- Q2 0:10MIAMike Harley 2 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Jose Borregales Kick)34–10
- Q2 3:05UNCGrayson Atkins 25 Yd Field Goal 34–3
- Q2 7:09UNCMichael Carter 25 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)31–3
- Q2 10:48UNCGrayson Atkins 21 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q1 0:15UNCMichael Carter 65 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)21–3
- Q1 2:33UNCJavonte Williams 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)14–3
- Q1 8:53UNCJavonte Williams 2 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:46MIAJose Borregales 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassSam Howell 14/19, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMichael Carter 24 CAR, 308 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDyami Brown 4 REC, 167 YDS
- PassD'Eriq King 18/30, 239 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushD'Eriq King 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecBrevin Jordan 6 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:33UNC +19%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
- Q1 8:53UNC +18%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
- Q1 0:15UNC +15%
Michael Carter run for 65 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
- Q1 11:46MIA +7%
Jose Borregales 47 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Miami?
North Carolina 62, Miami 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 778 | Total yards | 314 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 554 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 31 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/20 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 11.2 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 10.1 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 7-68 |
| 40:19 | Possession | 19:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:48 UNC field goal on 4th & 4 at MIA 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:58UNCJavonte Williams 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)62–26
- Q4 11:00UNCKamari Morales 5 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)55–26
- Q4 12:42MIACam'Ron Harris 6 Yd Run (D'Eriq King Pass to Will Mallory for Two-Point Conversion)48–26
- Q4 14:16UNCSam Howell 1 Yd pass from Rontavius Groves (Grayson Atkins Kick)48–18
- Q3 6:49MIABrevin Jordan 76 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (D'Eriq King Pass to Dee Wiggins for Two-Point Conversion)41–18
- Q3 7:24UNCSam Howell 2 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)41–10
- Q2 0:10MIAMike Harley 2 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Jose Borregales Kick)34–10
- Q2 3:05UNCGrayson Atkins 25 Yd Field Goal 34–3
- Q2 7:09UNCMichael Carter 25 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)31–3
- Q2 10:48UNCGrayson Atkins 21 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q1 0:15UNCMichael Carter 65 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)21–3
- Q1 2:33UNCJavonte Williams 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)14–3
- Q1 8:53UNCJavonte Williams 2 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:46MIAJose Borregales 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1764, UNC Elo 1757 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -2.7 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #82 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #24 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →North Carolina leads 16–11 · North Carolina has won 5 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| UNC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.7 (#9) | CORE overall | +10.4 (#27) |
| +19 / +1 | offense / defense | +5 / -5 |
| 3.43 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →