North Texas vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 3:59UNTEthan Mooney 44 Yd Field Goal 52–35
- Q4 8:40MTSUChaton Mobley 30 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)49–35
- Q4 11:10UNTJason Bean 48 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)49–28
- Q3 0:10UNTJaelon Darden 55 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Ethan Mooney Kick)42–28
- Q3 6:44UNTDeonte Simpson 9 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Ethan Mooney Kick)35–28
- Q3 13:32UNTJason Bean 48 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)28–28
- Q2 0:58UNTJason Bean 4 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)21–28
- Q2 3:58MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 24 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)14–28
- Q2 9:39UNTDeAndre Torrey 60 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:35MTSUGregory Grate Jr. 20 Yd Fumble Return (Crews Holt Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:23MTSUJarrin Pierce 2 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:39UNTDeAndre Torrey 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:35MTSUChaton Mobley 3 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJason Bean 12/17, 181 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJason Bean 10 CAR, 169 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJaelon Darden 10 REC, 204 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAsher O'Hara 18/29, 164 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushChaton Mobley 14 CAR, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCJ Windham 4 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:44UNT +27%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q3 0:10UNT +24%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q3 13:32UNT +23%
Jason Bean run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q1 2:23MTSU +18%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
- Q1 6:39UNT +17%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q1 8:35MTSU +17%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 3 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Middle Tennessee?
North Texas 52, Middle Tennessee 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MTSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 768 | Total yards | 432 |
| 306 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 462 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 32 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/28 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 9.4 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-61 | Penalties | 6-54 |
| 27:52 | Possession | 32:08 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:39 UNT punt on 4th & 16 at MTSU 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:59UNTEthan Mooney 44 Yd Field Goal 52–35
- Q4 8:40MTSUChaton Mobley 30 Yd Run (Crews Holt Kick)49–35
- Q4 11:10UNTJason Bean 48 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)49–28
- Q3 0:10UNTJaelon Darden 55 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Ethan Mooney Kick)42–28
- Q3 6:44UNTDeonte Simpson 9 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Ethan Mooney Kick)35–28
- Q3 13:32UNTJason Bean 48 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)28–28
- Q2 0:58UNTJason Bean 4 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)21–28
- Q2 3:58MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 24 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)14–28
- Q2 9:39UNTDeAndre Torrey 60 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:35MTSUGregory Grate Jr. 20 Yd Fumble Return (Crews Holt Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:23MTSUJarrin Pierce 2 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:39UNTDeAndre Torrey 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:35MTSUChaton Mobley 3 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Crews Holt Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1251, UNT Elo 1230 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -3.2 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #80 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →North Texas leads 10–7 · North Texas has won 2 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| UNT | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.6 (#111) | CORE overall | -12.0 (#99) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | -1 / +11 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 1.76 |
| 3.41 | allowed / drive | 3.15 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →